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Old 02-04-2010, 09:56 AM
 
313 posts, read 295,172 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArizonaBear View Post
A ca. 40% drop in illegals (here in Arizona) is quite significant, trust me.
You don't have much to brag about. While Arpaio is raiding official buildings and harassing workers and American citizens, the Arizona border is in chaos compared to California. All that boasting for votes in your conservative state just hides the fact that it's a total "basketcase" in it's handling of border enforcement.
And I'm not talking about undocumented immigrants coming here to work...I'm talking about the free-for-all for the cartels going on over there.
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Old 02-04-2010, 10:22 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArizonaBear View Post
A ca. 40% drop in illegals (here in Arizona) is quite significant, trust me.
It was by 33%, numerically that was 191,000 people. While large, it does coincide with other drops (notably CA, where border arrests dropped by 25%, meaning less people are coming...not to mention the illegal immigration drop). Also, it's interesting since in some communities in AZ, direly needed tax revenue is sorely missed (your economy isn't really that strong out there). So, in AZ, stricter enforcement meant more resources devoted to driving out the tax base of poorer communities that already had population drops due to a sluggish economy.
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Old 02-04-2010, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Maryland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by that1guy View Post
We saw what happened with mass deportations, hence why we don't do that anymore.
We also saw what happened after the 1986 amnesty; hence, why we won’t do that anymore.
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Old 02-04-2010, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Maryland
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Originally Posted by that1guy View Post
No, since there is a little something called the black market. As long as there is more money here, wiling workers, and a need for cheap labor...there will be illegal immigrants. Just this time, more will be working in the informal sector.

Some say that what is happening in Arizona and OK are simply the same trends as in the rest of the nation. That due to the current recession there was a minor decrease in the rate of increase of illegal immigrants.
Illegals are fleeing areas where our laws are being enforced. Very few have left due to the recession. In my area, they left Prince William County, VA because it was no longer hospitable. They did not return to Mexico or Guatemala, they moved to Maryland and DC. Now, MD is beginning to crack down on illegals, so they will eventually move to other East Coast states.

For now, they are moving to other U.S. locations. However, if our laws are enforced nationwide, they will have very few employment options. They remain here because they CAN, and they are hoping for amnesty. Once they realize there will be no amnesty and they are unable to find work, with a few exceptions, they WILL leave. They will have no choice.
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Old 02-04-2010, 10:56 AM
 
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Illegals are fleeing areas where our laws are being enforced. Very few have left due to the recession. In my area, they left Prince William County, VA because it was no longer hospitable. They did not return to Mexico or Guatemala, they moved to Maryland and DC. Now, MD is beginning to crack down on illegals, so they will eventually move to other East Coast states.

Is that why less illegal immigrants have come? Is that why communities across the nation have drops? It's due to the reccession. There is a larger percentage of male illegal immigrants that come here to work and send support back to families. Thus, this population leaves, only to return once the economy picks up again. Some do move to other states, while some leave the country entirely (as evidenced by the slight decrease in population on a national level). Again, the segment of illegal immigrants that would move back home would be those (typically) males that support their family back in their country of origin. Those that have their families here, are less likely to move back...or even move in general. (NPR did a great story on this. Terry Gross rocks!).

For now, they are moving to other U.S. locations. However, if our laws are enforced nationwide, they will have very few employment options. They remain here because they CAN, and they are hoping for amnesty. Once they realize there will be no amnesty and they are unable to find work, with a few exceptions, they WILL leave. They will have no choice.

See above.
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Old 02-04-2010, 10:58 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benicar View Post
We also saw what happened after the 1986 amnesty; hence, why we won’t do that anymore.
Well, after the 1980s, the 1990s and early 2000s were horrible periods in our national history. You know, with the rise in incomes, the longest expansion of our economy in our nation's history, the continuously lower crime rates...
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Old 02-04-2010, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Maryland
15,179 posts, read 15,813,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by that1guy View Post
Illegals are fleeing areas where our laws are being enforced. Very few have left due to the recession. In my area, they left Prince William County, VA because it was no longer hospitable. They did not return to Mexico or Guatemala, they moved to Maryland and DC. Now, MD is beginning to crack down on illegals, so they will eventually move to other East Coast states.

