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Old 08-10-2011, 06:37 PM
 
Location: California
2,477 posts, read 1,711,425 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBMMuseum View Post
No, you seem to misunderstand weighted results in polls...
look up one comment ^^
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Old 08-10-2011, 06:48 PM
 
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBMMuseum View Post
No, you seem to misunderstand weighted results in polls...
Weighting combined with the variables could inevitably skew the poll, especially when in Jan 2011 Gallup worded the question differently (Legalization vs Citizenship) and received much different results.
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Old 08-10-2011, 07:29 PM
 
335 posts, read 280,964 times
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Originally Posted by rhymetime View Post
Oh right, because when people use the word "agenda" they're usually trying to give the other person the benefit of the doubt and assume they are advocating their position in good faith.
That's solely your opinion.
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Old 08-10-2011, 07:39 PM
 
951 posts, read 616,596 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbartlebee View Post
That's solely your opinion.

She said some people's agenda is not in the best interest of the country in this thread. She says immigration reform proponents promote an un-American agenda in other threads. She says these people have an ethnocentric agenda to wipe out the white majority in this country. I'm pretty sure that's making them out to hate America, well it means you at least hate the American fantasy land she envisions. Do I really have to dig up quotes?
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Old 08-10-2011, 07:41 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquid Reigns View Post
You're right, the PDF of this (portion) of the survey shows that these are Q's 13-15 of a much larger poll. I wasn't seeing the variable for Hispanic Ethnicity within the Q's. Do you have the link for the entire poll, as even on Gallups site I am unable to find the entire survey along with its percentages of each race and how many are of Hispanic Ethnicity.

Since we know what the "controlled variables" consist of, what were the percentages of said "controlled variables". Is the survey skewed in anyway?

I am finding from the same polling agency, Gallup, that in Jan 2011 they concluded this:

43 in favor and 55 Opposing is quite different than their new poll.
In U.S., Alternative Energy Bill Does Best Among Eight Proposals
I don't have links beyond the Gallup site.

I'm not advocating for the strength of polling. Like any cynical student of political science, I believe it is mostly garbage. But I would assume that any weighting is geared toward accurate reflections of population demographics.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:51 PM
 
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockmadinejad View Post
But I would assume that any weighting is geared toward accurate reflections of population demographics.
I would to, except I would like to see how that weighting was reflected. As of right now, without having any other information from Gallup, it's rather hard to accept (it says so on the internets - isn't reason enough to accept) as relevant since the poll they conducted just 6 months earlier had a different outcome simply by changing the word "legalization" to "citizenship". A swing that big in a 6 month frame doesn't add up unless it is skewed in some way.
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Old 08-11-2011, 06:54 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquid Reigns View Post
I would to, except I would like to see how that weighting was reflected. As of right now, without having any other information from Gallup, it's rather hard to accept (it says so on the internets - isn't reason enough to accept) as relevant since the poll they conducted just 6 months earlier had a different outcome simply by changing the word "legalization" to "citizenship". A swing that big in a 6 month frame doesn't add up unless it is skewed in some way.
I genuinely believe people are dumb enough for tiny word changes to have an impact, but I'll check out the methodology later. But when they talk about weighting those variables, they are almost unquestionably talking about weighting them in a representative fashion. I mean, you wouldn't just assume that they're only polling females because it is weighted by sex.
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Old 08-11-2011, 09:26 AM
 
Location: California
2,477 posts, read 1,711,425 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockmadinejad View Post
... when they talk about weighting those variables, they are almost unquestionably talking about weighting them in a representative fashion. I mean, you wouldn't just assume that they're only polling females because it is weighted by sex.
I'm not assuming they are only polling Hispanics, either. Weighting is simply making all things equal in the end (here's a link), However there are known issues with weighted polls. Weighting can be generalized, range values can fluctuate by group, political ideology (too much of one, not enough of others), etc. etc.
Quote:
For example, let's say you have a poll with exactly one thousand respondents. However, you have 700 Whites responding, with 150 Asians, 100 Hispanics, and 250 Blacks. The 2000 US Census reports that the racial breakdown is 71.6% White, 12.3% Black, 12.5% Hispanic, and 3.6% Asian. To match these demographic statistics, the polling data would then be weighted in the following manner: The results from White respondents would be divided by 70.0 then multiplied by 71.6;
The results from Black respondents would be divided by 25.0 then multiplied by 12.3;
The results from Hispanic respondents would be divided by 10.0 then multiplied by 12.5; and
The results from Asian respondents would be divided by 15.0 then multiplied by 3.6.
Weighting and Other Poll Controversies (Wizbang)
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Old 08-11-2011, 09:43 AM
 
1,574 posts, read 788,884 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquid Reigns View Post
Weighting is simply making all things equal in the end
No, this is wrong.
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Old 08-11-2011, 09:46 AM
 
1,569 posts, read 1,005,127 times
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I mean, there's no foolproof way to poll. Polling is a mess, as I've said. My only point initially was that I couldn't understand why you'd think that poll was 100% Hispanic. Now you've gone on to say you know that it's not what it means, but weighted polls have issues generally. You've done so with what appears to be the first result from a Google search for "weighting polls."
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