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The system near Honduras & the Yucatán has been designated as Invest "91L" for tracking/communication purposes. A reminder that invest numbers repeat 90 through 99 then back to 90 again, so when searching for storm info make sure to look for October dates from 2018 and not earlier in the year or other years or you'll be seeing different storms. The "L" just means Atlantic basin.
I hope we get a push to the east if the high can break down a little. Gulf is super heated for this time of year in my area in the east gulf. Would love a CAT1 with 10" of rain. Shear is bad to the south but is weaker in the gulf. So if we can get a front to dig down some i may get lucky. My guess is it will stay well to my west.
6Oct18 1pCDT/2pEDT: Atlantic:
-See Leslie thread.
-See Invest 97E in the East Pacific notes below that may cross over.
-Invest 91L located near NE Belize. NHC says high 90% chance of development and could see a Tropical Depression or named Tropical Storm form Sunday or Monday as the system slowly moves generally North. Undergoing a lot of shear currently. The center of circulation tends to jump around in these based on where the higher convection is located. But winds should subside as it passes the tip of Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico allowing for development.
Track guidance would suggest a landfall along the US Gulf coast around Wednesday this week (the small black numbers are hours from now, so 96hours = 4 days out):
Intensity guidance suggest steady strengthening into a Tropical Storm into landfall, with a slight chance of a Cat1 hurricane at this time:
Tropical Tidbits has just posted a video discussion on this system; haven't watched it yet but always a good listen and explains things clearly: https://youtu.be/wY5cENFzuZo
East Pacific:
-See Sergio thread.
-Invest 97E may end up spinning around into the Western Caribbean side and generally follow Invest 91L mentioned above. But currently a low chance of development, if it even tries to again anymore.
And this blob of scattered showers designated as Invest 97E does not look as healthy as it did earlier today
6Oct18 - At 4pCDT/5pEDT NHC will begin to issue advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 (formally Invest 91L). This newer-ish method is just a way to issue cone maps and any Watches/Warnings to get info out to officials and the public of an impending storm before it's officially named/developed (why wait if you know its coming).
6Oct18 4pCDT/5pEDT - Invest 91L has been designated as PTC14 (Potential Tropical Cyclone 14). Estimated winds 30mph(45km/h), moving NW 6mph(9km/h), pressure 1006mb.
System expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. May become a Tropical Depression or a named Tropical Storm Sunday or Sunday night. Steady strengthening is expected.
-Tropical Storm Warning (winds 39+mph expected within 36hours or less) for Pinar del Rio & Isle of Youth Cuba.
-Tropical Storm Watch (winds 39+mph possible within 48hours or less) for Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico.
-Rains of 3-7inches, isolated 12inches West Cuba
-Rains of 2-4inches portions of Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and N Honduras.
-Possible US Gulf coast effects mid week or so could include storm surge, heavy rains/flash flooding, tornadoes, etc but too soon to specify exact locations of impacts or not.
Cone map(remember this just shows where the center of storm could be in time).
7Oct18 7aCDT/8aEDT - PTC14 is now Tropical Depression 14 with winds of 35mph, NHC now has as a possible Cat1 Hurricane into the US Gulf coast later this week. Quick mover, strong winds may travel well inland. Heavy scattered rains into the SE US as well. Likely named soon.
7Oct18 7aCDT/8aEDT - PTC14 is now Tropical Depression 14 with winds of 35mph, NHC now has as a possible Cat1 Hurricane into the US Gulf coast later this week. Quick mover, strong winds may travel well inland. Heavy scattered rains into the SE US as well. Likely named soon. Attachment 203415
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More rain for NC...
