Swine Flu in Idaho (Pocatello, Idaho Falls: high school, university, military)

[Mtn. States Resident]

Were you alive in 1957? If so, potential prior exposure to flu strain, H2N2, may be giving you immunity to H1N1 now:

Over 52? You may be protected from swine flu - Swine flu- msnbc.com

MSR

[pw72]

That is really interesting MSR. Unfortunately, I missed that date by a few years. And I apologize if I came off as flippant in previous posts regarding this topic. Hopefully, it will not come back in the Fall to cause more serious problems. And again, hopefully, there will be a vaccine by then.

[Mtn. States Resident]

Originally Posted by pw72

That is really interesting MSR. Unfortunately, I missed that date by a few years. And I apologize if I came off as flippant in previous posts regarding this topic. Hopefully, it will not come back in the Fall to cause more serious problems. And again, hopefully, there will be a vaccine by then.

pw72,

Not a problem about earlier. Just keep reading and keep yourself and those you care about as healthy as possible.

I'm with you, the theory, if correct, doesn't cover me either. However, it may help explain why we're seeing the sickest patients in the "wrong" age groups for flu deaths like we see in the usual flu season.

I, too, share your hope for a vaccine by fall, but know the realities right now is at least 4 of the U.S. deaths (if not more) are all stating the patients had other underlying medical problems. The families are ALL DENYING that information.

Potentially, one of the explanations could be early symptoms of H1N1 that healthcare providers failed to link together at the time. I don't know the truth, but is unusual for a family to request an autopsy to clear the 21 year old man. It's also unusual for the mother to clarify which were HER symptoms, not her son's.

As per the 21 year old in UT, don't believe the AP press release. Dr. Sundwall minimized as much as he could - he stopped his general practice years ago. Interestingly, several hours later on a KSL interview not posted verbatim, Dr. Sundwall was far more concerned.

First, the family interview naming the two hospitals where this patient was treated, then Dr. Sundwall's interview:

ksl.com - Family of swine flu victim angry hospital turned him away,

ksl.com - Utah has 1st swine flu-related death

Additional reliable info is available at: Young Utahn dies after testing positive for H1N1 flu - Salt Lake Tribune or at KSL.

We have to get through this wave of this off-season flu first and no pharmaceutical company can yet. The more lethal this virus is worldwide, unfortunately, any vaccines developed currently may not be effective in the fall. It's a hard truth to hear. We're seeing such rapid spread right now of
H1N1 and it's not really the U.S. where we're worried this may convert into a more lethal strain. It's how the virus combines pieces of swine/bird and human DNA right now that is so worrisome.

With China reporting cases, while still having H5N1 (Bird flu) active, plus Japan closing over 200 schools due to H1N1, our concern lies in Asia.

I've tried to alert those in Idaho to be aware and take precautions. If people chose not to, there is nothing I can do. However, as I'd told NCM and a couple of other people, at least I won't feel guilty. I shared information as soon as I got an email from one regional healthcare chain asking for offices to upgrade to Level 5 Precautions.

Tonight, I'm glad I have enough N95 masks.

Stay well, but if anyone has a fever or a cough, PLEASE stay home and contact your doctor. Better to have it be a minor nothing than to be another statistic.

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

This was sent to me by a friend.

Perhaps it will help teach younger children/kids about hand washing.

I hope it helps.

"Swine Flu - teach children how not to spread germs"

YouTube - Swine Flu - teach children how not to spread germs

Stay well,

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

This is an interesting read. While the article is a day old and the death count in the U.S. is wrong (we're not at double digits with the 13 year old in AZ and the 21 year old in UT), the question of resitance to Tamiflu is raised.

Also, this is one of the best, simple explanations I've read of how viruses replicate and potentially take pieces of previous hosts as they mutate.

"Could H1N1 start to resist drugs?"

Could swine flu virus start to resist drugs? - Swine flu- msnbc.com

Additionally, the CDC says the confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg. They are estimating 100,000 cases in the U.S. as of last week.

What do you think?

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

If you are tracking cases of H1N1 in Idaho, this is interesting how ID went from 8 confirmed cases to 18 in one day.

The average person seems to be recovering without problems; the question is how many other people did they expose? As I believe I posted earlier, the CDC estimates we've had 100,000 cases in the U.S., but symptoms were mild in most people so they didn't seek medical help. Instead, they went about their lives and exposed who knows how many others who may be immunologically compromised.

Here's the CDC data for yesteray. TX has had a huge jump in cases. If we think back to when they had their first spread and some deaths, perhaps that gives some clues. And IL continues to surprise me with almost 1,000 cases in a non-Mexican border state. WI is close behind.

CDC H1N1 Flu | CDC H1N1 Flu Update: U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection

Unfortunately, the data above does not reflect the death of another patient in AZ. We are at double-digits in the U.S. reported deaths.

[i]As many have stated, we don't get that excited with regular flu deaths. True, but again, this flu is hitting the WRONG population. Deaths from regular flu are more predictable of who is at the highest risk. Kids under 15, and those under 50 as well as pregnant women (regardless of the spin about other health problems) are NOT the ones who die from regular flu![/I]

Youth deaths and the unknown amount of mutations H1N1 is making are two of the reason scientists are watching so closely.

