Hurricane Carlos (warm, record, days, storms)

[mattyj46]

I usually don't comment on these storms out so far in the Pacific but I will on this one just on the general path it would take it close to Hawaii.







THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE
PATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
SHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

National Hurricane Center

[mattyj46]

ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1045 MILES...1685 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND CARLOS COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 119.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory

[mattyj46]

Obviously no threat to land within the next 5 days or so but its just interesting to have something out there to keep track of!

[mattyj46]

Even the NHC doesn't seem to know why it has weakened so much

IT STILL IS A BIT OF MYSTERY WHY THE CYCLONE WEAKENED AS MUCH AS IT
HAS TODAY. THE GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON A
SUBSTANTIAL RE-INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES ONLY BRING CARLOS BACK UP A FEW KNOTS. THERE
DOES EXIST A TWO TO THREE DAY WINDOW FOR CARLOS TO RESTRENGTHEN AS
IT TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND MORE VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON.

Now down into a tropical storm.

[si33]

Whats up Mattyj..

Yes, its nice to have something to track..and im thinking that the de-intensification seen earlier, will be a short-lived event..

Also keeping an eye on the next area trying to organize to the east of Carlos..Id seen that the NHC upped the potential of it developing into something..We'll see though..

As for what was left of Blanca, most of the moisture moved out by mid day..after a brief opportunity for storms which was seen as a possibility when i checked our local Fcst discussion this morning..(our area was in the bulls-eye of strongest potential for isolated storms at that time)

We're supposed to go into a warmer pattern the next few days with more moisture returning to the area (possibly from Carlos??..) sometime late next week..keep it comming..

[JerichoHW]

I have seem some weak eye features forming and dissipating all day, NHC seems pretty uncertian but in the end of the day I doubt Hawaii will be impacted that much. Although Surfing conditions might pick up!!

[si33]

Well, looks like Carlos has reached a Cat 2 status and may wave at Hawaii as a tropical storm, at least according to the latest plot from the NHC..and the other area id spoken of just east of Carlos, is now classified as a tropical depression..guess for now, this is where all the action is at..not that the residents of Florida or the Gulf coast mind.. Though it is wayy too early to let the guard down of course, Wouldn't that be quite strange if no storms develop over the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico basin..at all this year??..Id certainly be amazed..

[mattyj46]

Originally Posted by si33

Well, looks like Carlos has reached a Cat 2 status and may wave at Hawaii as a tropical storm, at least according to the latest plot from the NHC..and the other area id spoken of just east of Carlos, is now classified as a tropical depression..guess for now, this is where all the action is at..not that the residents of Florida or the Gulf coast mind.. Though it is wayy too early to let the guard down of course, Wouldn't that be quite strange if no storms develop over the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico basin..at all this year??..Id certainly be amazed..

Carlos is also near the record on being one of the smallest hurricanes ever, have you seen it on sat? Its ridiculoulsy small, hurricane force winds extend only 10miles out from the centre.





I'd be surprised if this has much of an impact on Hawaii now, models don't really know where it is going to head at the moment and the size of it means wave action probaly won't be out of the ordinary.

I've got no dobut that there will be storms in the Altantic, even hurricanes, no dobut what so ever. Can't wait til they develop though (of course hoping none do major damage).