Swine Flu in Idaho (Pocatello, Idaho Falls: dangerous, stats, to move)

[pimit2]

Good Day, MSR,

I applaud you for providing us with the latest news on the H1N1 outbreak. Your daily updates are informative, useful, and often, scary. Bless you and thank you for your efforts to keep us vigilant and safe.

Earlier today, I read a recent post from you on this thread where you said:

I'm sad to see the U.S. overtake Mexico with the amount of deaths.

I have many friends in Mexico leftover from business interests I had there years ago. I telephoned one of them (a hotel manager) and just finished the call. While I called him for a different reason, I asked about the H1N1 flu situation in Mexico. Let me paraphrase how he replied without prompting from me:

Tourism is a vital part of Mexico's economy. The industry is suffering due to the world economy, the ongoing street wars carried out by gunmen from drug cartels, and the threat posed by the H1N1 outbreak.

I told him I had seen a recent newscast declaring that deaths from the virus had reached 116 in Mexico. He laughed, and said:

It's probably much, much higher than that but the numbers are kept low by the government to lessen the impact on tourism.

I can only imagine that other countries (and possibly even some of our states) might be reporting low to help themselves. Am I right, MSR? If so, what don't we know?

Keep up the good work, my friend!


pimit2 (Bob)

[Mtn. States Resident]

This info was printed in Pittsburgh as part of a PENN Study, funded by NIH. The entire article will be in the New England Journal of Medicine on 07/16/09.

I encourage you to read this summary, as there is a lot of great detail in it.


From the article,

"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the average age of swine flu victims is 12; the average age of hospitalized patients is 20; and of those who died, 37."

PITT STUDY: Accidental release blamed in swine flu outbreak - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Finally, some information from a very, very credible sources (NIH funding PITT to research and print this article in the New England Journal of Medicine) which will be in publication in two weeks.

It does make me wonder if this ties back into what you posted, Torrie. Maybe what was essentially a "stump," (not trying to insult, just not as much info vs. opinion in what I read) was someone who had heard about the Pitt Data and either couldn't release what they knew, due to confidentiality/funding etc. rules. Or, it was released via a grapevine so people wouldn't be so surprised? I don't know, just thoughts on my part.

This article addresses many questions from accidental release of frozen virus at Ft. Dix to information the Veterinarians have tried to share, the 1918 outbreak, the 1977 outbreak and much more.

I can't wait to read the 07/16/09 NEJM publication and this information!..........

Take Care, Prepare and Be Aware of A/H1N1

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

Originally Posted by pimit2

Good Day, MSR,

I applaud you for providing us with the latest news on the H1N1 outbreak. Your daily updates are informative, useful, and often, scary. Bless you and thank you for your efforts to keep us vigilant and safe.

Earlier today, I read a recent post from you on this thread where you said:

I have many friends in Mexico leftover from business interests I had there years ago. I telephoned one of them (a hotel manager) and just finished the call. While I called him for a different reason, I asked about the H1N1 flu situation in Mexico. Let me paraphrase how he replied without prompting from me:

Tourism is a vital part of Mexico's economy. The industry is suffering due to the world economy, the ongoing street wars carried out by gunmen from drug cartels, and the threat posed by the H1N1 outbreak.

I told him I had seen a recent newscast declaring that deaths from the virus had reached 116 in Mexico. He laughed, and said:

It's probably much, much higher than that but the numbers are kept low by the government to lessen the impact on tourism.

I can only imagine that other countries (and possibly even some of our states) might be reporting low to help themselves. Am I right, MSR? If so, what don't we know?

Keep up the good work, my friend!


pimit2 (Bob)

Hi Bob,

Sorry to hear about your friend in Mexico. Yes, many, many industries are hurting from A/H1N1. I've resisted posting info from Delta and others. Just check out any biz journal as each region seems to be reporting their specific losses (be it tourism, lack of days worked due to a sick work force etc.).