NCM raised a good point that many probably don't care if they haven't been taught basic info about infectious disease control. I think it takes only one time of having someone close to you die from H1N1 to make some believers. Then again, as someone emailed me a few days ago essentially these words: if we want to stick our heads in the sand and pretend it can't happen in ID, we will do that. Maybe some of us need to start thinking what could happen in ID."

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

From the WHO conference in Geneva. Published yesterday:

Tests of new flu virus suggests more are out there | Reuters

Some, if not, all this in will be published in Science.

A few important points in this article:

"The most complete analysis yet of the new H1N1 swine flu virus shows it must have been circulating undetected for years, most likely in pigs, researchers said on Friday."

"They also confirmed the odd mixture of human, pig and bird genes in the new virus, which has infected more than 11,000 people in 42 countries, and killed 86 of them. The World Health Organization is poised to declare a full pandemic of the virus, which so far causes mostly mild disease in people."

"They confirmed what flu experts have been saying for years -- that influenza viruses can not only mutate quickly into new forms, but can swap whole segments of genetic information with other viruses, creating new versions to infect people.


"Flu experts get worried when viruses go straight from animals to people. Usually they do not pass any further than one person -- for example the feared H5N1 avian influenza virus that has infected 429 people and killed 262 of them rarely passes from person to person."

"But when they do, they can flash around the world with deadly effect."


What do you think about these statements?

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

I found this today in looking for world updates. Kuwait joined the ever expanding list of countries with their first H1N1 cases, which isn't reflected in this graph. What is included is the first confirmed case in Russia.

This should be informative to watch from day -to-day (M-F): It is outdated as the U.S. doesn't show the 10th death; however, it still gives one the feel for how quickly countries are diagnosing cases. For example, the U.S. had 788 more cases in this graph than the one issued the previous day. ~ way to monitor info.

WHO | Influenza A(H1N1) - update 37

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

Just when I was feeling cautiously optomistic about H1N1, news of another man in his 20s dying was released today. He was in Chicago and had been hospitalized almost two weeks.

Chicago swine flu victim was 22-year-old man -- chicagotribune.com

I find it interesting that the public health official quoted in the article above mentioned that they (public health) aren't even asking people if they traveled to Mexico or abroad anymore because, "The virus is spreading everywhere in the city right now."

If you've ben reading this thread you know that I have pointed out several times the disproportionate amount of cases in IL and WI compared to other areas. At various times during the last month, anywhere from 25 - 33% of all U.S. cases were in IL/WI. I wonder if we'll start to see more deaths now.

One more time we see a death in the wrong age population. Why that matters is: 1. The obvious, H1N1 isn't doing what "normal flu" does, 2. The concern of whether or not the virus is mutating, 3. Are the anti-viral agents NO LONGER working - these patients are dying in hospitals and have been treated. However, as noted so many times, the anti-virals must be started within 48 hrs. of the illness. It appears that many haven't felt as sick at first and then have gotten worse with time. 4. Finally, certain age groups are at more risk with H1N1. Maybe the theory of being born prior to 1957 is correct, if so, then perhaps treatments need to focus on those born after then.

Also, China has more cases, which isn't good, and countries previously who didn't have H1N1 are now reporting their first cases, such as Romania. Plus, there many more cases in several countries.

Egypt is reporting two children have tested positive for H5N1. If you've been reading this thread, you know that H5N1 is bird flu. There was already at least one death from H5N1 this month and other infections. The big concern again, is what if H1N1 and H5N1 somehow meet and recombine into a lethal, fast spreading virus?

I've heard others. who are scientists, molecular biologists etc. or treating practitioners/physicians etc. share their fear that we will not be able to get rid of H1N1 in the U.S. prior to our "normal" flu season.

Currently, we have about 13,000 people in 46 different countries who have all tested positive for H1N1, with over 100 deaths internationally. The numbers changes daily. Australia, apparently, isn't going to wait for the matter to worsen in one of its states. Instead, they are going to "mass treat," in that state.

Australia state to carry out mass H1N1 treatment | Reuters


The good news: Sanofi, GSK and two other major pharmaceutical companies have received samples from the CDC so work to make a vaccine can begin. Let's hope what the pharmaceutical companies make will be close enough genetically to what comes back during our regular flu season to help.

Please continue to wash your hands, protect yourself and others from coughs/sneezes and practice good infectious disease hygience.

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

Sadly, there are more U.S. deaths to report. They were not announced in time yesterday to be included in the CDC 5/27/09 daily briefing.

Two more deaths linked to H1N1 virus reported - CNN.com

This now makes two deaths in the Chicago area in 4 days from H1N1. I won't be surprised if more follow, given how many cases of flu IL has had.

AZ ties NY as the state with the most deaths. With the information contained in the CNN report, each state now has 4 deaths. Probably, that data will be reflected in today's briefing by the CDC.

PLEASE don't stop any of the healthy practices you've started to keep yourself and your family/friends/co-workers as safe as possible. We're a long way from seeing this round #1 be finished, given the states that were hit the hardest.

Take care of those you love (and those with whom you work, too).

MSR