Is that why less illegal immigrants have come? Is that why communities across the nation have drops? It's due to the reccession. There is a larger percentage of male illegal immigrants that come here to work and send support back to families. Thus, this population leaves, only to return once the economy picks up again. Some do move to other states, while some leave the country entirely (as evidenced by the slight decrease in population on a national level). Again, the segment of illegal immigrants that would move back home would be those (typically) males that support their family back in their country of origin. Those that have their families here, are less likely to move back...or even move in general. (NPR did a great story on this. Terry Gross rocks!).

See above.
Not according to this. They won't leave until we force them.

Quote:
The flow of immigrants from Mexico to the United States has declined sharply since mid-decade, but there is no evidence of an increase in Mexican-born migrants returning home from the U.S.

Survey data from the U.S. and Mexico reveal a large flow of migrants back to Mexico, but the size of the return flow appears to be stable since 2006. As for immigration to the U.S. from Mexico, surveys from both countries attest to recent substantial decreases in the number of new arrivals, reinforced by U.S. Border Patrol data showing markedly reduced apprehensions of Mexicans trying to cross into the United States illegally.
Research on Immigration - Pew Hispanic Center

Quote:
Instead, the institute found that even in the toughest economic times, illegal immigrants are likely to search for lower-paying work, then move within the U.S. to find other work, before considering a return home. Economic conditions in their native countries compared with those inside the U.S. also weigh more heavily in decisions about whether to return, the study's lead author, Dimitrios Papademetriou, said.
Illegal Immigrants Stay in U.S. Despite Recession - WSJ.com

Quote:
Although the U.S. economy's nosedive has probably contributed to a substantial drop in the number of illegal immigrants coming into the United States, those already here will be less motivated to return home, according to a report released yesterday.

Among other reasons, the report cited illegal immigrants' family and job ties to this country, the difficulty they would face trying to reenter the United States after its economy improves, the comparatively weaker state of their countries' economies and the strengthening U.S. dollar.
Recession Unlikely to Drive Away Illegal Immigrants, Report Finds - washingtonpost.com
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Old 02-04-2010, 11:16 AM
 
Location: Maryland
15,179 posts, read 15,813,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by that1guy View Post
Well, after the 1980s, the 1990s and early 2000s were horrible periods in our national history. You know, with the rise in incomes, the longest expansion of our economy in our nation's history, the continuously lower crime rates...
Irrelevant. We will not grant another amnesty, because we would have the same, if not worse, results. . . . massive illegal immigration. Only, instead of 12-20 million, we would have 40-80 million illegals DEMANDING "immigration reform." No thank you.
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Old 02-04-2010, 11:32 AM
 
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"'There are always lots of people going back. It's just part of the normal turnover, particularly of Mexican immigrants. And nobody looks for it in regular times,' said Jeffrey Passel, a Pew Hispanic Center senior demographer.

Passel did a study that showed 11.9 million immigrants last year, compared to 12.4 million in 2007. He cautioned that the margin of error was too large to make any conclusive finding.

He did say that there are fewer unauthorized immigrants entering the U.S., which coincides with a study the Department of Homeland Security released earlier this month."

Carcamo, Cindy. "More Mexican Immigrants Returning Home."
Orange County Register 6 Mar. 2009.

The bolded statement highlights the reality. Since, as per your sources, there is also a lot of seasonal an annual variablity (due to the nature of work that many decide to go into) my premise may be wrong as well as your premise. It could be that there are other variables beside just the economic downturn and enforcement. I strongly feel that job growth is a factor. Since, even during the Great Depression with operation W-Back, illegal immgirants still came northward since conditions were worse in Mexico (less jobs there). I guess also, the current economic state of Mexico isn't that great. So, some food for thought.
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Old 02-04-2010, 11:33 AM
 
3,536 posts, read 5,077,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benicar View Post
Irrelevant. We will not grant another amnesty, because we would have the same, if not worse, results. . . . massive illegal immigration. Only, instead of 12-20 million, we would have 40-80 million illegals DEMANDING "immigration reform." No thank you.
VERY relevant. HIGHLY relevant. Doesn't get any more relevant. Your claim is that we were WORSE off after amnesty. Thus, I showed that immediately after we were BETTER off. Notice I didn't state that amnesty made us better off...simply stated that we weren't worse off.
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