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Old 02-12-2011, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Maryland
15,179 posts, read 15,888,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
The data from the Mexican Population data ceter - a government site actually. Though you can get a comparison to us Census and UN data back a chart.

And a quick cite as to your view that Pew has a bias? They are I think a major source for almost all rational sites that write on this subject.

The triple or quadruple estimate is mine but is a fully rational and reasonable one. It is in fact optimistic as generally organizations lose efficiency as the task gets bigger.

If it cost n billion to deport 350,000 it will cost 2n billion to deport 700,000.

And that is overly optimistic as the cherrys get picked and you have to hunt for them and they resist in the courts. And note that political resistance will surely occur and be very strong in some areas of the country.
I would trust data from the Mexican government as much as I would trust the KKK to produce an unbiased documentary on “The Black Experience.” Of course you have a right to your opinion, but I doubt enforcement would require such a substantial budget increase. If so, how will the government afford to enforce the “new” immigration laws? Moreover, how can the government possibly afford to fund the increased resources which would be required to implement an amnesty for possibly 30 million?
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Old 02-12-2011, 04:48 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,647,636 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benicar View Post
I would trust data from the Mexican government as much as I would trust the KKK to produce an unbiased documentary on “The Black Experience.” Of course you have a right to your opinion, but I doubt enforcement would require such a substantial budget increase. If so, how will the government afford to enforce the “new” immigration laws? Moreover, how can the government possibly afford to fund the increased resources which would be required to implement an amnesty for possibly 30 million?
Again...the US census and UN data were back a chart. And I fail to see why you would argue with the Mexican data....other than perhaps you have some bias against Mexicans? Given they are the government most concerned about this trend I wouid see no particular reason to distrust their data.

The government is capable of handling perhaps 350,000 or 400,000 cases a year. I think you might want to up that by half again even if you do amnesty to make sure we have the capability to keep the number of illegals in the US below a 100,000 or perhaps 200,000 worse case. That will cost some money over what we spend now. And we need better inflow and control systems. And we need to hunt the remainder down...which is manpower intensive. I would think though that five or ten years in we would be able to drop that enforcement to a much lower level as we get the problem under control and convince the immagrees that we will nail them if they sneak in or overstay.

The assimilation of the illegals can take place over 10 or 20 years with steps taken to try and control cost. Simply need to do the legislation right. And I certainly hope your 30 million is incorrect. I would think 10 million or 12 if we do it soon.
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Old 02-12-2011, 05:05 PM
 
Location: Maryland
15,179 posts, read 15,888,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Again...the US census and UN data were back a chart. And I fail to see why you would argue with the Mexican data....other than perhaps you have some bias against Mexicans? Given they are the government most concerned about this trend I wouid see no particular reason to distrust their data.

The government is capable of handling perhaps 350,000 or 400,000 cases a year. I think you might want to up that by half again even if you do amnesty to make sure we have the capability to keep the number of illegals in the US below a 100,000 or perhaps 200,000 worse case. That will cost some money over what we spend now. And we need better inflow and control systems. And we need to hunt the remainder down...which is manpower intensive. I would think though that five or ten years in we would be able to drop that enforcement to a much lower level as we get the problem under control and convince the immagrees that we will nail them if they sneak in or overstay.

The assimilation of the illegals can take place over 10 or 20 years with steps taken to try and control cost. Simply need to do the legislation right. And I certainly hope your 30 million is incorrect. I would think 10 million or 12 if we do it soon.
I have absolutely nothing against Mexicans. However, the Mexican government is as corrupt as they come, and would like nothing more than to rid their country of all of their underclass.

You still haven’t answered my questions? How can we afford to enforce new immigration laws if we lack the funds to enforce the current? And, how can we possibly afford to fund the additional resources necessary to identify, conduct background checks, administer medical exams, issue documents, monitor for compliance, enforce regulations. . . to name a few?

I hope I’m wrong, but if we use the 1986 amnesty as a gauge, the government estimated 1 million, but the actual numbers were in excess of 3 million. According to the government, we now have 10.8 million illegals. Therefore, it is not farfetched to assume we have at least 3 times that number. Of course, they have fed us a 12 million number for the past 10 years.

I am not interested in the assimilation of illegal aliens. I am only interested in ridding our country of this scourge, by whatever means necessary.
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Old 02-12-2011, 05:09 PM
 
Location: OCEAN BREEZES AND VIEWS SAN CLEMENTE
19,899 posts, read 15,404,456 times
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Great Concept, Great Idea! how do we hold those accountable in our Government who are responsbile for this mess we have!
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:09 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,647,636 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benicar View Post
I have absolutely nothing against Mexicans. However, the Mexican government is as corrupt as they come, and would like nothing more than to rid their country of all of their underclass.

