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But some other models have jumped onto a system trying to form either side of Central America next week, which ties into passing MJO mentioned earlier and times perfectly with start of East Pacific Hurricane season which begins May 15th. If a CAG (Central America Gyre...basically a blob of spinning scattered showers centered over Central America that can spit out a tropical system in on the Pacific or Caribbean/Gulf side) forms over Central America, then models jump around on possible storms being spit out, hard to pinpoint until it does, if it does. So we’ll watch. Nothing imminent yet but a higher chance of something trying to form next week near Central America / Southern Mexico. Wind shear remains high across the Gulf of Mexico which hurts tropical systems though FYI.
15May2019: Today is the official start of the East Pacific Hurricane season. (Atlantic & Central Pacific (Hawaii) season begins June 1). Still watching for possible development sometime next week, likely near Central America, but remains to be seen if anything will occur. A list of Central Pacific, E Pacific & Atlantic storm names can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
15May19 evening - Low 10-20% chance of development South of Mexico officially on the board per NHC. For official details, as always go to the source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
17May19 1pEDT:
Atlantic: New area well S/SW of Bermuda / North of Puerto Rico models have picked up on for quick Tropical or SubTropical development possible late this weekend - next week. Models also say it’ll move on out into the open Atlantic towards the N-NE but Bermuda may have to watch for rain chances. Looks like short lived system should it develop. We’ll see what becomes of it. NHC currently list it at low 0-30% chance of development.
E Pacific: Area S of Mexico still at 30% chance of development.
18May19:
Atlantic: 40% chance of development from cluster of disorganized showers between Bahamas & Bermuda. Will stay off US coast and possibly bring a few rain chances near Bermuda early to mid week then head out into Atlantic.
Pacific: 40% chance of development next 5 days from cluster of disorganized showers South of Mexico.
And here is updated “cone” size for 2019...you can see how its been getting smaller over the years.
20May19 8aEDT/AST:
Atlantic: Invest “90L” designated, NHC has 60% chance of development for this evening or Tuesday. Wednesday conditions become unfavorable & gets absorbed by cold front in Atlantic & off to Europe they go. May bring scattered showers into Bermuda. Should it develop, it looks to be a very breifly lived weaker system. (An “invest” number is just given to identify a scattered blob of showers that has the potential to develop into a tropical system. It’s still just some scattered showers. Invest numbers for the Atlantic go from 90 to 99, then repeat, so watch those dates when looking up info on any. The “L” letter designates what basin its located, in this case the Atlantic).
E Pacific: Invest “91E” (we already had 90E) NHC has at low 0-20% chance of development next 5 days but could keep seeing activity this region.
20May19 2pEDT/AST: Invest 90L now high 70% chance of development. Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance WC130 aircraft now enroute to investigate in person. Shape looks more that of a Sub-Tropical with its more comma shape like appearance. Has about 36hours to do something then conditions unfavorable and heads off into Atlantic.
21May2019 2pEDT/11aPDT:
Atlantic: See Andrea thread, nothing else on the radar for now.
E Pacific: Disorganized showers S of Guatemala area with a 50% chance of something developing next 5 days.
NHC will release their hurricane forecast for the season on Thursday. They’ll tweek it again in August.
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