Atlantic - Irma forms August 30, 2017 (warm, storm, city, cyclone)

[AzScorpion12]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

We've gone from getting out to staying to maybe be going to shelter and now getting out again. I don't know what to do. Try to get on the road now, roads are pretty clear now, and stay with a friend farther nother, or just go to a shelter here and wait it out there.

I am freaking out about this. And it's all , eh, may change, eh, change back, eh no one knows for sure. Just talked to a lady 2 hours ago that tried to leave on Weds and again, turned back because a 3 hour drive was taking 9 hours. these are people's lives. Scott should have opened BOTH LANES of 75 for people to evacuate. If there is a huge death toll, he has blood on his hands.

Oh please, You're the only one to blame for staying there this long. Sorry but you're the one who needs to make a decision and stick with it. Personally I would've got the heck out of there asap! Then again this was a huge reason I decided not to live in FL. Sold all my property in Port Charlotte right after Charley and never came back. As far as opening with lanes to go north thats just a ridiculous idea! How do you expect any traveling south to get there? There are many Drs,nurses,emt's and gas tankers still in the area.

Originally Posted by AnotherTouchOfWhimsy

Any chance it won't turn for a long time? Or could this be like the track Charley took?

The problem with these is anything can happen at the last minute. Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and it took a hard right up the Charlotte Harbor and wiped out PC instead. Right now there's really no telling where it's going everything is really just a guess at this point.

[Poseidon3290]

so NBC news 4 NY, just had miami OUT of the cone.. and all of the east coast..

[Psychoma]

A reminder the official surge maps for this westward / west coast FL shift will come out around 12a-1230a tonight with the 11pm data/track input. (*depends on final track though*). This will likely be some scary far reaching potential surge for high population centers. West coast areas are much more susceptible to surge with shallower waters even up to Apalachee Bay south of Tallahassee. Look on google maps too...there are a LOT of water based communities near the water and areas susceptible to surge coming from the south (Ft Myers, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte, Tampa, St. Petersburg, etc )

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by pjb3589

This is probably a dumb question so forgive me, but what exactly is pulling Irma so far west? Shouldn't it be pulled east by Jose?

Not a dumb question. It is a matter of pressure.

Florida is around 1013 MB pressure and just South of Cuba it is 1002. Further Yucatan has been around 1008 and South America 1010.

The wind goes from higher pressure to low.

North America as a whole is higher pressure now than South America so there is a lot of wind heading South.

One reason pressure has been so low near Yucatan is all the rain associated with Katia.

I have never seen this turn to the North that is predicted. I always said Irma would enter the Gulf.

Of course I am just a sailor so what do I know.

Things will change if the pressure drops over Florida. This I gather is supposed to happen.

[Psychoma]

Irma appears to almost be trying to parallel the coast of Cuba last few satellite frames, but hard to tell with just a few images. This would signal the start /hint of the turn if so.

[pbmaise]

Forecast 40

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.

12 FT SEAS..420NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 77.7W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.6N 79.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 80.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 200NW.


***Comment 24.5N - 23.3N is 1.2 Degrees or 72 Nautical Miles. This means Irma is predicted to be moving North at 6 knots. (6.9 mph). I suggest ear plugs may help reduce some stress because the noise will be incredible for many hours for many of you.***

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N 81.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

[Psychoma]

First rain band of Irma now reaching the US mainland. This is mainly just a heavy rain, no heavy winds. If you're evacuating the keys or elsewhere YOU STILL HAVE TIME but that window will start to quickly close Saturday.

[pbmaise]

My model indicates pressure in South Florida has dipped to 1009. I gather as Irma approaches this will continue to drop and drop faster than the current pressure in Western Cuba. Hence the turn.

[loves2read]

Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90

It looks like Cuba is getting hammered.

So will Cuba more so than other smaller islands expend energy and drop her force to 4?
Will she gain momentum in the warmer water?

Slowing down will enable the turn but no way to tell how much--correct?
And no high pressure coming from the mainland anymore...

[dunno what to put here]

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/906369632675811328