How are the home prices holding in the RE slump? (Boise: bank owned, how much)

[vintage]

There is a real estate broker in Boise that talks about the current slump in an informational blog. His name is Phil Hoover.
Here is a sample.

“Yeah, I know ~ some of you think I'm being "negative", don't you?
If so, please explain to me how we are going to work off a 25,000+ lot inventory when home sales are down 40-50% from a year ago.”

And regarding the trillions of $$$ of ARM loans that will reset in 2007 and how short-term rates have climbed from 1% to 5.25% since 2004 he says this………

“Some borrowers will see their payments increase by 50%; others could see their payments double
I wonder what those payment increases will do to the foreclosure rate.
Does anyone else remember the S&L crisis of the early 80's?
Oh, I forgot ~ this time's different”

http://www.boiseblog.com/display/ShowJournal?moduleId=796023&currentPage=2 (broken link)

[SWCMale]

Not in Meridian! No slump here, unless it takes a couple weeks longer to sell a home? that isn't a slump!

[Sawtooth]

I don't think there is a slump near downtown or the North End either. Downtown is really "building up" with condo buildings/towers and there are several planned and near construction because downtown living has become so popular and the neighborhoods around downtown are some of the most attractive areas to live in Boise. Some of these projects are taking longer to get built than planned, but several are moving along well according to business news I have been following in Boise.
In my area of Boise appreciation is happening. I guess it depends ultimately on the part of town like mentioned before, and the kind of house you are trying to sell. If it is a cookie cutter in the burbs surrounded by other cookie cutters that are up for sale, it might not be as easy to sell as a grand old home in the historic neighborhoods around downtown. I have read that home sales in the far west of the Metro near Nampa/Caldwell are selling faster than other areas of the Metro. People are moving to Boise and Idaho and will continue to do so, so if there is a slump it is natural and maybe needed to keep home prices down so families can buy a nice home. It isn't the end of the world like crotchety people seem to think in this forum.
And the slump here is not nearly as bad as other areas of the country either.
And a certain persons opinion on the market stems from the people and agents/friends that they get their info and they associate with. I don't hear doom and gloom like some on this forum, but I hear a lot of optomism from friends who have sold homes in the Boise area (they had quick sales and were very recent thank you) .

[buckleyclan]

Micrguy, thanks for the good info about days-on-market.

I hadn't thought about that.

[vintage]

Many sellers in this valley are in a cold sweat. Some are resorting to voodo superstitious rituals in hope of selling their home. I was in the barbershop a few months ago, when someone whom I assume sane, was considering resorting to using an idol to convince God to send some poor soul over to buy his overpriced home. ( I mean no offense to anyone who practices voodo as a religion.)

Seems like this practice is finding a following through-out Boise. Jennifer Gelband of Boise wrote an article in the newwest.net site titled; Real Estate Slump Prompts Sellers to Try Anything- Even Voodo, it’s funny and sad. Here is a small excerpt. The rest can be found at http://tinyurl.com/yyu5tm (broken link)

My friend Stephanie, who shall remain last nameless, stopped by my home last night to vent about the trials of selling her condo. She was in my hood because there is a Christian bookshop down the street where for $6.95 she bought her own plastic St. Joseph figurine to plant in her yard.

I looked at the box in disbelief – two-fold disbelief, in fact, because 1. I can’t believe this skeptic of a friend would fall for this ruse and 2……..

It’s the last two paragraphs in the article that reveal the core of the problem.

[Pineboy]

People do resort to such tactics to sell when they are desperate. I can guarantee you if people are doing it here in Idaho that even more people are doing the same thing around the country. Even in this national real estate slump, Idaho still has one of the stronger markets.

[vintage]

“How is Boise holding up in the real estate slump?”
Here is the data derived from MLS information and displayed at housingtracker.net.
Here is the specific link to the Boise page. http://www.housingtracker.net/asking...iseCity-Nampa/

Bottom line: The asking price of the median priced home has fallen each and every month over the past six months. While the total housing inventory has increased a total of 53.5%
The law of supply and demand in effect?

Trend of median price home as of 12/04/2006 asking price $261,500 month
1 month-0.9% 2 month-1.3% 3 month-.3% 6 month2.5%
Inventory numbers have increased dramaticly until the recent cold weather/post school vacation slow down.

Inventory 6,686 This by the way, does not include homes for sale by owners or the subdivisions where a broker has exclusive listings.
1 month-5.4% 2 month-3.6% 3 month +3.8% +53.5%
for 6 months

[vintage]

To get a good idea as to the condition of the real estate market in the valley, we need to see sourced data. So far, I’m the only poster on this thread to produce any objective numbers showing the current market trend.

The numbers I think would be very helpful for people to see would be the following.

*The median selling price of homes over the past year.

*The average length of time homes have been listed before selling

*Number of times on average homes have been relisted before sale

*Number and % of homes whose listing expired without resulting in a sale

*% of difference between selling price of the median home in Dec. 2006 and June 2006

*The comparison of median selling price in 2005 to 2006

Perhaps other readers can think of more data that would be helpful in determining the housing trend in this area.

We have a number of people in the real estate industry who post on the board. I have been pleased to see them use some of their slow time to serve as tour guides and unofficial marketers. Such is a commendable community service.

Now, if we could please see some specific data (sourced data) from these professionals.
One such person even boasted on this thread of having access to “alot of real estate facts and numbers”, so lets see the facts and numbers you base your opinions on.
And while you pros are at it please answer the above data points.

[California Carl]

I think you are right Vintage. I wish you weren't. The market out here in the bay area is about the same.
Unless everyone gets a 10$ an hour raise, how will they afford these homes? Also, if everyone gets a big raise would'nt that make you're home less valuable if the price stayed the same? Inflation with no market growth in the real estate sector?
We will see. My home has been on the market here for 5 weeks and I've only had 4 lookers. I've priced it below last years peak and lowered it since then.
I still hope I can sell it and move up there. I'll by one of you're "Vodoo Houses" LOL...... We'll see.

[vintage]

California Carl, Good luck with selling your house. Is the market in the Bay area seasonal as it is in Boise? If you’re getting about one serious looker in the house per week during “off” season then I would think that is a sign that you may be pricing and presenting the place fairly well.
You brought up the wage vs. home price issue. Wages here have always been terribly low but the low home prices helped to offset the effect of low income. Not anymore.

So how does the real estate industrial complex continue churning out sales to local people? By lowering lending requirements and pushing toxic loans of ARM, 0% down and interest only concoctions.
This, in a city where a $15 an hour job with benefits is considered a good job by most people. Unemployment is low, with tons of jobs out there for under $9.00 an hour. Nurses are in demand and pay is above average about $18-$22. Most tech industry positions are in production and pay is in the $11- $16 an hour range. Got a masters degree in social science? You can start with the State at $14 an hour.

It’s been the influx of cash heavy newcomers that has saved our housing bacon thus far. Some would say that it is what has cooked our bacon. All seem to agree they like the smell of frying bacon. Now, it looks like it may be oatmeal for breakfast for a while.