Illinois's most conservative counties (Chicago, Decatur: 2014, universities, camp)

[viktor77]

I recently moved to Champaign County, which is a relatively liberal county that went blue in 2008 and 2012, not surprising, it's a college town. What has intrigued me is that some of Illinois's most conservative counties surround Champaign County. These are Ford, Iroquois, and Douglas counties. While the majority of downstate Illinois is pink or reddish, these counties are solidly red (at least in presidential election data which is usually a good indicator, especially given the Perfect Storm of 2008). So what is going on here? Why are these counties so red compared to neighboring counties? Piatt is redder, Vermilion and Mclean appear to be pink.*

The only counties I can find that can give these counties a run for their money are Effingham, Clay, and Wayne (Wayne and Effingham appear to be the most conservative in the state, and I know Effingham has a heavy Evangelical population that probably accounts for their strength here). The 2012 data reveals counties going as red as these all over downstate Illinois, but I prefer to focus on the 2008 data because it shows us where real conservatives lie, as Obama far and wide had the upper hand in that election.

There must be more going on here than the rural factor, because downstate Illinois has a lot of rural farmland and rural counties that don't go nearly as red as these counties did [in 2008]. What is going on here?

Since I am asking this question, I'd also like to know if anyone can explain why McCain in the 2008 primary took massive chunks of Clinton and Washington counties while everything around it went starkly opposite? These counties also (especially Clinton) showed some of Huckabee's weakest downstate results. Huckabee represents a more socially conservative candidate, thus could it be inferred that at least Clinton county is not a very socially conservative county even though it is still Republican throughout? If so, what would explain this?

*A side note, Ford county is solidly in Huckabee's socially conservative camp while Iroquois county bucks the trend, turning out few results for Huckabee and heavily favouring McCain.

[chet everett]

You are probably spending too much time thinking about things that are not really easy to categorize. The various trends of which issues motivate individual voters sometimes matter less than the "bulk" of votes that can be captured with broader themes.

Maybe the effectiveness of NRA or some agricultural group was effective in getting out voters but if there are only a few hundred voters in that county va the thousands of kids motivated to vote for "hope & change"...

[linicx]

FWIW I find most college towns tend to be a bit more liberal as the college population is more global. IL is an AG state. Most farm communities are solidly conservative. Larger towns are a mix. It really makes little difference as Cook County and Chicago have a combined population hat is more than double the population of the balance of the state. Cook and Chicago elect the governor and dominate the state legislature.

Welcome to Illinois politics.

[Maintainschaos]

I think it is too naive to determine whether a county is conservative or liberal based on ballots cast in one or two presidential elections.

[Maintainschaos]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Maybe the effectiveness of NRA or some agricultural group was effective in getting out voters but if there are only a few hundred voters in that county va the thousands of kids motivated to vote for "hope & change"...

Funny that if the NRA or an ag group gets people out, those U.S. citizens are classified as "voters," whereas in the reverse, those U.S. citizens are classified as "kids."

[chet everett]

Sheesh, is there really any doubt that majority of VOTERS in Chambana are college students that may be elligible to vote for the first time? I doubt any of them are on the "robocall" lists of any partcular advocacy group...

In contrast there is also little doubt that the "poltical action committees" that do cross reference NRA members and folks that sign up for agricultural groups (and in more urban areas those on the other side that suppport "health issues" or "immigration reform" or whatever) are a big factor in certain kinds of elections.


Btw -- Survey: Students Faith in National Leaders Nosedives

[Maintainschaos]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Sheesh, is there really any doubt that majority of VOTERS in Chambana are college students that may be elligible to vote for the first time? I doubt any of them are on the "robocall" lists of any partcular advocacy group...

In contrast there is also little doubt that the "poltical action committees" that do cross reference NRA members and folks that sign up for agricultural groups (and in more urban areas those on the other side that suppport "health issues" or "immigration reform" or whatever) are a big factor in certain kinds of elections.


Btw -- Survey: Students Faith in National Leaders Nosedives

I think you're neglecting all the faculty, staff, and general population that live in the Champaign area that aren't students and aren't kids. The 200,000+ people in the area are not even half students.

[linicx]

Do we actually know how many of the U.S. students at UIUC actually vote in national elections?

In the Fall of 2013 there was a total of registered students (43,400) in a city with an estimated population of 83,424 in 2013. Urbana population is smaller at 41,752.

UIUC students equal about 1/3 of the total Urbana and Champaign combined population (cities only) in 2013.

The population count does not include any of the many UIUC teaching faculty. For this exercise only I assume the teachers who are Illinois residents vote in the same place where they are registered.

[viktor77]

Originally Posted by chet everett

You are probably spending too much time thinking about things that are not really easy to categorize. The various trends of which issues motivate individual voters sometimes matter less than the "bulk" of votes that can be captured with broader themes.

Maybe the effectiveness of NRA or some agricultural group was effective in getting out voters but if there are only a few hundred voters in that county va the thousands of kids motivated to vote for "hope & change"...

I thought this might be a likely outcome, that these were more flukes, or just the result of various insignificant data that can't really be used to characterize an entire county. I still find it interesting that certain counties go far redder than others, but it may not be that significant. The 2012 vote shows a much more solidly red downstate Illinois where the 2008 vote is pink dotted with red.

I do though think that Champaign's tendency to go blue isn't 100% a result of their student population. Yes, it's a factor, but faculty who work at large universities tend to be more liberal minded. The more academic you become the more liberal you become, generally speaking. Also Champaign has some factories, that is also a factor. The faculty in fact might not always live in Champaign, and they may be commuting from Monticello, Bloomington, Decatur, and so on, causing those cities to move towards pinker.

[holl1ngsworth]

Originally Posted by linicx

FWIW I find most college towns tend to be a bit more liberal as the college population is more global. IL is an AG state. Most farm communities are solidly conservative. Larger towns are a mix. It really makes little difference as Cook County and Chicago have a combined population hat is more than double the population of the balance of the state. Cook and Chicago elect the governor and dominate the state legislature.

What?!?

12,880,000 people in Illinois -
5,231,000 people in Cook and Chicago, combined =
7,649,000 people in Illinois outside of Cook and Chicago

There are 1.5x more people outside of Cook and Chicago.