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Interesting that the outer bands are hitting the tip of Fl as they swirl over Cuba
Each radar location has little different quality
One looks like Irma's eye is running right on the edge...another looks like it's just a little bit off
My Spanish is pretty feeble--are they using metrics vs knots forwindmeasurement?
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
...IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward on the east
coast of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west
coast of Florida to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west coast
of Florida to Anclote River.
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward on the west coast
of Florida to Suwanee River.
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to Fernandina Beach and on the west coast of Florida to
Indian Pass.
The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch for the
province of Matanzas to a Hurricane Warning. A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad
de la Habana. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for
Guantanamo have been discontinued.
Important: New surge map update assumes the center of NHC cone map (cone shows possible center point of storm in time only) which would bring storm in near Naples/Cape Coral area (again just middle of cone, not an exact prediction) but cone shows center could stay offshore in the Gulf or even go over Central FL still. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THE SURGE MAPS!!!! I cannont stress this enough------->If the storm rides up the west coast of FL (Worse case surge scenario for the West coast of Florida for surge aspect would be if the storm eye/center rode right up against / close parallel to the West coast of FL ) then the higher surge possible for Naples area would be extended up the coast even to Apalachee Bay area (varies by area, coastal shape, etc). Again not a forecast or my opinion, you just need to know the possibility is there still for this to change based on track and if it did indeed shift to along the coast further up then there wouldn't be much time to prepare/flee in the event of a higher surge. Hopefully we'll have even more clarity on track tomorrow.
Official irma Storm surge maps have now been updated with the Friday 11pmEST 8 September 2017 data/track changes ****BUT**** depends on exactly where that center goes still!
Highest surge comes with the eyewall (surrounds the clear eye) and points on the north / east side of the eye and slowly less height of surge as you get further away from the eye. It can travel up bays, rivers, and even city street storm drains in reverse. Any prolonged period of onshore winds can create some type of surge, even if minor, though as well.
Note: lake okeechobee surge potential isnt shown because its a levee system and these maps dont cover levees as far as Im aware.
This potential storm surge map Shows a possible scenario based on current track/stats that you plan to and hope for less (updates about 1-1.5hrs after the 5/11am/pm NHC storm stat updates).
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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My program now shows eye is moving onto Cuba and continues mostly West. South Florida has dropped in pressure down to 1006 hPa however so has Western Cuba.
I get hourly updates.
I still see no indication of a turn yet and doubt one will occur if it crosses Cuba.
Can we get a longer post of Irma making that turn
Hard to know what is happening and clip is too short for me to see a turn to north
Have to look at our newest weather satellite ( GOES16 ), takes an image every 60 seconds. Appears, at least at this time, its moving parallel to the Cuba coast at about a WNW or a little North of due west motion. I don't have a video made but you can see it here (warning- uses lot of data) (use the menu bar on the left to change "# of images shown in video loop, to see different types of views (water vapor, visible, etc) then change the "Product" (some cant be used til sun up).: RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER: Satellite Loop Interactive Data Explorer in Real-time with GOES-16 and Himawari-8 Satellite Imagery
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,800,352 times
Reputation: 1932
Someone asked about interactions between Irma and Jose.
Let's look.
Firstly Irma at 77 Degrees and Jose at 59 degrees are 18 degrees apart. Times 60 gives us Nautical Miles of 1080. Or miles of 1200 miles. Actually a bit farther because I ignored latitude difference. Jose is more South.
Under guidelines established by Meterological wonder of cyclones Mr. Fujiwhara, if the two interact, Irma will be slowed down and pushed South. Jose will speed up and move North.
"The effect becomes noticeable when they approach within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other."
We are over 1200 miles apart so no Fujiwhara effect.
However, don't go away yet.
Winds going past Jose continue on to Irma.
Think of it as if Jose ate the black bean dip. Jose is doing something to the winds that Irma is seeing.
Hint. Right now, because of Jose, it is raining about three inches an hour in a big area of the ocean. If you guessed Jose is producing wet air that feeds Irma you are almost correct.
Instead the important thing is Jose is producing warm air. And lots of it. It is this heat that helps feed Irma just as the heat in the warm Bermuda water feeds her.
Even more importantly, Jose is one of the reasons the pressure below Cuba is so low. Warm air rises, and this is partly the reason Irma is defying the model makers and continues moving West.
Oops another hour past time for me to check where the eye is.
How odd. The eye is now over the town of Playa Cunagua on Cuba's mainland.
Let's keep this discussion secret since I am patiently waiting for this incredible turn to the North.
Oh check pressures.
Sorry guys my model indicates directly between Irma and Florida a low pressure of 972.
Even though South Florida is still 1006 I am expecting Irma to end her visit above the mainland of Cuba and pay Florida a visit.
I am predicting when I next check the eye in 40 minutes that it will no longer be over Cuba and will have moved back over the sea.
Overnight Euro model run just came in, it goes with a slower moving storm over warm waters to feed off of and brings it north in between Ft. Myers and Tampa looks like.
Overnight Euro model run just came in, it goes with a slower moving storm over warm waters to feed off of and brings it north in between Ft. Myers and Tampa looks like.
That's ugly considering the strongest winds are north east of the eye while it moves north. I can't believe it hasn't lost power since making landfall in Cuba, this storm is no joke.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Reputation: 1932
I am troubled by the thought of a whole bunch of people on Florida's East coast now doing the happy dance and thinking they are in the pink.
Well that is my whole point. You are still in the pink of the wave model.
You may not be seeing the surge and giant wind. However, the wave model is predicting large waves in the 20 ft range all the way up the East Coast as far as West Palm Beach. Just high enough to drop a little sand into the pools of the billionaires and other high mucky mucks.
Again.
There is still a chance the worst of the winds will still go up that Eastern seaboard too.
No one let your guards down.
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