You still haven’t answered my questions? How can we afford to enforce new immigration laws if we lack the funds to enforce the current? And, how can we possibly afford to fund the additional resources necessary to identify, conduct background checks, administer medical exams, issue documents, monitor for compliance, enforce regulations. . . to name a few?

I hope I’m wrong, but if we use the 1986 amnesty as a gauge, the government estimated 1 million, but the actual numbers were in excess of 3 million. According to the government, we now have 10.8 million illegals. Therefore, it is not farfetched to assume we have at least 3 times that number. Of course, they have fed us a 12 million number for the past 10 years.

I am not interested in the assimilation of illegal aliens. I am only interested in ridding our country of this scourge, by whatever means necessary.
Actually no...the Mexican government is not particularly corrupt. By SA standards they are reasonably good. They have the standard corruptions...ie the police are underpaid and take bribes....but that is true in virtually any country that does not pay the cops well. They of course have their terrible war with the drug cartels...but they appear to actually be fighting it rather than succumbing to the money. It is hard to be uncorrupt when it can get you killed.

The Mexican demographics do not really allow for large errors in their part of this affair. Nor are the Mexicans eager to continue the existing outflow. They may well attempt to limit it on their side in the not too distant future. They need to maintain a sufficient working class to keep their agriculture and industry happy. They have pretty much gotten rid of their overage and now have concerns about population maintenance. Note that the birth rate in Mexico is now about replacement level and similar to that in the US.

I suspect that may well turn out to be the eventual relief of this disaster. We will run out of Mexicans.

We can't afford to fix the existing problem because we let it grow past the fixable level. I am not sure there exists enough money to fix the problem we have now. We finesse the problem by an amnesty. We reduce it to a level that we can manage. We make it very easy to get legal. That is so we have all the names addresses and numbers. Then take time and care to see who gets past that stage. We charge fees to offset most of the cost. We send the questionable back to Mexico.
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:21 PM
 
3,493 posts, read 2,402,105 times
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The last thing our economy needs is to make it easy for unskilled, non-English speaking, poorly educated people from a single country to gain easy access to American citizenship and all the benefits that come with it. The only people who want amnesty for people like that are ethnic lobby and employers too cheap to pay decent wages. We should subsidize neither of those groups.
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:23 PM
 
14,307 posts, read 11,214,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Don't you folk ever tire of baying at the moon?

To actually prevent illegals working would require internal passports and likely control of all cash transactions.

The US continues to resist such steps.

Tightening employment policy mostly drives them from the white to the gray market.

Even the everify so loved here has about a 50% error rate in allowing illegals to be cleared.

The problem was allowed to become too big and no longer has an enforcement solution.

But bay on...that maintains the status quo and guarantees the worse case outcome.
Please post a viable link to your claim that e-verify has a 50% error rate in allowing illegals to be cleared. We'll be waiting.
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:33 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,647,636 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagonut View Post
Please post a viable link to your claim that e-verify has a 50% error rate in allowing illegals to be cleared. We'll be waiting.
See page 6 of

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Native%20...%20Program.pdf

Ity says 3.3% of the 6.2% of unauthorized workers were cleared. That is well over 50%

This is the actual report. The web is filled with blogs and news items reporting the same in less friendly terms.

And I would also point out that anyone spending the least amount of knowing attention to this subject would have known that. You have to be completely lacking in knowledge of illegal immigration not to have picked it up. It has been featured in blogs and reports for the last year or more.
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:48 PM
 
14,307 posts, read 11,214,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
See page 6 of

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Native%20...%20Program.pdf

Ity says 3.3% of the 6.2% of unauthorized workers were cleared. That is well over 50%

This is the actual report. The web is filled with blogs and news items reporting the same in less friendly terms.

And I would also point out that anyone spending the least amount of knowing attention to this subject would have known that. You have to be completely lacking in knowledge of illegal immigration not to have picked it up. It has been featured in blogs and reports for the last year or more.
The only stats I have seen on e-verify is that is it has something like a 96-98% accuracy rate. No need to question my knowledge on this subject or other subtle and not so subtle insinuations. I haven't seen these stats on any blog or reports anywhere. I can't pull up any PDF files so I can't read it or make any assessment of it.
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Old 02-12-2011, 06:56 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,647,636 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagonut View Post
The only stats I have seen on e-verify is that is it has something like a 96-98% accuracy rate. No need to question my knowledge on this subject or other subtle and not so subtle insinuations. I haven't seen these stats on any blog or reports anywhere. I can't pull up any PDF files so I can't read it or make any assessment of it.
If you google

E-Verify error rate above 50%

You will get 596,000 hits. Look at the first ten.

I see no way any thinking person following this subject has not stumbled across that discussion. You don't need pdf.
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