Atlantic - Irma forms August 30, 2017 (sun, South, maximum, minimum)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Sollaces

Local news (Houston) said Irma will be heading up the east coast and may bump New England and go out into the Atlantic. Mention of another storm behind Irma which will be Jose if all is said and done.

Thanks. I always wonder what local news elsewhere is saying. Thanks. Yeah, while the chance is still there I think entering the gulf has gotten slimmer now. I dont think it will anymore.

Originally Posted by Infamous92

It isn't very often that you see model runs depicting a direct landfall on NYC (a difficult feat due to its geographic position). Very ominous threat indeed. Still more than a week out, but I think an east coast strike (or brush) is more likely than not.

At the risk of sounding crazy, I just *knew* Sandy was going to affect us (NYC Area) in one way or another from far out. I don't have that same feel with Irma, at least not yet.

Yeah, I have to check the Sandy thread I had going in 2012 but I think it was like 7 days out when Euro was consistently showing it then others followed and I was glued to every update.


NWS Gray Maine mentioning Irma now. Current position wouldnt be a threat but that SW dip its going to take makes it favorable for a hit.

National Weather Service Gray ME
608 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Finally some attention remains on Hurricane Irma despite any
potential impacts being a week or more away and it being over
1500 miles from the nearest land. Its current position in the
Atlantic Basin continues to suggest impacts to the East Coast
are unlikely...however a SW push over the next couple of days
will bring Irma into a more favorable location. Ensemble
guidance continues to show a wide range of solutions...so any
forecast is low confidence at this time. Continue to follow the
National Hurricane Center for the latest information...and
regardless of eventual impacts or lack thereof from Irma it is
always a good idea to review your hurricane preparedness and
emergency kits

[Spazkat9696]

Originally Posted by Sollaces

Local news (Houston) said Irma will be heading up the east coast and may bump New England and go out into the Atlantic. Mention of another storm behind Irma which will be Jose if all is said and done.

Virginia Beach news seems to be worried, but saying it's too early to tell. It may or may not hit the east coast.

[BPt111]

I saw model showing NYC Long Island area is direct hit as Cat 2 or 3 hurricane but still too early

[Psychoma]

11pEST 1 September 2017: Winds 115mph, moving W 14mph, pressure 967mb. Per NHC "It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the continental United States."

Trend has it more North of the islands slightly each time:



Looks like maybe another eyewall replacement cycle: eye open, now eye closed:





It's fine/great to talk about/see specific model runs but just keep in mind that 5 days out the average position error is 200+ miles off, so something for end of next week is highly subject to change. Ok carry on :-)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

:

It's fine/great to talk about/see specific model runs but just keep in mind that 5 days out the average position error is 200+ miles off, so something for end of next week is highly subject to change. Ok carry on :-)

Dont get me started on NHC. Wanna see what they had with Sandy vs the models? And yes other times as well. NHC plays catch up all the time. I'd rather find the consistency and consensus of models than put faith in NHC 3-5 day position.

[BPt111]

84-86 degrees water temp

[BPt111]

GFS 12:00 AM update

[BPt111]

Comparison of (sea surface temperatures) for Sandy & Hurricane Irma

[BPt111]

Not forecast we still couple of days away it something to watch for

CT getting 10 inches of rain or even more NYC, Philly, West CT, NJ hard hit areas

[BPt111]

Multiple GFS runs over the last few days have brought Irma to the Northeast