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And so anything south of Tampa will be on the "bad" side of surge and wind force?
If the storm goes into FL south of Tampa (which is what surge maps are currently showing) in the middle of the NHC cone essentially, but if comes up the coast along the coast then Tampa gets the bad side/corner as well. High winds will still be spread out over a large area still and Tampa could still catch part of the eye wall but still too soon to know for sure.
Right, the original projection of the spaghetti plots all showed it making a sharp 90-degree turn that took it over the East side of FL or even out over the ocean. And they said "we know it's going to make a right turn, we just don't know exactly when." So millions of SW FL residents based their decision on the prediction it would hit on the East Coast. And then suddenly today, when it's too late to join the millions of cars clogging up the roads and running out of gas, the European model turns the path west and not really a 90-degree turn anymore. Sooo, now it's heading straight up past me in Bradenton to Tampa. And hopefully it will change again tomorrow, because it never hits exactly where you think it's going to.
Yes....so many people w/o "special" knowledge had doubts about a hugely powerful storm's capacity to make such a dramatic shift in direction
Looks like our skepticism was more attuned to reality of the situation
Don't make me feel,any better
Thanks so much to the people leading discussion on this forum
Please don't think I criticize your sharing of information and your professional attitude
Predicting a hurricane is like predicting a craps game in many ways--IMO
You can predict odds but not control outcome...
The cone map (only shows possible center point location) shows irma could still come close to the E coast of FL from crossing over FL but threat is lower now. Still will feel the storm but if storm rides up more along the west coast then the east coast would be out of the core strongest winds and surge.
I use the NOAA Hurricane Sectors page to look at all the wind patterns to the north and west of Irma, and points in between. If I were on any of the coastal areas between the FL panhandle to Texas, I would be watching very closely. For a couple days now, it has looked like it could/would head into the Gulf of Mexico and build up to a major killer storm.
Then again, I never could see how Sandy was going to make that left turn that the experts predicted.
If the storm goes into FL south of Tampa (which is what surge maps are currently showing) in the middle of the NHC cone essentially, but if comes up the coast along the coast then Tampa gets the bad side/corner as well. High winds will still be spread out over a large area still and Tampa could still catch part of the eye wall but still too soon to know for sure.
Yes...the actual physical coast landing can shift within miles -- almost impossible to predict with total accuracy
Still time to relocate in immediate Sarasota- Tampa area to,go inland if you have available location...
Do you have any idea when it WILL likely be too dangerous to try to move to "safer" location because of wind/water on streets?
recent track change shows why evacuating from the east to west coast of Florida rather than leaving Florida entirely would be a poor choice
Yup, happens with snowstorms too.... exacts aren't known till 12-36hrs and a 100 mile track shift easily happens 1-2 days before. I had forgotten we were 3 days out and got caught up with the consensus..
but 2 hours later I corrected that statement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
I might have to eat my words if this becomes a trend now. I forgot we were still 3 days away. Lessons taught me models can shift back within 72 hrs.
Euro went west and stronger. Goodbye Miami and now puts Hurricane force into Western side of south Florida. I like the "better safe then sorry" thinking. Head north!
Yes...the actual physical coast landing can shift within miles -- almost impossible to predict with total accuracy
Still time to relocate in immediate Sarasota- Tampa area to,go inland if you have available location...
Do you have any idea when it WILL likely be too dangerous to try to move to "safer" location because of wind/water on streets?
Time frame overnight/this AM did indeed change a little, allowing for more time to leave for those who wish to today (VERY southern tip of FL winds starting to pick up already though). Here's lateast tropical storm force wind (39mph or higher) arrival time maps (updated with 5amEST advisory, will update again when 11am comes out). Tropical Storm force is usually the threshold police use on when major bridges will be closed to drivers or when they start to not respond to calls for help sometimes (some have a higher wind limit just depends) So you want to be where you are going to stay for the storm by then if you can really.
Here's the earliest arrival time of TropicalStorm winds:
But here's the most likely arrival time of TropicalStorm winds:
I don't know how to embed videos but look at this NOAA Eastern US Water Vapor page and notice the movement from all over the US pushing downward toward Florida. You can see a lot of southward pressure coming to bear on Irma over the next few days. I just don't see how it is not going to move into the Gulf.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,798,262 times
Reputation: 1932
41a
present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 10 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 930 mb eye diameter 30 nm max sustained winds 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt.......100ne 90se 50sw 80nw. 34 kt.......
160ne 160se 120sw 170nw.
12 ft seas..480ne 30se 30sw 90nw. Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 22.5n 78.8w at 09/0900z at 09/0600z center was located near 22.3n 78.3w
Forecast valid 12/0600z 32.5n 84.5w...inland max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt. 34 kt...120ne 180se 60sw 60nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm on day 4 and 200 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day
outlook valid 13/0600z 35.5n 88.0w...inland max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Outlook valid 14/0600z 36.0n 87.5w...post-trop/inland max wind 20 kt...gusts 30 kt
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