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Old 03-02-2008, 03:51 PM
 
Location: Mesa, Az
21,148 posts, read 36,611,035 times
Reputation: 3785

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Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
You know what you know...don't confuse you with facts?

Read the article. It goes into all the sources and background.

Thiry Five million is roughly the count of the foreign born in the US of A.
Including ilegal immigrants; many of whom are naturalized US citizens, 35 million people sounds about right.
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Old 03-03-2008, 01:20 AM
 
Location: Arizona
2,065 posts, read 3,173,411 times
Reputation: 391
It's a fact that the 2000 Census estimated between 8 and 11 million.

It's a fact that the Border Patrol conservatively estimates about 4 million a year getting past them.

It's a fact that USCIS estimates 1/2 million visa overstays every year.

Those are ALL facts, demonstrable and unimpeachable.

Add them up any way you want, the numbers are ALOT higher than you've been led to believe.
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Old 03-03-2008, 07:55 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,479,957 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyPinestra View Post
It's a fact that the 2000 Census estimated between 8 and 11 million.

It's a fact that the Border Patrol conservatively estimates about 4 million a year getting past them.

It's a fact that USCIS estimates 1/2 million visa overstays every year.

Those are ALL facts, demonstrable and unimpeachable.

Add them up any way you want, the numbers are ALOT higher than you've been led to believe.
They are not "facts". The 4 million is an approximation by Senator McCain with no known source. It was certainly a gross number and not net. The US Border Patrol apparently declines to make such an assessment. The highest current number with any credibility is 20 million which comes off a Bear Sterns assessment using secondary factors...school enrollment, remittances to Mexico etc.
The cited study is probably as good as it gets on the subject. The higher number are pretty much all from highly impeachable right wing sources.
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Arizona
2,065 posts, read 3,173,411 times
Reputation: 391
What deductions would you make to arrive at a 'net' figure? The estimated 200,000 a year that return on their own?

The Border Patrol has caught about 1 million illegal border crossers a year. They estimate a 'catch rate' of 20-25%.

The Bear Stearns estimate is 3 years old...

Next?
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:39 AM
 
Location: Missouri of course
407 posts, read 714,714 times
Reputation: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
The cited study is probably as good as it gets on the subject. The higher number are pretty much all from highly impeachable right wing sources.
Oh boo hoo!!! They are not impeachable sources at all. If they are then all of your pro-illegal sources are impeachable. Can't have one without the other. Choose which one you want, but we all know which side you are one.
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Old 03-03-2008, 08:58 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,479,957 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by EarthMother1951 View Post
Oh boo hoo!!! They are not impeachable sources at all. If they are then all of your pro-illegal sources are impeachable. Can't have one without the other. Choose which one you want, but we all know which side you are one.
You have no idea what I do or don't believe. When it comes to numbers I prefer truth regardless of any opinion I have as to desired social goals.

I would point out that the consensus estimate makes it highly improbable that anything other than amnesty will work long term. Raising the numbers to higher levels simply makes that more true. If it is practically impossible to deport 12 million what is the probability that you can do 35 million.

Most of the right wing analysis on the subject is of the "the government must be lying" sort. That is the sort of BS used by true believers who insist on their right to manipulate facts to align with their true belief.

It even extends to the hard core true believer arguing with your own analysts because they reached the wrong outcome.
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Old 03-03-2008, 09:43 AM
 
Location: Arizona
2,065 posts, read 3,173,411 times
Reputation: 391
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
You have no idea what I do or don't believe. When it comes to numbers I prefer truth regardless of any opinion I have as to desired social goals.
I don't believe I've posted anything that is false.

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
I would point out that the consensus estimate makes it highly improbable that anything other than amnesty will work long term. Raising the numbers to higher levels simply makes that more true. If it is practically impossible to deport 12 million what is the probability that you can do 35 million.
Attrition through enforcement is a long-term strategy. It's taken 20 years to get where we are, it'll take time to reverse that trend.

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Most of the right wing analysis on the subject is of the "the government must be lying" sort. That is the sort of BS used by true believers who insist on their right to manipulate facts to align with their true belief.
Funny thing is I've only used government estimates for my hypothesis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
It even extends to the hard core true believer arguing with your own analysts because they reached the wrong outcome.
I don't see anyone arguing here, unless it's you.
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Old 03-03-2008, 10:02 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 32,479,957 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyPinestra View Post
I don't believe I've posted anything that is false.
When there is uncertain truth nothing is "false". Just highly improbable. Numbers which fly in the face of virtually all sources are unlikely to be correct.

Quote:
Attrition through enforcement is a long-term strategy. It's taken 20 years to get where we are, it'll take time to reverse that trend.
It is a right wigh fairy tale. The liklihood is that the illegals will simply go from the taxed payrolls to the untaxed ones. Half the illegals are now believed to work off the books. This will simply push the percentage off the books up. That is bad for both the US and the illegal. The belief that any sizable number will return is supported by nothing other than wish. Wish deports few people. Even if an AZ cracks down and it works you will mostly distribute the illegals to other states.

Quote:
Funny thing is I've only used government estimates for my hypothesis.
No you have not. There is no government support for the number you have suggested.
Quote:
I don't see anyone arguing here, unless it's you.
Truth seeking is often lonely. Particularly when the true believers are around.
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Old 03-03-2008, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Arizona
2,065 posts, read 3,173,411 times
Reputation: 391
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
When there is uncertain truth nothing is "false". Just highly improbable. Numbers which fly in the face of virtually all sources are unlikely to be correct.
So tell me which numbers I've cited are incorrect.



Quote:
It is a right wigh fairy tale. The liklihood is that the illegals will simply go from the taxed payrolls to the untaxed ones. Half the illegals are now believed to work off the books. This will simply push the percentage off the books up. That is bad for both the US and the illegal. The belief that any sizable number will return is supported by nothing other than wish. Wish deports few people. Even if an AZ cracks down and it works you will mostly distribute the illegals to other states.
How many legitimate companies do you think there are that can hide payroll? I believe the IRS is attempting to deal with those that do. States have also enacted measures to make it less tempting to not report payroll. Many illegals interviewed in Arizona have said they are going home, not to other states. Those who are going to other states are finding the welcome mat rolled up. It's up to the states to do this as the Feds have dropped the ball AGAIN.

Quote:
No you have not. There is no government support for the number you have suggested.
So the Census Bureau, the Border Patrol and Citizenship and Immigration Services AREN'T government agencies?

Quote:
Truth seeking is often lonely. Particularly when the true believers are around.
The same can be said of DIS-believers, too.
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Old 03-03-2008, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Pinal County, Arizona
25,107 posts, read 34,357,433 times
Reputation: 4893
There are no accurate numbers for illegal immigrants in the United States. It is also important to remember that not all illegal immigrants come from south of our borders either. Many come from India, China, Thailand, and the former eastern bloc nations.

The estimate of 20 million is the one I see most often used and, from my studying of the topic, that I feel comfortable with.

It should also be noted that recently (the last 6 months or so), there are reports of many illegals, going BACK to their countries of origin - most notably Mexico and farther south.
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