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Old 07-06-2014, 10:22 PM
 
1,279 posts, read 1,169,029 times
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If you read the comments on news articles, there is a clear pattern of a vast majority being strongly against amnesty. Furthermore, most want the illegals out, and a border fence up.

Considering Cantors loss to a political newb, I can't help but wonder if the next President of the US will be whomever is against amnesty, and for deportation and putting up a border fence.

The decades of illegal immigratio has vastly changed the cultural landscape of the US, even as far north as Washington state. The vast majority of people I know are outraged. I can't help but wonder if in 2016, the Political landscape will shift and result in a mass exodus of illegals.
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Old 07-06-2014, 10:37 PM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,765,127 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tac-Sea View Post
If you read the comments on news articles, there is a clear pattern of a vast majority being strongly against amnesty.
Comments on news articles is not scientific polling. Actual polls indicate that you're wrong and that's it's not as close as you'd like it to be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tac-Sea View Post
Furthermore, most want the illegals out, and a border fence up.
No they don't. Not only do most not want illegals out, most place blocking the border as less important than dealing with illegals already here (and most support a pathway to citizenship).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tac-Sea View Post
Considering Cantors loss to a political newb, I can't help but wonder if the next President of the US will be whomever is against amnesty, and for deportation and putting up a border fence.
Cantor, who took his renomination for granted, lost in a heavily Republican district that saw a turnout of 12%. I'm not sure why that's more meaningful than a few days later when pro-reform Graham won handily across the entire state of South Carolina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tac-Sea View Post
The decades of illegal immigratio has vastly changed the cultural landscape of the US, even as far north as Washington state. The vast majority of people I know are outraged. I can't help but wonder if in 2016, the Political landscape will shift and result in a mass exodus of illegals.
The vast majority of people you know don't appear to reflect the views of the majority of Americans. But to answer your original question, yes, illegal immigration will have an effect on the 2016 election, it's one of the reasons the GOP has no chance to win.
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Old 07-06-2014, 10:37 PM
 
Location: Palm Springs, CA
26,486 posts, read 24,217,574 times
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No way to know. We are more than two years away from the 2016 election.

On September 10, 2001, the biggest news story on TV was Connie Chung's interview with Gary Condit. Think about how the following day changed history.
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Old 07-06-2014, 10:51 PM
 
1,279 posts, read 1,169,029 times
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Did someone just say I'm wrong about American sentiment on illegal immigration? lol. You must be selectively ignorant about American sentiment on illegal immigration, because every poll out there shows the majority of Americans not only want illegals out, they want LEGAL immigration cut in half. Wow, so many illegal apologists on this board. And the comments on articles ARE valid, because they are a good representation of what people really feel rather than selecting the no radio button.

Americans Prefer Illegal Immigrants Head Home | Center for Immigration Studies


http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...half/?page=all

















Americans Prefer Illegal Immigrants Head Home

Results of a National Survey


By Steven A. CamarotaFebruary 2013






Results of a National Survey


Download a pdf of this Backgrounder
Steven A. Camarota is the Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies.



A new poll using neutral language — and avoiding the false choice of conditional legalization vs. mass deportations — finds that most Americans want illegal immigrants to return to their home counties, rather than be given legal status. The findings also show a very large gap in intensity, with those who want illegal immigrants to head home feeling much stronger about that option than those who would like to see illegal immigrants receive legal status.
  • Of likely voters, 52 percent responded that they preferred to see illegal immigrants in the United States go back to their home countries, compared to just 33 percent who would like them to be given legal status.
  • There is an enormous gap in intensity between the two views on immigration. Of those who want illegal immigrants to head home, 73 percent indicated that they felt “very strongly” about that view, while just 35 percent of those who want illegal immigrants to get legal status said they felt very strongly about this view.
  • One reason the public may prefer that illegals head home is a strong belief that efforts to enforce immigration laws have been inadequate — 64 percent said that enforcement of immigration laws has been “too little”, while just 10 percent said that it had been too much, and 15 percent said it was “just right”.
  • When asked why there is a large illegal population in the country, voters overwhelming (71 percent) thought it was because we had not made a real effort to enforce our immigration laws. Only 18 percent said it was because we were not letting in enough immigrants legally.
  • Another reason for skepticism about legalization is that most voters (69 percent) agreed with the statement that “giving legal status to illegal immigrants does not solve the problem because rewarding law breaking will only encourage more illegal immigration.” Just 26 percent disagreed.
  • When asked if they had confidence that immigration laws would be enforced in the event of a legalization, just 27 percent expressed confidence that there would be enforcement, while 70 percent indicated that they were not confident immigration law would be enforced.
  • Enforcement remains politically very popular. Of likely voters, 53 percent indicated that they would be more likely to support a political party that supports enforcing immigration laws vs. only 32 percent who said they would be more likely to support a party that supports legalization.
The poll was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research and is a national survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted January 23-24, 2013. The margin of error for questions is +/-3%. Question wording is provided in the table.


