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Old 02-28-2013, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Jacurutu
5,302 posts, read 4,010,077 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
Well, if we read some of the usual suspects on this forum, we can safely hazard a guess that if you take the entire Hispanic population, subtract 1% and also subtract the Cubans and Puerto Ricans, the remainder are either here illegally or are anchors.
On the North Carolina driver's license topic, it was estimated to be over 20% of the state as "illegal aliens", so subtracting off all the 8.7% Hispanics and 2.3% Asians, it still leaves 9% to be composed of whites and/or blacks...
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:19 PM
 
Location: texas
9,138 posts, read 6,482,842 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer View Post
Becoming legal doesn't make them citizens.
When did facts matter on this forum? 11 million, 25 million, or 50 million. Amensty, CIR, or Dream Act. It all means the same.
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Old 02-28-2013, 08:59 PM
 
47,576 posts, read 58,699,632 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBMMuseum View Post
I didn't have the chance to see a post made after mine today (working on a big project). No, there's quite a few times I don't have the energy or time to address all the claims here. What's the big deal about the total population of the state I live in, does it help me to determine how many illegal aliens are here?

It is a good check value however. I can make sure I'm not giving an unrealistic number that is over 20% of state's total population, or that would mean there are more white and/or black illegal aliens in the state rather than Hispanics. So far, "malamute" has suggested 10% or more of New Mexico's population are illegal aliens, but his methodology is really off, and he has a very poor credibility rating with me.

I'm still asking about other methodologies used. It appears it has mainly been based on observation skills that members have (i.e. "I see all those illegals around!" and "The south part of town has really been taken over by the illegals, because there are so many signs in Spanish over there!"). We've already discussed the unbelief methodology: "I don't believe the official numbers, it has to be double, triple, quadruple [or as the North Carolina driver's license thread, five times the number] that!".
It's got to be quite close to 10% with 8% of births being to illegals.

It would be a bit far-fetched to think it's only 4% illegals when the birth rate indicates 8%. Or else what we've suspected is defintely true, illegals are coming here giving birth to get around the immigration laws.
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Old 02-28-2013, 09:03 PM
 
47,576 posts, read 58,699,632 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldglory View Post
The claim of 25 million illegals in this country and the claim that they will soon become citizens in as short a time as 2 months I believe was made early this morning. He was obviously a pro-illegal. Odd how you never miss a beat challenging any stats from an anti-illegal in here but just happened to miss the 25 million claim, etc.

You said you didn't know the population of New Mexico. That is a separate issue from the number of illegals there. I was addressing the former statement by you not the latter which was made in your opening post. Just thought it odd since you live there.
And every time there is a census, it is La Raza that immediately begins to complain about the serious undercount of "hispanics" because they know many of the illegals are not getting included. Even in regions that showed 400% increases in the hispanic population, La Raza will say there was an undercount of them.

We know from the past presidential election and campaign that the illegal vote was the ONLY voting block that mattered. White American voters and Black American voters can no longer influence an election according to the open borders crowd.
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Old 02-28-2013, 10:00 PM
 
Location: Jacurutu
5,302 posts, read 4,010,077 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malamute View Post
It's got to be quite close to 10% with 8% of births being to illegals...
Did I just hear years of saying illegal aliens had extremely higher birthrates just get flushed away? Ten percent of a population having 8% of the births is a below-average birthrate. You're not being consistent with your reasoning.

Quote:
Originally Posted by malamute View Post
...It would be a bit far-fetched to think it's only 4% illegals when the birth rate indicates 8%. Or else what we've suspected is defintely true, illegals are coming here giving birth to get around the immigration laws.
It is quite realistic: The median age for whites (which still account for almost half of all U.S. births) is 41 years old. For Hispanics it is 27 years old. A population within prime childbearing years are going to have a higher birthrate. Hispanics (of any immigration status) are 46.7% of the New Mexico population, non-Hispanic whites are 40.2%.

Why did you dismiss the relationship data that Pew also distributes with their estimates? Illegal alien parents are more likely to have a relationship with someone having immigration status than another illegal alien. A birth is counted as such whether only one or both parents are illegal aliens.
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Old 03-01-2013, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Palo Alto
12,172 posts, read 6,699,365 times
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I did a little google work. The Mexican Consulate claims there are 80,000 Mexicans in NM.

They also issue illegal aliens licenses in NM. They claim to have issued 49,000 to Mexicans using the matricular card issued by the Mexican consulate. They have issued a total of 109,000 to non citizens.

A census report indicates 63% of migrants are from Mexico. Central and South America make up 28%, and other Asian and African counties the balance.