I can only refer you to the CDC and WHO for official info, Bob. CDC challenged Mexico early in May or even late April about the official outbreak. Some think last fall. That info can be found in general searches or skimming through the sub-categories of the CDC.

IMHO, YES, this deadly virus is terribly under-reported. With what I just posted above, Alleghany Co, PA (Pittsburgh) now is not testing all with the virus either. I've documented often how "unwise" (the politest word I can think of) it has been for UT to suspend community testing where thousands have had the virus. I know UT couldn't keep up with the samples and volume of patients.

So it only stands to reason other states are starting to under-report too. Also, I do worry what is happening in the more rural states and some healthcare providers who don't recognize what they are seeing is actually
A/H1N1, also under-reporting true cases.

The third fact, is the virus is changing. Data thought to be solid, such as incubation time, that the CDC published in April has now changed. We were initially told 1-3 or 1-7 days incubation time. Now, it is from time of exposure until the first day of recovery.

Many, many clinicians are watching a pattern of relatively mild symptoms for 1-2 weeks, then patients showing markedly more severe symptoms in the 3rd week. Perhaps if those patients had been treated in the first week, they wouldn't have had a third week of the illness, I don't know. Now, I'll have to post a link about that - as Denmark has reported the first resistant case to Tamiflu treatment.

Finally, while this is strictly my opinion, denial and NIMBY thinking, are what have hurt us the most. Denial from the average person on the street to trained medical professionals who can't think outside of their personal box.

I'll keep you as updated as I can, Bob. Thanks for your support. Some of us sensed the trend when the wrong age groups were getting the most severely ill and then dying. Many still didn't want to believe this could happen. I'll send you a DM later (in my free time - I really will send it), as I shared with a few others here some info I can't write openly here.

Take care of yourself, please keep us updated on what is happening in the Panhandle and those in the rest of the world with whom you communicate. Cleosmom encouraged me (and I still haven't done it to me) to post in the travel section. People need to know how many cases and how severe they are in border states.

Conversely, Idaho residents need to know what great little bugs are coming with the tourists. Just remember the 6 ft. rule - standing 6 ft. away from someone should be enough room so droplets can't get on you or the other person. A warm, welcoming smile will mean a lot more now than it did a few years ago.

Take care,

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

Just a quick article that may help explain more. Right now, a lot of medical journals and/or websites usually restricted have opened certain information to get more people reading. Don't be afraid to read in a site one hasn't visited previously.

If you don't understand an article, bring it here and we can discuss it.


I'm glad this article stresses two points (and I skimmed it quickly, due to time constraints, so others may find more. Please post if you do). First, they are knocking out some of the "old" theories about co-morbid (pre-existing diseases) making people at higher risk of getting A/H1N1.

Secondly, more articles are posting info from journals that people do have to subscribe to for access to the information. Posting salient pieces of those articles seems very reasonable to me, as the articles are giving us a stronger foundation of knowledge, but this virus is changing at Internet speed.

Medical News: Swine Flu Can Kill Even the Previously Healthy - in Infectious Disease, Swine Flu from MedPage Today

What did you learn or think about differently after this article?

Prepare and Be Aware 'Cuz A/H1N1 isn't going away.

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

When I first saw a headline about this I cringed. At the time, it seemed the "hot idea," was coming from NJ. Today, there are dozens of articles of how the idea originated in England.


"Are Swine Flu Parties a Bad Idea?"

Are 'Swine flu parties' a bad idea? - Parental Guidance - Melysa Schmitt - NJ.com


Doctors warn against 'swine flu parties' - CNN.com

Swine Flu Parties - Schott’s Vocab Blog - NYTimes.com

I have many close friends in NJ. Many of the brightest scientists in pharmaceuticals work in (and often live in) NJ. Consequently, I was quite surprised when I saw the NJ press reporting parents wanting to have the "Swine Flu Parties."