Click here for a larger image








Steven A. Camarota.lower-links{ width: 318px;}



The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit research organization founded in 1985. It is the nation's only think tank
devoted exclusively to research and policy analysis of the economic, social, demographic, fiscal, and other impacts of immigration on the United States.
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Old 07-06-2014, 10:58 PM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,765,127 times
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The Center for Immigration Studies is a right wing anti-immigrant group. Even the WSJ has come out against them and accused them of being set up by the anti-immigration Republicans to "give cover to Republicans who oppose immigration for other reasons"--Chris Cannon (R-UT) quoted in WSJ June 14th 2004


If you want to see actual polling by actual independent pollsters:


Immigration


Or you can cling to your fantasy and be shocked and surprised when the GOP gets crushed in 2016. Your choice.
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Old 07-06-2014, 11:17 PM
 
3,847 posts, read 3,160,344 times
Reputation: 2437
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tac-Sea View Post
If you read the comments on news articles, there is a clear pattern of a vast majority being strongly against amnesty. Furthermore, most want the illegals out, and a border fence up.

Considering Cantors loss to a political newb, I can't help but wonder if the next President of the US will be whomever is against amnesty, and for deportation and putting up a border fence.

The decades of illegal immigratio has vastly changed the cultural landscape of the US, even as far north as Washington state. The vast majority of people I know are outraged. I can't help but wonder if in 2016, the Political landscape will shift and result in a mass exodus of illegals.
Too early to tell, it depends on what's done from now until then.

It will affect mid-terms and that will hobble Obama's agenda.
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Old 07-07-2014, 03:22 AM
 
Location: The Great Outdoors
442 posts, read 662,130 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
(and most support a pathway to citizenship)
Lol.

Put it to a national vote.
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Old 07-07-2014, 06:48 AM
 
10,780 posts, read 5,079,209 times
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Team Obama and the Leftist Strategists are convinced that the Amnesty route is their only route to winning the 2014 and the 2016 elections.

Democratic strategists, however, say Obama needs to do something to rev up Latino voters who are disappointed his 2012 reelection has not yielded reform or slowed the pace of deportations.

“It would help with Latino voters and we’re in desperate need of higher turnout among Latino voters,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. “Right now they could say, ‘Nobody cares about us, nobody is doing anything for us — either party.”


The theory is that they must "rev up" the Hispanic Population to come out and vote - Blacks and kids don't vote as heavily in Mid-Term elections, so they need to motivate another part of their "base". I actually doubt this will work for several reasons - one is that illegal immigration costs the Taxpayers a LOT of money, second is the NIMBY attitude of even the Democratic supporters. A flood of Illegal Immigrants is fine for the Red States, but they don't want them in their own Backyard. Planes and Buses are bring them all across the USA to Cities and Towns that must figure out a way to deal with them.

Add to all that - the American people are getting more and more concerned about an Administration that creates it's only ideas of "Law". People don't Trust this President anymore - the secrecy that is surrounding this flood of illegals is not popular.
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Old 07-07-2014, 07:31 AM
 
20,611 posts, read 12,278,864 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
The Center for Immigration Studies is a right wing anti-immigrant group. Even the WSJ has come out against them and accused them of being set up by the anti-immigration Republicans to "give cover to Republicans who oppose immigration for other reasons"--Chris Cannon (R-UT) quoted in WSJ June 14th 2004


If you want to see actual polling by actual independent pollsters:


Immigration


Or you can cling to your fantasy and be shocked and surprised when the GOP gets crushed in 2016. Your choice.
Uh, a LOT can come down between 2014 and 2016. The Dems may get crushed by 2016 especially if Hillary gets in some real trouble before then.
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Old 07-07-2014, 07:34 AM
 
16,438 posts, read 18,513,116 times
Reputation: 9490
Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post



No they don't. Not only do most not want illegals out, most place blocking the border as less important than dealing with illegals already here (and most support a pathway to citizenship).



.
Are you posting from a LULAC office or something? No one I know agrees with what you claim. No one.
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