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Old 01-25-2018, 06:16 AM
 
Location: Englewood, Near Eastside Indy
8,262 posts, read 13,546,695 times
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Oddsmankers set their odds based on public perception and what will generate a bet. It is not surprising oddsmakers would set Indy as a longer shot than other cities.
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Old 01-25-2018, 07:49 AM
 
987 posts, read 399,273 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ruascott View Post
It's the first step in a regional transit plan. You can find the whole plan easily online, if you care to.

These systems take decades to build out....but you have to start somewhere. That's all this is, a starting point. It will have to prove viabilty before the surrounding counties fund expansions into the true suburbs. Again, likely a decade or more for that
Agreed, and that was my point, wrt Amazon's desires/expectations. Is an existing or almost-finished and currently fully functioning transit system a requirement, or is "we've got it started, will be completed in 10-20 years" good enough. Or will this suddenly become something that has to be implemented ASAP on a much more aggressive timeline.

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Originally Posted by Dyadic View Post
The House panel voted to reverse the metropolitan area ban on light rail. Indy is rapidly moving in the right direction.
Money talks. Rumor has it this is also why the hate crimes bill is suddenly making all sorts of progress.
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Old 01-25-2018, 10:51 AM
 
1,641 posts, read 600,869 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toxic Toast View Post
Oddsmankers set their odds based on public perception and what will generate a bet. It is not surprising oddsmakers would set Indy as a longer shot than other cities.
Oddsmakers are by far the most accurate way to predict probabilities. The odds are overwhelmingly set by fact based analysis. Public perception might only account for 1% of a spread.

Last edited by Berteau; 01-25-2018 at 11:26 AM..
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Englewood, Near Eastside Indy
8,262 posts, read 13,546,695 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Berteau View Post
Oddsmakers are by far the most accurate way to predict probabilities. The odds are overwhelmingly set by fact based analysis. Public perception might only account for 1% of a spread.
What The Betting Odds on Amazon HQ2 Really Tell Us

All of this is interesting, but it’s important to note that betting websites aren’t exactly prediction markets. “We don’t know anything that you or your readers don’t,” says Paddy Power spokesperson Lee Price. “They shouldn’t think that because Austin is on top of the betting odds, we know anything they don’t."

“We haven’t got inside information, sadly,” Price says. “Our traders are all magical mathematicians who sit in a room and crunch numbers, based on what’s on the news, and logic, rather than inside information.” Oddsmakers do have one piece of information that people who just have a Google Alert for HQ2 set up don’t: the betting patterns themselves. The odds adjust as bets are placed. There are a couple of reasons for that. If there’s a sudden rush of action on a city with low odds—say, Dallas, at 20:1—the bookie runs the risk of losing money if they have to pay out $20 for every $1 bet on a hot ticket. Additionally, the places those bets are coming from could indicate that the people placing them might know something that the traders don’t.


Gamblers are betting against a Donald Trump White House

But just like in sports gambling, the odds reflect wagers being made by real gamblers. That suggests people are putting their money on the line to bet on someone they believe will win the nomination.

Jeb Bush is actually the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, according to Irish gambling website Paddy Power.

Last edited by Toxic Toast; 01-25-2018 at 12:17 PM..
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:13 PM
 
1,641 posts, read 600,869 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toxic Toast View Post
What The Betting Odds on Amazon HQ2 Really Tell Us

All of this is interesting, but it’s important to note that betting websites aren’t exactly prediction markets. “We don’t know anything that you or your readers don’t,” says Paddy Power spokesperson Lee Price. “They shouldn’t think that because Austin is on top of the betting odds, we know anything they don’t."

“We haven’t got inside information, sadly,” Price says. “Our traders are all magical mathematicians who sit in a room and crunch numbers, based on what’s on the news, and logic, rather than inside information.” Oddsmakers do have one piece of information that people who just have a Google Alert for HQ2 set up don’t: the betting patterns themselves. The odds adjust as bets are placed. There are a couple of reasons for that. If there’s a sudden rush of action on a city with low odds—say, Dallas, at 20:1—the bookie runs the risk of losing money if they have to pay out $20 for every $1 bet on a hot ticket. Additionally, the places those bets are coming from could indicate that the people placing them might know something that the traders don’t.
Right. As I said, they aren’t exact, but are the most accurate option. These bets being placed or not placed on Indy could move it either way, and definitely wouldn’t move it from last to first. Most experts agree that Indy is not really in the running either. It is likely to go to the east coast or Austin.