CAUTION - The Following Contents May Be Very Disturbing:

I was saddened to see this article just out from NJ. I hope this child did NOT attend a so-called, "Swine Flu Party."

BREAKING NEWS: Jackson Township NJ elementary school student dies from H1N1 virus : Jackson NJ Regional Opinions News Reviews – Jackson Howell Freehold Lakewood Toms River

The UK is full of articles from the BBC, regional news outlets to the Star:
First picture of Sameerah Ahmad the youngest girl in England to die after contracting swine flu | The Sun |News

I think "Swine Flu Parties," are not only dangerous, but can have consequences for a lifetime. One of the saddest stories from my professional career, involves a family who had an older child with mumps or measles, I don't recall at the moment. In an effort to "get it over," for all the kids, one parent placed a young infant (less than 3 months old) in the same room with the older, sick sibling. The older child recovered from the childhood illness. The infant did not.

Think of what it was like for those parents to bury an infant that had been perfectly healthy until one of them exposed the baby to a deadly pathogen, via an older child, given the baby's immunity at the time. They didn't know their baby could die in a matter of hours. They only knew they were tired and thought they were tired of staying up with a whiney school-age child who was sick.

Call neighbors, family, friends or healthcare professionals if you've got sick kids and can't cope anymore.

PLEASE - DO NOT EXPOSE OTHER CHILDREN JUST SO EVERYONE CAN HAVE THE INFECTION AT THE SAME TIME, UNLESS YOU ARE READY TO BURY YOUR CHILDREN!

Any question where I stand about A/H1N1 and "parties?" Please don't do it.

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

First case of Tamiflu resistance in swine flu emerges in Denmark

It sounds like the patient was changed to Relenza, which is also an anti-viral drug.

I wonder what Idaho's stockpile of Relenza is?

MSR

[Western gal]

Anyone see this link on Drudge Report's web site? Dog flu virus?

The Dog Flu Virus: Are You or Your Pet at Risk? - Consults Blog - NYTimes.com

[Mtn. States Resident]

Originally Posted by Western gal

Anyone see this link on Drudge Report's web site? Dog flu virus?

The Dog Flu Virus: Are You or Your Pet at Risk? - Consults Blog - NYTimes.com

I saw a headline, which I didn't have time to f/u that one of the pharmaceutical companies is making a vaccine for canines.

Also, as I have discussed privately with someone who posts here, veterinarians will tell you animals cannot get human viruses and vice versa. I've got to get one other post up, but will post the first info the AVMA posted about "Swine Flu," when that was the generic name for H1N1.

There is indeed a Canine Flu, Western Gal. If you look on the CDC website, you'll see along with about two other species, canines are having flu tracked this year. The reason science prefers using the in H and N, is it is a quick short-hand way to denote species.

Avian flu, I believe is H5N1, where so much is in Indonesia right now.

Canine flu - - check it out on the CDC webpage. It is something like H3N8. Originally in horses then went to canines.

I'll be interested to see what you find, Western Gal, as there is info out there.

Unlike their DVM colleagues, MDs believe viruses/bacteria can be passed from human to canines. Sometimes, the family pet has to have his/her tonsils removed as s/he is a chronic carrier of Strept. and humans in the home can't recover from repeated infections until the carrier is cured too.

Keep posting questions and observations please so everyone can discuss.

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

Utah released the weekly M and M today.

For the first week in a while, NO NEW DEATHS!!!!!!!!!! And only 11 new hospitalized patients.... YIPEE! I credit the media and enough people having cared for patients, either at home or in medical facilities, or clinics etc., as getting the word out about real risks.

I've found it interesting that KIFI in Idaho Falls has been tracking this and had their post up before I could post, which is GREAT! KUDOS - KIFI, even if it was just the AP posting. It shows some are watching trends so Idaho residents and visitors are better warned.

"Health officials: Swine flu cases easing in Utah"

Health officials: Swine flu cases easing in Utah - KIFI - Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Jackson WY - Weather News Sports-

Eastern, southwestern and southeastern ID should be watching the trends.

