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Old 07-09-2007, 02:24 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,114 posts, read 10,180,490 times
Reputation: 4851

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"CIA" and "intelligence" are an oxymoron (too many examples to cite).

Castro is not dying anytime soon, he may live another twenty years.

When Castro dies, not much will change in Cuba: despite the propaganda, the US has no such interest and it will work to prop up his eventual successor just as the trade and travel embargo has been Castro's most precious ally in propping him up all these years.

The only spoiler I see in all of this is Venezuela.

Anyway, anyone's guess is as good as the next one's, including the CIA's. Probably what you read is somebody's intention to spook a group of people for whatever obscure reason.

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.

Last edited by bale002; 07-09-2007 at 03:12 AM..
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Old 07-09-2007, 05:28 AM
 
975 posts, read 3,382,963 times
Reputation: 263
I agree--why assume that the whole system there is going to collapse when he dies?


Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
"CIA" and "intelligence" are an oxymoron (too many examples to cite).

Castro is not dying anytime soon, he may live another twenty years.

When Castro dies, not much will change in Cuba: despite the propaganda, the US has no such interest and it will work to prop up his eventual successor just as the trade and travel embargo has been Castro's most precious ally in propping him up all these years.

The only spoiler I see in all of this is Venezuela.

Anyway, anyone's guess is as good as the next one's, including the CIA's. Probably what you read is somebody's intention to spook a group of people for whatever obscure reason.

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
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Old 07-09-2007, 05:45 AM
 
61 posts, read 201,362 times
Reputation: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
"CIA" and "intelligence" are an oxymoron (too many examples to cite).

Castro is not dying anytime soon, he may live another twenty years.

When Castro dies, not much will change in Cuba: despite the propaganda, the US has no such interest and it will work to prop up his eventual successor just as the trade and travel embargo has been Castro's most precious ally in propping him up all these years.

The only spoiler I see in all of this is Venezuela.

Anyway, anyone's guess is as good as the next one's, including the CIA's. Probably what you read is somebody's intention to spook a group of people for whatever obscure reason.

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.

I disagree. Yes the us govt has no interest in cuba, but the developers and hotels and big corps. who control congress are very, very interested in cuba.
Actually, they are foaming at the mouth for a chance to buy an entire tropic island for pennies on the dollar and fill it with casinos, hotels, condos etc...

Prior to castro, it was a major tourism and gambling spot as you know.

By the way, the TSA and border patrol has done a great job stopping people coming in from mexico. Are we at 12 million immigrants now?
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Old 07-09-2007, 07:07 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,114 posts, read 10,180,490 times
Reputation: 4851
Quote:
Originally Posted by HowdyYall View Post
I disagree. Yes the us govt has no interest in Cuba, but the developers and hotels and big corps. who control congress are very, very interested in Cuba.
Actually, they are foaming at the mouth for a chance to buy an entire tropic island for pennies on the dollar and fill it with casinos, hotels, condos etc...

Prior to Castro, it was a major tourism and gambling spot as you know.
There may be conflicting interests among the Executive, Congress, and corporations, both national and those with a heavy stake in southern Florida.

What you cite are the very reasons why, in my view, despite the propaganda that the US official policy is democratic change in and the re-opening of Cuba, in reality the balance of power in the US, so far at least, has no interest in change in Cuba.

If Cuba resumes its development from the 1950s, who would want to go to southern Florida? The whole place would tank (exaggeration).

Seriously, the southern Florida economy is not deep enough to withstand competition from such a close, huge competitor with better beaches and other more interesting geographical features, just to name a few factors in Cuba's favor.

Now, this balance of power in the US could change, maybe with a change of US administration, maybe with the death of Castro, maybe not.

Maybe the tipping point will be when the balance of power believes that southern Florida could withstand such a competitor, but I don't see that right now with the current financial mess, among other problems, that the state, and the regional in particular, are in the midst of. But, then again, the Cuba policy could change as part of a strategy to alleviate those very problems.

We'll see, but then again maybe some of us won't: the balance of power in the US with respect to Cuba policy may not change and Castro could outlive many of us.

Like I said, anyone's guess is as good as the next one. Maybe Ladbrokes (I believe) in London will take betting action on the question.

Also, as I mentioned, Venezuela may be a spoiler: if its influence becomes too strong, the US may be forced to intervene militarily, something analogous in strategic terms to the 1962 missile crisis; on the other hand, Venezuela's influence could precipitate a change in the travel and trade embargo.

In fact, I believe that would be the most efficient way of dealing with Cuba, provided such a change in policy is affected before it's too late with respect to Venezuela or other possible threats, both domestic and international.

Anyway, we could conjecture all day. It's a very complicated balance-of-power situation, that's why, again, anyone's guess is as good as the next one.

My personal hope is that the situation is resolved peacefully through a gradual change in the US travel and change embargo, but this may be just wishful thinking.

Last edited by bale002; 07-09-2007 at 07:33 AM..
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Old 07-09-2007, 12:10 PM
 
Location: Jacksonville,Florida
3,772 posts, read 9,372,972 times
Reputation: 1979
Quote:
Originally Posted by lisamiami View Post
I was reading some interesting articles that said the CIA has intelligence that once castro dies, there will be a huge exodus of people from cuba to miami and the keys. It said that people are already preparing rafts and escape plans. They said that thousands and thousands of rafts will arrive along the keys and the US has no way to stop it.

Any comments?
Where did you read this article? What was your source of information?
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Old 07-09-2007, 02:47 PM
 
Location: NYC
41 posts, read 227,274 times
Reputation: 18
If and When Castro dies, I believe his brother will take over, and from what I've heard, he is much worse than castro. So they need to pray that he lives.
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Old 07-09-2007, 02:50 PM
 
102 posts, read 515,434 times
Reputation: 135
blow evereyone of them outta the water before they get here
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Old 07-09-2007, 05:09 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,114 posts, read 10,180,490 times
Reputation: 4851
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris22 View Post
blow evereyone of them outta the water before they get here
That is extremely harsh, Chris22, but yes, it is within the US government's power to do just that if it deems in its best interests, but it may not.

Hopefully we'll never have to find out and we'll witness, gradual, peaceful change.

Anyway, I think a mass exodus is an extreme scenario, not the base case, and such articles are published either for entertainment value or because one power group wants to spook another for whatever obscure reason, or both.
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Old 07-10-2007, 08:56 AM
 
1,484 posts, read 3,704,853 times
Reputation: 731
Default yes

Quote:
Originally Posted by lisamiami View Post
I was reading some interesting articles that said the CIA has intelligence that once castro dies, there will be a huge exodus of people from cuba to miami and the keys. It said that people are already preparing rafts and escape plans. They said that thousands and thousands of rafts will arrive along the keys and the US has no way to stop it.

Any comments?
Yea they know about, where they will comes and when but they cant do anything about. I should say that about my taxes
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