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Old 09-16-2019, 07:32 AM
 
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Mon 16Sept 5pEDT/AST: Winds 85mph(140km/h), moving NE 5mph(7km/h), pressure 980mb. Cat1 hurricane as of 11p Sun update. Turning away from SE US as expected, may affect Bermuda starting sometime Wednesday, details TBD still. Mixed model guidance thereafter.
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Old 09-16-2019, 07:33 AM
 
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Old 09-16-2019, 12:13 PM
 
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Mon 16Sept 11aEDT/AST: Winds 85mph(140km/h), moving ENE 7mph(11km/h), pressure 978mb. Center about 710miles(1,145km) W of Bermuda. Eye clearing out on visible satellite. Cat 2/3 by Tuesday likely. Due to being time based issuance, Tropical Storm Watches go up for Bermuda later today.
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Old 09-16-2019, 06:28 PM
 
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Mon 16Sept 5pEDT/AST,6pADT-Bermuda: Winds 90mph(150km/h), moving ENE 7mph(11km/h), pressure 972mb. Center about 670miles(1,080km) W of Bermuda. As expected Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda in effect (TS winds of 39mph+ possible within 48hours). Models are finally coming back into more agreement on the out to sea solution, but many do show a Northward or even brief NW jog just after Bermuda at some point, as long as it's brief no worries. So current main threats in order are for Bermuda, Nova Scotia(if gets close enough) and Newfoundland (if close enough).

Current NHC wind speed probability chance maps:
-TS Winds 39-58mph: Bermuda 90+%, Nova Scotia & Newfoundland 5-10%
-TS Winds 58-73mph: Bermuda 60-70%
-Hurricane winds 74+mph: Bermuda 30%

Rip currents: For the US high rip current threat likely to last through the week due to waves from Humberto along most of the US East coast. Rip currents can be present even with just 2-3ft high waves, on sunny days (or any day), and move faster then Olympic swimmers. Sometimes you can't spot them, other times you can if you know what to look for (foam/discolored water streak going out from shore, difference in the wave breaks in some areas, also likely to be near any man-made structure in water (pier, rocks, etc), there can be multiple ones within sight of each other, etc. Sometimes the small calm spot seems like where you want your kids to play but that actually may be the rip current tampering down height of waves. To get out of one just swim parallel beside the beach as rip currents are usually not that wide, then swim back at an angle. The 32-42 second mark in this vid is the green dye example showing a rip current at a beach you may have seen online before: https://youtu.be/RJ4hcaJ91TY
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:12 AM
 
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Tue 17Sept 8aEDT/AST,9aADT-Bermuda: Winds 100mph(160km/h), moving ENE 8mph(13km/h), pressure 961mb. Center about 555miles(895km) W of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda (TS winds expected within 36hrs or less).
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:40 AM
 
Location: Southwestern, USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Tue 17Sept 8aEDT/AST,9aADT-Bermuda: Winds 100mph(160km/h), moving ENE 8mph(13km/h), pressure 961mb. Center about 555miles(895km) W of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda (TS winds expected within 36hrs or less).
Oh no...100 mph? Thanks Psychoma.


I looked up a lot on Bermuda...it's whole history...and ya know what?
I can never find if there were ANY inhabitants when Spanish ships came across it in the 1500s by
Bermudez...was it empty?
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miss Hepburn View Post
...was it empty?
Couldn't tell you that one!
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:13 PM
 
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Tue 17Sept 8pEDT/AST,9pADT-Bermuda:
Winds 115mph(185km/h), moving ENE 12mph(19km/h), pressure 951mb. Cat3. Center about 405miles(655km) WSW of Bermuda. Hurricane force winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center, Tropical Storm winds up to 175miles(280km). Within 3-4 days likely to transition to extra-tropical status with a large wind field. Humberto should just miss Bermuda to the NW/N but will be close enough to bring wind, rain, waves & some surge to the island Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.
Wind speed NHC probabilities for Bermuda:
TS winds 39-58mph: 90%
TS winds 58-73mph: 50%
Hurricane winds 74+mph: 20%
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Old 09-18-2019, 07:34 PM
 
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Wed 18Sept 8pEDT/AST,9pADT(Bermuda): Winds 120mph(195km/h), moving ENE 20mph(31m/h), pressure 952mb. Humberto unexpectedly increased it's wind field reach this afternoon with hurricane force winds extending up to 80miles(130km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force 195miles(315km). I think this is attributed to both an eyewall replacement cycle and transitioning a little earlier than originally thought to extra-tropical. And an extra-tropical characteristic is expanded wind field.

Because of this, Bermuda is experiencing Hurricane force winds this evening, lasting several more hours: Obs: *Note: some of these measurements are at higher elevations, so ground level would be less*
-Pearl Island 100mph(161km/h) sustained, gust 123mph(198km/h)
-Wade International Airport: gust 115mph(185km/h)
-Just North of airport: 132mph gust
NHC notes a lightning strike at the Bermuda weather service is causing some communication problems.
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Old 09-18-2019, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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In bermuda

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