I'm very, very happy Utah's numbers are down, at least this week. I'll feel better in 2-3 weeks when all those in the hospitals now have had their families and others close to them treated with an anti-viral, others exposed a few weeks ago, who weren't treated, don't have serious enough cases to be added to the state's total. I [edited my own remarks] about some things for now.

If wave #1 is decreasing in UT, IMHO, it is first due to churches, camps and other public gathering places closing for a period of time, directives to medical personnel in UT to treat patients for H1N1 and some very effective planning by certain healthcare organizations to educate, get masks out to sick or potentially sick people and heaven only knows how many truckerloads of hand sanitzer at every place people could possibly use it. Of course those are just my observations. Others may have noticed different factors.

http://www.sltrib.com/portlet/articl...384&siteId=297

I will agree from personal knowledge I have that Intermountain Medical Center peaked about 3 weeks ago, as referenced in the Trib Article. I won't feel like UT is totally turning around until about two more weeks from now, as all those hospitalized infected others. Like the Trib article says, those found in the E.R. are much sicker than the first cases.

I'm still bothered the Trib is only talking to Intermountain Medical Center and the University Hospital. I understand it is the quick and easy thing to do. However, one would think Primary Children's would have a say, let alone HCA and Iasis. So I'm not quite as convinced as the reporters that the hot spots in the Wasatch Front are as quiet as they think. Clearly, some are - and that is great!!!!!!!!!! I'll be happier when the media remembers the other healthcare systems (hospitals/clinics) in the Wasatch Front.

Utah, as I've documentd previously, isn't counting the average community case where people stay home sick.

Overall, this is the best news I've read from UT to date!

MSR

[Mtn. States Resident]

The latest info from the CDC.

CDC H1N1 Flu | CDC H1N1 Flu Update: U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection

Idaho now has reported 92 cases with 0 deaths.

Bordering states:

Montana: 67 cases with 0 deaths

Nevada: 301 cases with 0 deaths

Oregon: 366 cases with 4 deaths ( 1 more death since last week)

Utah: 920* cases with 10 deaths

Washinton: 588 cases with 4 deaths (I don't remember for sure, but I thought WA only had only experienced 3 deaths last week).

Wyoming: 81 cases with 0 deaths

* Utah hasn't counted community based cases since early June. New cases reported only reflect additional hospitalizations and/or deaths. I have to laugh when UT shows up as "no report." However, it may be due to these stats being released on 07/02/09, since 07/03/09 is a federal holiday. Utah government only has a four day workweek. Probably, the report didn't make it by the deadline.

Does anyone have any idea what is happening in WI? Almost 6,000 cases reported, and the Packers haven't even started to play yet. That is almost double the cases that IL has reported.

Also, this is an important graphic to watch as Idaho is in Region X (as classified by Health and Human Services). Region X was the only other region, besides Region II (which includes NY, NJ, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands) to show an elevated status in outpatient cases of flu-like illnesses. ID does have more cases and OR, the state I am watching the closest right now, is in Region X as well. WA shows their spread going from sporadic to local.

NV, also is reporting local compared to sporadic last week. NV data can easily get lost without careful inspection, since the state is in Region IV along with CA, AZ, and HI - all states among the highest in the nation with infection rate per state population.

CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Weekly Report: Influenza Summary Update Week 25, 2008-2009 Season

It will be interesting to see which REGIONAL MEDIA starts to use this page of graphics as I haven't seen it anywhere yet, except the CDC. Now that I have posted these other graphs, it will be quite interesting to see if any media utilizes the wealth of data contained in these graphs.

Stay hopeful that the hot weather, preventive measures, aggressive treatment in some of the hotspots is slowing this pandemic down.

Enjoy the 4th of July Safely and Healthy

MSR


P. S. Look at the darkest areas on the first CDC map, if you are planning on traveling to know the general level of infection.