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Sun 12Sept 11aEDT/AST - 94L became PTC14 then almost immediately changed to TS Nicholas. Winds 40mph (65km/h), moving NNW 13mph (20km/h), pressure 1008mb. TS winds extend up to 105miles(165km) from center. For days the signal for heavy rain across E TX and portions of LA has been known and shared by NWS for this. Now we get a developing Tropical system added to the mix which has also been a potential for several days.
Rainfall, 5-10in, isolated 15in coastal regions of TX and SW LA.
Surge: 2-4ft
TS Warning Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to Port Aransas, TX (Corpus Christi).
TS Watch Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX (between Galveston and LA/TX border).
Storm Surge Watch US/Mexico border to High Island, TX.
Updates are released by NHC every 3 hours at 1, 4, 7 & 10a/pCDT (2, 5, 8 and 11am/pm EDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Watch Warning Changes:
TS Warning extended N to Freeport, TX.
Surge Watch changes to Warning (time based) for Port Aransas (Corpus Christi, TX) North to San Luis Pass, TX (S side of Galveston Island).
Hurricane Watch from Port Aransas to Sargent, TX (Just S of Freeport)
Forecast changes:
-Rain 8-16in, isolated 20in middle/upper TX coastal region
-Rain 5-10in rest of TX coast into SW LA.
-NHC has as 65mph into TX, but the further East side of guidance storm moves then higher intensity possible. NHC is going with a blend of model possibilities at the moment. Hurricane is possible.
Surge values updated:
Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft
Sun 10pCDT/11pEDT - almost sitting still, unorganized. watches/Warnings extended East some due to likelihood the center reforms more to its N/NE. Currently calm winds and no real storms/rain near center. Unorganized storms will often reform new centers closer to storms. Thus slight shift East.
Mon 13Sept 7aCDT,8aEDT Winds 60mph (95km/h), moving NNW 5mph (7km/h), pressure 1001mb. Motion/movement is more jumping around with overall NNW drift.
Towards sunrise almost developed a small eye just offshore of Brownsville, TX, but wind shear coming from the SW blowing across it has would not allow it to close off off an eye and has since weakened. A more pronounced spin is now evident on radar further NE of this, we’ll offshore between Brownsville & Corpus Christi, likely the mid level center. And wouldn’t be surprised to see low level center relocate once more towards this region or just move/pull up closer. So disorganized but packing a little punch if in the right spot, slowly pulling together more.
Mon 13Sept 7pCDT,8pEDT Winds 70mph (110km/h), moving NNE 12mph (19km/h), pressure 988mb. Just off Port O'Connor, TX where winds 50+mph, gust 60 to near 70mph being reported. Basically on the Western "eye wall" if it had an eye. The onshore winds pushing water up the W/SW side of Matagorda Bay there as well.
Wouldn't take much more to bump to Cat1 Hurricane status, then Hurricane Watch would immediately change to Warning.
Obs:
Wind: https://www.windalert.com/search/28.465/-96.601/9
Matagorda Bay Entrance: 59mph sustained(s), 75mph Gust(G)
Port O'Connor, TX: 55-60 s, 70 G
Matagorda, TX: 40-50 s, 60+ G
Port Lavaca, TX: 30-35s, 40+ G
Seadrift, TX: 23 s, 32 G (earlier was 25-30 s, 40+ G)
Mustang Beach, TX: 20 s, 33 G (earlier was 30+ s, 40 G)
Surge: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/in.../Nicholas.html
(order: West to East)
TX:
Corpus Christi: +1.3ft
Padre Island area: +1ft
Port Aransas: +1.4ft
Rockport: +1.1ft
Mustang Lake / W San Antonio Bay / Aransas Wildlife Refuge: +2.6ft, Minor Flood stage
Seadrift (NE San Antonio Bay): -.1ft (negative surge - winds blowing water to other side)
Port O'Connor: +3.75ft - Moderate Flood Stage
Port Lavaca: +3ft - Minor Flood Stage
Matagorda City: +2.7ft
Sargent: +2.3ft
Freeport: +2.2ft
San Luis Pass: +2.2ft
Galveston: +1.8ft
Eagle Point Galveston Bay: +1.7ft
TX/LA border (Sabine Pass): +1.3ft
Chiming in from League City in Galveston County. Doing well. This was primarily a wind event for us with much less rain than expected. Gusts around 60 mph. Kept me up for a few hours overnight. Predictions had been the opposite- it was supposed to be more of a rain event.
No damage, no street flooding that I can see around me at all. Water level in the Lake is pretty high, but not terrible.
I think on the Island, water came up just about to the buildings on The Strand, but didn't get in, at least not in any significant amount.
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