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Old 10-18-2019, 01:09 PM
 
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Fri 18-Oct2019 2pEDT/AST,1pCDT: Invest 96L became PTC16, now Tropical Storm Nestor. Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NE 22mph(35km/h), pressure 1001mb. Located about 195miles(315km) S of mouth of MS River, about 355miles(570km) SW of Panama City, FL.

Tropical Storm Winds (39+mph) extend up to 175miles(280km) from center but almost completely NE & East side.
Quickly moving. Rain totals at 2-4in, isolated 6in FL to NC.
Storm surge possible of 3-5ft Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL; 2-4ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach, FL.; 1-3ft Tampa Bay, FL. Storm Surge watch/warning criteria is 3ft or higher.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible as rain bands come in starting this evening.

Tropical Storm Warning:
-MS/AL border to Yankeetown, FL
-Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of Pearl River

With Watch/Warnings posted official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 3 hours at 2,5,8 & 11a/pEDT/AST(1,4,7&10a/pCDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Old 10-18-2019, 01:12 PM
 
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For the US East coast note: NHC mentioned East coast to be covered by non-tropical weather Watch/Warnings so consult local NWS office for your area.
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Old 10-18-2019, 01:21 PM
 
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Old 10-18-2019, 04:47 PM
 
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Fri 18-Oct2019 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NE 22mph(35km/h), pressure 999mb. Located about 150miles(240km) SSE of mouth of MS River, about 280miles(450km) SW of Panama City, FL.

Lopsided storm. The center appears more exposed now with high wind shear continuing blowing storms off to the East side. There's basically nothing from the center of storm and Westward. East and North sides have all the action.

Although not always great with Tropical systems, the NAM does nicely depict the likely lopsided storm dumping rain North and East of where center travels this weekend:
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Old 10-19-2019, 02:18 AM
 
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Tornado Watch til noon Saturday (Watch = ingredients there, warning = occurring/imminent take shelter). Tornadoes in landfalling tropical systems are typically small and short lived, quick to appear and gone again.
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Old 10-19-2019, 02:24 AM
 
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Sat 19-Oct2019 2aEDT/AST,1aCDT: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving NE 20mph(32km/h), pressure 998mb. Located about 85miles(140km) SW of Apalachicola, FL, about 95miles(155km) SSW of Panama City, FL.

Traveling this weekend so won’t be posting much.
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Old 10-19-2019, 02:54 AM
 
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Old 10-19-2019, 04:39 AM
 
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Sat 5aEDT:
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Old 10-19-2019, 06:04 AM
 
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Old 10-19-2019, 07:03 AM
 
Location: Florida
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Morning. Lots of rain for us in the last 18 hours or so. I think about 4" so far. At about 1:30 a.m. I heard a great amount of wind so we hopped out of bed and went to our sheltered room but it was gone, without anything significant, in about 5 minutes. But there have been a few tornados in the area.
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