Relocating from California to Idaho (middle-class, extended stay, apartments)

[ThaEnd]

7 years Treasure Valley now. Does it have issues? Sure it does but ill take them, growth issues like no mozzarella cheese or guacamole at Winco this AM. I love it here. The 4 seasons are majestic as the morning sky. The Most High God created a beautiful state with water. Thank you Jesus Christ....for bringing me here.

[neenee99]

We moved from South FL to Boise. We love it - people are very nice. It has a small town feel to me. Meridian seems more busy than anywhere else in the Treasure Valley. In Boise you have tbe foothills and tbe airport very close.

[banjomike]

It's very interesting to me that all the outward migration from California was first believed the migration would cause housing prices in Cali to go down substantially.

The prices didn't.

Housing everywhere else throughout the west went up instead. The prices didn't just rise; they shot through the roof like a bucketful of bottle rockets that all were lit at once!

Why?

To me, that's a question that deserves more attention and understanding than it's been given.

[nowhereman427]

Originally Posted by banjomike

It's very interesting to me that all the outward migration from California was first believed the migration would cause housing prices in Cali to go down substantially.

The prices didn't.

Housing everywhere else throughout the west went up instead. The prices didn't just rise; they shot through the roof like a bucketful of bottle rockets that all were lit at once!

Why?

To me, that's a question that deserves more attention and understanding than it's been given.

Still unaffordable even though the prices went down because the prices were unreasonably high to begin with.

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by nowhereman427

Still unaffordable even though the prices went down because the prices were unreasonably high to begin with.

So why didn't the unafforability decline after so many folks moved away?

The housing prices were supposed to lower when more houses became available on the market, but that didn't happen. Why? The California housing market was supposed to change from a seller's market to a buyer's market, but it did not.

[RMESMH]

Originally Posted by ProudAmer3

I would love to hear your thoughts on why TN was a big mistake for you. What part of TN did you move to? I have narrowed down my search to ID and TN, for now at least. Keeps changing lol.

Beat me to it.

[RMESMH]

Originally Posted by Racer46

I have family that moved from Southern CA to TN. The biggest difference is the humidity in Summer. Other than that they love it. Lower cost of living, less expensive housing, very friendly people, traffic is a minor issue compared to CA's big cities, great outdoor things to do and a 1 day drive to East Coast beaches or the Gulf, and warm water. Plenty of restaurants and things to do, though CA does have more. CA is a special place, but for many either they cannot afford it or they are tired of traffic and the cost of living there even if they can afford it. Each persons choice.

Now some parts of TN are not as desirable. I would pick from Nashville to Knoxville

I agree, but I would also add parts of the Chattanooga metro (Signal Mountain, Lookout Mountain, Alpine Heights, parts of Brainerd, etc.)

but not the West end of the State. Depend if you want rural or suburbs or city living, though they are all close enough that what you need is close.

I also have family living in TF and it is also a very nice place, though I lean towards the Boise area.

I agree.

[Veritas Vincit]

Originally Posted by banjomike

So why didn't the unafforability decline after so many folks moved away?

The housing prices were supposed to lower when more houses became available on the market, but that didn't happen. Why? The California housing market was supposed to change from a seller's market to a buyer's market, but it did not.

Did anyone actually predict that? (And I mean in like an informed way?)



The way I see it, CA's overall population isn't really declining at a significant enough level to make a big difference in pricing. For all the people who leave there's immigrants coming in and kids growing up who need housing. But even if there's a minor decline, the effect wouldn't be felt equally across the spectrum of housing.


If the least desirable housing in CA goes down 5% in price, would people really notice? The people who leave those houses behind want to move up to better housing, and so forth. It's a domino effect.



The only way housing prices will go down significantly in CA is if there'a major recession which leads to a lot of people defaulting and thus causing a large quantity of houses all over to hit the market around the same time period. But who knows if that happens any time soon, and of course to take advantage of it, you'll have to be among the fortunate ones not to be affected by the collapse.

[AnythingOutdoors]

Originally Posted by banjomike

It's very interesting to me that all the outward migration from California was first believed the migration would cause housing prices in Cali to go down substantially.

The prices didn't.

Housing everywhere else throughout the west went up instead. The prices didn't just rise; they shot through the roof like a bucketful of bottle rockets that all were lit at once!

Why?

To me, that's a question that deserves more attention and understanding than it's been given.

California has under-built housing over the past 30 years to the tune of around 3.5M units. That's a massive number, at least several times larger than the entire number of housing units in all of Idaho (multiple people typically occupy a single housing unit).

CA has experienced a net out-migration in recent years, yet this has largely been offset by net positive international migration (see the third graph here from the PPIC). So although California's population has decreased in the past several years, which is notable because this is the first this has happened in state history, the overall decline is very slight compared to total population and the size of the housing shortage.

This outward CA migration is, however, significant compared to the population and housing markets in other states. Hence, while there's little decrease in CA real estate values, other areas (e.g. ID, TN, MT, etc.) have had a large run-up in prices. CA has effectively exported its manufactured housing crisis to other areas of the US.

Hopefully the affected states learn from California's mistakes. Refusing to build housing doesn't stop people from moving in (a classic case of confusing cause and effect), nor does it stop change. All it does is create a self-reinforcing cycle of ever increasing costs of living, rampant homelessness (a complex and nuanced problem with many underlying causes, but high cost of housing is a major factor), and the highest poverty rate in the nation.

[movedintime]

Originally Posted by AnythingOutdoors

California has under-built housing over the past 30 years to the tune of around 3.5M units. That's a massive number, at least several times larger than the entire number of housing units in all of Idaho (multiple people typically occupy a single housing unit).

CA has experienced a net out-migration in recent years, yet this has largely been offset by net positive international migration (see the third graph here from the PPIC). So although California's population has decreased in the past several years, which is notable because this is the first this has happened in state history, the overall decline is very slight compared to total population and the size of the housing shortage.

This outward CA migration is, however, significant compared to the population and housing markets in other states. Hence, while there's little decrease in CA real estate values, other areas (e.g. ID, TN, MT, etc.) have had a large run-up in prices. CA has effectively exported its manufactured housing crisis to other areas of the US.

Hopefully the affected states learn from California's mistakes. Refusing to build housing doesn't stop people from moving in (a classic case of confusing cause and effect), nor does it stop change. All it does is create a self-reinforcing cycle of ever increasing costs of living, rampant homelessness (a complex and nuanced problem with many underlying causes, but high cost of housing is a major factor), and the highest poverty rate in the nation.

Can only hope the lessen gets learnt and states do what's needed to get contractors building houses as fast as they can. Every state is behind the curve and next in line for increased homelessness.

Yeah, your home might not increase as fast, but the homeless population won't either.