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Old 11-14-2010, 12:20 PM
 
Location: 3rd rock from the sun
3,858 posts, read 5,966,102 times
Reputation: 1806

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Enrollment in the Tucson United School District (TUSD) declined about 3% (1,600 students) over the summer of 2010.
Attendance declined about 2% (1,000 students).

The population in the TUSD is about 10% of Arizona's population - with straight extrapolation this would indicate a change of about 16,000 (1,600*10) students in Arizona over the summer. Some of this loss may be attributable to a decline in the illegal alien population -some to other factors. If we assume an average family size of 3-4 that could indicate a population decline of 48,000-64,000 over the summer - some of which are illegal aliens.
Other assumptions and variables will yield different results.

6,595,778: Arizona population (2009)
548,555: City of Tucson population (approx area of the TUSD)
1,023,320: Tuscon metro area

TUSD Enrollment on 100th day each year
2006 59,400
2007 59,100
2008 57,500
2009 54,900
2010 53,000



TUSDStats Demographic Attendance Data
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Old 11-14-2010, 04:27 PM
 
Location: 3rd rock from the sun
3,858 posts, read 5,966,102 times
Reputation: 1806
The Arizona Dept of Ed. releases state-wide Oct 1st enrollment numbers each year. They have not yet released October 2010.

Date ..........Total.......Hispanic
1-Oct-2006 1,120,759 450,999
1-Oct-2007 1,148,696 468,368
1-Oct-2008 1,078,697 447,008
1-Oct-2009 1,086,047 450,110

Arizona October 1st Enrollment Figures Home Page (http://www.ade.az.gov/researchpolicy/AZEnroll/ - broken link)

2008 and 2009 numbers are lower due to a 2008 change in counting rules that, among other things, avoids double counting.
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Old 11-15-2010, 09:40 AM
 
47,576 posts, read 58,783,393 times
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At least the school in Arizona shouldnt be demanding another huge tax increase. I imagine the schools elsewhere will.
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