If we extrapolate, there are between 125k and 200k illegals in NM. Total population is 2 million. Between 1 in 15 to 1 in 10 are illegal. Sounds like California.
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Old 03-01-2013, 02:40 PM
 
Location: Jacurutu
5,302 posts, read 4,010,077 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapperJohn View Post
I did a little google work. The Mexican Consulate claims there are 80,000 Mexicans in NM.

They also issue illegal aliens licenses in NM. They claim to have issued 49,000 to Mexicans using the matricular card issued by the Mexican consulate. They have issued a total of 109,000 to non citizens.

A census report indicates 63% of migrants are from Mexico. Central and South America make up 28%, and other Asian and African counties the balance.

If we extrapolate, there are between 125k and 200k illegals in NM. Total population is 2 million. Between 1 in 15 to 1 in 10 are illegal. Sounds like California.
I do appreciate your research in helping me to guess the number of illegal aliens in my state (New Mexico), although I can add some additional considerations. Pew estimates 85,000 illegal aliens in New Mexico (realizing that not all illegal aliens are Mexicans), about 4.7% of the population, and accounting for 8% of the births. The Mexican Consulates (there is one in Albuquerque, and one in El Paso) are not defining immigration status for that 80,000 (a Matricula Consular card can also be issued to a Mexican National with immigration status in the United States), and there may be Mexican Nationals in the state they are not aware of (like my family, which has had no contact with a Mexican Consulate in the 5+ years they have been here).

In short, not all Mexican Nationals in my state are illegal aliens. My Mexican National wife was issued her current (8 year) New Mexico driver's license as a "non-immigrant" (she had no Social Security number under the K-3 visa she had at the time). My two older Mexican National stepchildren were issued licenses from showing their Social Security cards. No one in my family has naturalized, so despite their Legal Permanent Resident status they are "non-citizens" (but not illegal aliens).

As brought up previously, anything over 8% of the population as illegal aliens would also have them in a below-average birthrate. I welcome any further input you have, now that you are aware that the 80,000 number from the Mexican Consulate system does not mean those Mexicans are all illegal aliens, and that Mexican Nationals living in New Mexico can have immigration status. It's clearly time to start "extrapolating" from other statistics to estimate the number of illegal aliens in New Mexico.
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Old 03-02-2013, 03:37 PM
 
47,576 posts, read 58,699,632 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBMMuseum View Post
Did I just hear years of saying illegal aliens had extremely higher birthrates just get flushed away? Ten percent of a population having 8% of the births is a below-average birthrate. You're not being consistent with your reasoning.



It is quite realistic: The median age for whites (which still account for almost half of all U.S. births) is 41 years old. For Hispanics it is 27 years old. A population within prime childbearing years are going to have a higher birthrate. Hispanics (of any immigration status) are 46.7% of the New Mexico population, non-Hispanic whites are 40.2%.

Why did you dismiss the relationship data that Pew also distributes with their estimates? Illegal alien parents are more likely to have a relationship with someone having immigration status than another illegal alien. A birth is counted as such whether only one or both parents are illegal aliens.
No -- I'm being pretty correct. For one thing, most illegals are actually males. They have no birth rate.

That means the women illegals who are quite a bit fewer in total numbers are having very high birth rates.
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Old 03-02-2013, 03:42 PM
 
47,576 posts, read 58,699,632 times
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And since again, I have to help you with your research, I'll post a link:

http://www.robparal.com/downloads/im_women_summer06.pdf

On the other hand, since
1970 women have constituted a declining share of the U.S.
foreign-born population as a whole. This most likely is due
to the fact that the hundreds of thousands of undocumented
immigrants entering the country each year are predominantly
male,
although the numbers of undocumented women are
on the rise.
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Old 03-02-2013, 03:59 PM
 
47,576 posts, read 58,699,632 times
Reputation: 22158
Another interesting article:

http://www.pdx.edu/sites/www.pdx.edu...nforcement.pdf

While it is commonly believed that the undocumented are not represented in household Census data,
estimates using the residual method show that the number of immigrants enumerated in the Census is too
large for them all to be legal (Hanson 2006).6 In addition, recent estimates using Census data suggest
that 56 percent of the Mexican immigrant population is undocumented (Passel 2005). As the costs of legal
migration have also risen (longer wait times for permanent legal residence visas), more than half of the new
immigrants from Mexico are those adjusting from illegal status to permanent legal residence status (Hanson
2006). Therefore, even the legal immigrants represented in the Census may have entered the U.S. unlawfully.

Undocumented Immigrants: Facts and Figures

There are about 4.5 million undocumented men (18 and over) and 3.2 million undocumented women.

Undocumented women are less likely to be in the labor force (62 percent) than undocumented men or than women who are U.S. citizens. One reason is that proportionately more undocumented women are of childbearing age, and undocumented women are more likely than U.S. citizens to have children and remain in the home.
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