'Very active' hurricane season predicted (professional, winter, tornado, rain)

[kar]

FORT COLLINS, Colorado (AP) -- The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with 17 named storms, a top storm forecaster said Tuesday.

Those named storms are expected to include five intense or major hurricanes, according to forecaster William Gray's team at Colorado State University. Gray said there is a 74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast.

[cut - too much of the article reposted]
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/04/03/hurricane.forecast.ap/index.html (broken link)


We are so glad we moved out Florida two years ago. No more hurricanes for us

[Sunshine State]

they predicted the same thing last year, nothing happened, we hardly even got rain...in fact, it was so hot and dry we got more fires than anything else...they shud discontinue naming storms after human beings as well, then maybe we cud take them serious, lol.....

[JimKing]

They predicted the same thing last year. Most parts of Florida went decades without a hurricane before the two active seasons two years ago. Palm Beach County up through Jacksonville went 30-40 years without a hurricane.

Most hurricanes during that stretch headed right up to the outer banks of NC.

By the way if you are in Tenn., that state ranks first in tornados with injuries. At least with a hurricane you have a weeks warning to prepare or leave.

[daniellefort]

Yes isn't it funny. last year they said the same thing how bad it was going to be and then half way through the season they UPDATED the predictions and lowered the number of storms. Just another word to say they misjudged themselves. It's not hard to update something that hasn't even happened yet especially when your already half way through the season.

[chisoxfan]

Many experienced, highly trained professional tropical weather forecasters predicted the same type of active season last year and got it wrong. The same forecasters badly underestimated what happened in 2005. It's hard for the forecasters to predict where a storm's going to go and how intense it will be even two or three days out, so I see the preseason predictions basically as fuel for media hype and little else.

Steering currents are likely to determine the impact on Florida this year. If the high pressure system that customarily sets up over Bermuda during the peak of hurricane season is weak or drifts east, storms will tend to recurve out to sea. If the Bermuda high is strong and extends farther west, as was the case in 2004-05, Florida and the Gulf Coast are at high risk. A middle-of-the road scenario would tend to steer storms toward the Carolinas.

It's not unusual for an active season to have little or no impact on the Florida and U.S. coasts. Also keep in mind that 1992 was a less active season, but that was the year Andrew hit. So it's best to be prepared for whatever happens.

[FL_TN_Nana]

If it continues to be as dry as it is now, we'll all be praying for a tropical storm soon. Our lakes are dropping already and fire danger is very high.

Hope Dr. Gray is wrong again and that we have a mild tropical season.

[pslOldTimer]

Originally Posted by kar

...We are so glad we moved out Florida two years ago. No more hurricanes for us

Don't be so sure. Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston, SC, then mobved NW to Columbia. From there, it moved north and devasted Charlotte, NC. Then is swerved NW again and passed over Hickory, Lenoir and West Jefferson, NC -- which is only 20 miles or so from the Tennessee border. It then went on over the Virginia panhandle and hit Bluefield, WV, where it was finally downgraded.

I know; I was sitting in our cabin near West Jefferson, on top of a mountain at about 3700 feet, when Hugo passed, knocking down trees, knocking out the power, and blowing at least one cabin into the North Fork of the New River. My kids were in school at Lenoir-Rhyne College in Hickory, NC, and their dorms received severe damage. We drove to Hickory a couple of days later, and thousands of trees were knocked over. Houses lost roofs and trailers were blown over.

A slight deviation in high pressure areas and that monster would have continued NW out of Columbia and into middle Tennessee.

[harry chickpea]

I have zero confidence in Gray. IMO, he is a publicity hound with an agenda, and not a thoughtful scientist. I listened to him in conversation with some other scientists a couple years back and lost all respect for him.

[Nirvana-Guy]

Originally Posted by Sunshine State

they predicted the same thing last year, nothing happened, we hardly even got rain...in fact, it was so hot and dry we got more fires than anything else...they shud discontinue naming storms after human beings as well, then maybe we cud take them serious, lol.....

Because of how hot this winter has been in the East Coast and the fact that 2007 will be the hottest year on record, Atlantic waters are going to boil and hurricanes will have more fuel than even Al Gore's daily caravan of gas guzzling SUVs.

Dude, there are some real substance to the warnings this year: the weather!

Unlike 2006, which predictions were solely based on the nighmare we lived in 2004 - 2005, the 2007 season predictions are based on how hot the Atlantic waters are (the fuel for hurricanes).

I think the messags is: beaware, be prepared!

[BlueWillowPlate]

Originally Posted by kar

No more hurricanes for us

But, judging from 2006, perhaps severe thunderstorms and tornadoes
Like I said in the last hurricane thread, I plan on being prepared for the worst but will hope for the best. I heard the Gulf here is 8 degrees warmer than this time last year. We shall see.
BTW
I thought William Gray was quitting?