The month of prediction (Miami, Weston: insurance, services, business)

[tallrick]

Well May is here and it's time to see what our hurricane season will be like. If I don't get any rain, I will predict a hit on southeast Florida. If the rainy season starts I would say below average season. Very rainy month or cold front and I say no chance of a hurricane. While not a meteorologist, this method has proved correct for me since the 80's. So far I believe that this year we have below-average hurricane risk. In a few weeks the full picture should be evident. Another indicator of the dry season was how much of the sawgrass flowers, but the May rain situation seems to be very accurate. Anyone else making their personal predictions?

[chisoxfan]

I'm also a believer in the wet May/reduced South Florida hurricane risk theory. One of the South Florida newspapers ran a story on this a few years ago, and the evidence was very convincing. There seems to be a connection with the Bermuda high pressure system -- the more rain we get in May, the weaker the Bermuda high is during hurricane season, which means a greater likelihood of storms recurving into the open Atlantic.

My prediction on the Central Florida Hurricane Center Web site (a great resource if you're interested in tropical weather) was 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3 or above) hurricanes. I figure most of us amateurs can't do any worse than Dr. Gray and his buddies out in Colorado.

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by chisoxfan

I'm also a believer in the wet May/reduced South Florida hurricane risk theory. One of the South Florida newspapers ran a story on this a few years ago, and the evidence was very convincing. There seems to be a connection with the Bermuda high pressure system -- the more rain we get in May, the weaker the Bermuda high is during hurricane season, which means a greater likelihood of storms recurving into the open Atlantic.

My prediction on the Central Florida Hurricane Center Web site (a great resource if you're interested in tropical weather) was 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3 or above) hurricanes. I figure most of us amateurs can't do any worse than Dr. Gray and his buddies out in Colorado.

TRUE, almost impossible to predict how this hurricane season will be. But just in case, we posted a number of checklists that can help everyone also check you county emergency services...

No hurricanes for 2008

[tallrick]

The important thing is where they will go. While we could have an active hurricane season, if the Bermuda high is weak, they will be going right past us. I was in doubt the first year I predicted a hurricane hit, in 1992 because the season was so quiet. Andrew convinced me that the old-timer who remembered 1926 and 1935 and other storms was right. Every year is a new adventure!

[pacificnwseal]

It seems like it hasn't rained at all in like forever--I think it rained her in Miami like 3 weeks ago, if that...so therefore, that would mean a higher risk according to the theory stated above?

[tallrick]

Yes it counts. However my parents told me it rained today. Realistically it's the thunderstorms you have to look for. There were a couple strong storms earlier this year, as there were in 2003. We have three more weeks for the storms to start.

[SouthAfrica75]

As they say..... A dry May / You will pay (with a hurricane that is) we will have to wait and see..... so far bone dry here in Ft. Lauderdale.

My predictions were correct for last year. I said over and over again.... no tropical storms of hurricanes... infact went as far to say we would never be put under a watch or warning. So far I am not going with those comments.

[compelled to reply]

It poured today in Weston.

[flborn]

Can I ask about the differences in southwest and southeast florida? It seems like they have such different weather patterns and very little crosses the state from one side to the other. If Miami has a wet may, do we usually have one too or does it not matter? Does one south coast predict hurricanes better than the other? We haven't had a drop where we are in swfl but I'm wondering if Miami is the better predictor?

[casualobserver]

Another expert's prediction.........

HOUSTON (Reuters)—The 2008 Caribbean hurricane season will be near average in the number of storms, but there is a higher risk of a destructive storm hitting the East Coast, AccuWeather.com predicted on Monday.
Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief long-range and hurricane forecaster, said in an updated forecast he expects a total of 12 named storms in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
In April, he said the 2008 season would be slightly above average, seeing 12 to 13 named storms, with up to four becoming hurricanes and with the center of the target area being the U.S. Southeast coastline. In his latest forecast, Mr. Bastardi said a high percentage of tropical storms would make landfall and that the major threat area is further north than normal.
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A weakening La Niña weather anomaly and near-normal or below-normal water temperature in most of the tropical breeding grounds of the Caribbean and south Atlantic "will reduce the overall number of storms," Mr. Bastardi said in a release.
"However, with warm waters near the north Atlantic coastline, storms may form closer to the coast, resulting in a higher-than-average storm threat on the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England," he added.
Mr. Bastardi said he believes at least 40% of the named storms will be of tropical or hurricane strength on the U.S. coastline. That is about 1.6 times the norm.
Two or three storms will bring at least tropical storm-force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane-force winds, and one major hurricane, Mr. Bastardi said in his latest forecast.
For the Gulf of Mexico, he forecast two or three storms would affect the energy infrastructure in and around the Gulf and bring at least tropical storm-force winds to the Gulf Coast, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds.
Average hurricane seasons have 10 named storms. Copyright 2008 Reuters Limited. Click for restrictions.