Turnaround in RV economy (Elkhart, Hope: credit, prices, business)

[cdr18]

Are things starting to turn around for the RV industry? I have heard of numerous RV companies that are adding jobs as fast as they laid them off.

Keystone RV - 500 workers
Jayco RV - 200 workers
Dutchmen - 50 workers
Cozy Traveler - 75 workers
Livin Lite - 200 workers
Prime Time RV - 200 workers
Monaco RV - Started up production again in Wakarusa
Crossroads RV - 125 workers

I am not sure of anymore but at this rate, Elkhart's economy is going to be back on its feet again. However, the only problem I have is that with such a heavy concentration in the RV industry, that when the economy turns south again, there go all the workers. Hopefully we won't have to worry about that, but it is almost inevitable.

These are all in Elkhart County and one in LaGrange county.

[Midpack]

You can find encouraging projections, and others less so. I am in a business that supplies the RV industry, marine and many others. Our official expectation is that RV and marine will be among the last to recover due to
a) RV's and boats are almost purely discretionary consumer spending,
b) conspicuous consumption has become less fashionable (to what extent remains to be seen),
c) much more stringent credit,
d) many people de-leveraging from excessive debt, it's going to take years for some folks,
e) inevitably significantly higher fuel prices --- hopefully people finally see the writing on the wall even though prices will still flucuate and be low at times, the long term trend is up more than inflation due to supply-demand.

While most industries we supply are expected to recover substantially by 2012, RV and marine are projected to level out at about 50% of their pre-recession volumes and grow modestly from there. It will be a long, long time, if ever, that either industry will reach former highs.

FWIW...