Last edited by Berteau; 01-25-2018 at 12:28 PM..
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Englewood, Near Eastside Indy
8,262 posts, read 13,546,695 times
Reputation: 5812
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berteau View Post
Right. As I said, they arenít exact, but are the most accurate option. These bets being placed or not placed on Indy could move it either way, and definitely wouldnít move it from last to first. Most experts agree that Indy is not really in the running either. It is likely to go to the east coast or Austin.
The most accurate option is being a decision maker with Amazon, everything else means nothing.
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Old 01-25-2018, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Englewood, Near Eastside Indy
8,262 posts, read 13,546,695 times
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More positive press about Indianapolis regarding the HQ2 sweepstakes. Like I said earlier, Indy has already won just by being in the top 20.

Is Indianapolis Cool Enough for Amazon? It Just Might Be
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Old 01-25-2018, 01:54 PM
 
1,480 posts, read 1,290,402 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IndyDancer View Post
Agreed, and that was my point, wrt Amazon's desires/expectations. Is an existing or almost-finished and currently fully functioning transit system a requirement, or is "we've got it started, will be completed in 10-20 years" good enough. Or will this suddenly become something that has to be implemented ASAP on a much more aggressive timeline.



Money talks. Rumor has it this is also why the hate crimes bill is suddenly making all sorts of progress.
The sole purpose of my post was a reply your post. You admitted you were unaware of Indy's public transportation plans.
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Old 01-25-2018, 02:39 PM
 
1,641 posts, read 600,869 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyadic View Post
The sole purpose of my post was a reply your post. You admitted you were unaware of Indy's public transportation plans.
Indys public transportation plans consist of another bus route.
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Old 01-25-2018, 02:40 PM
 
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
135 posts, read 120,634 times
Reputation: 211
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berteau View Post
Slapping a name on a building means nothing. It is as you said, only slapping a name on a building. Chase had its name on the building, despite being headquartered in NYC. Additionally, 95% of the country hasnít heard of sales force. Itís not a big deal. When comparing to other cities itís a negative compared to better companies they have. Like I said, the only people who are defending Indy are people who live in Indy. No other major city sees Indy as a great city or having a chance with Amazon.
What world do you live in where 95% of people haven't at least heard of Salesforce? Honest question; Have you been employed in the last decade or so? Also, what does the second bolded section even mean? Like literally, what does that mean? How is having Salesforce's largest hub outside of San Francisco (slightly more than just "slapping a name on a building") in your city a negative in any possible way? Are you trying to say that other cities have stronger/better companies than Salesforce located in them? If so, astute observation man...really glad you chimed in with that thought.

And before you accuse me of being a rabid homer or something, no, I don't think Indy has a particularly great shot at landing HQ2. But I also don't think it's quite as outlandish as you're making it seem (and the number of articles and studies backing me up on that assertion just keep coming out). And I can't fathom why you - a resident of some other city - would be so butthurt about it merely being included on a top 20 list. Did your city get left off, or are you one of those Chicago people who just has to remind people that they're the alpha? Why does this matter so much to you? And don't say it doesn't, because you've posted on this thread more in the last couple of days than I have posted on this entire site in the last year (which brings me back to my second question to you).

By your own admission, you feel that Indy's inclusion is largely the byproduct of some marketing stunt intended to engender goodwill from Middle America (because I'm sure Jeff Bezos is real concerned about that). That being the case, why waste your time arguing with a bunch of delusional homers who have [U]clearly[/u] never stepped foot outside of Indy in their entire lives, and who couldn't possibly understand what odds Indy is facing when measured against "real" cities like Columbus, Raleigh and Suburban D.C.? I'm always down for a discussion on whatever, but this seems weirdly personal for you.
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