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Metals have far outperformed the stock market the last 10 years, so they certainly have a time and place to be invested in... they didn't really get attention until the easy money was already made and it's silly that people still put down gold and silver considering they have FAR OUTPERFORMED the broad market the last decade. I don't believe now is necessarily the time to invest in them though. More downside may be possible, especially if we have an economic deflationary sort of scenario which I believe is still possible. If signs of major inflation start to appear, then I'd go into them using the ticker symbol CEF or if you prefer, physical silver.
Platinum and palladium though fairly priced right now should the price come down, could be good investment. Catalytic converters aren't going away any time soon. Rhodium is a potential good speculative investment using a kitco pool account at these prices, though it could go lower. Due to demand it's possible to buy physical rhodium now, something that could not be easily done just 5 years ago. Palladium actually has a cup and handle formation on a longer term chart that suggests it could break above 800 to new all time highs. It's also in a supply deficit more severe than any of the other precious metals. If I was going to invest in a precious metal during an economic recovery, it would be palladium. It could one day be near a 1:1 price ratio with platinum
Russian palladium stockpiles have kept the price artificially low in the past. These stockpiles are gone, while demand continues to increase. However, platinum makes for a better catalyst in catalytic converters, so I'm skeptical the price of palladium could ever approach platinum. Should it do so, I'd swap out my holdings for platinum. Something not often considered is platinum is a far more dense metal, meaning you get far less 'surface area' of metal for the same ounce of weight. I'm not sure what affect this would have... perhaps palladium could still be more affordable at a higher price due to this?
Either way, both these metals are far more rare than gold from any practical standpoint. Gold however has a color to it that is just.. beautiful.. and unlike other metals. It will always be seen as a 'store of wealth' ...
This thread has just given me a new idea of where to put some of my 401K holdings.. into a palladium ETF. After doing more research I believe platinum may be the better bargain at current June 1 2013 prices.
He thinks gold could go down "enough to scare people, and scare people out of their positions". I think if it got to $1,100-1,200, that'd scare a lot of people. (Who bought it at $1,800-1,900).
One of the metals, maybe palladium had a huge speculative blow off top in 1996? 2000? It went up to like $1,000 from 300. Then right back down.
I got a piece of junk mail the other day, touting a brazilian diamond mine company, lol. It was .59 cents, just came public a few months ago. They are suppose to have $2.00 earnings per share in a few years, lol. Multiplied by 18, its going to be a $36 stock. I think diamond demand has done well.....but I dont know nearly enough to invest in it.
diamonds are a monopoly controlled by de beers, or at least that's what one of my high school science teachers told me way back 15 years ago... that they have no inherit value other than what good marketing has given them. They are not scarce and are bought for sentimental reasons.
On the other hand, palladium (and platinum, rhodium) have real supply issues and demand that in the case of palladium comes from making catalytic converters, and platinum, catalytic converters and jewelry.
diamonds are a monopoly controlled by de beers, or at least that's what one of my high school science teachers told me way back 15 years ago... that they have no inherit value other than what good marketing has given them. They are not scarce and are bought for sentimental reasons.
On the other hand, palladium (and platinum, rhodium) have real supply issues and demand that in the case of palladium comes from making catalytic converters, and platinum, catalytic converters and jewelry.
I feel the same way about gold and silver. Its only value is what someone will pay me for it. Its used a small amount in manufacturing but its not of any real value. I do not see silver going up to 40 an oz any time soon. Not unless the economy tanks back to 08-09 levels. It pays not dividend and your hope is as an end of the world hedge.
I sold all my silver but for about 10ozs for almost 50 and oz. I would not look at silver until the 8 dollar range.
He thinks gold could go down "enough to scare people, and scare people out of their positions". I think if it got to $1,100-1,200, that'd scare a lot of people. (Who bought it at $1,800-1,900).
One of the metals, maybe palladium had a huge speculative blow off top in 1996? 2000? It went up to like $1,000 from 300. Then right back down.
I got a piece of junk mail the other day, touting a brazilian diamond mine company, lol. It was .59 cents, just came public a few months ago. They are suppose to have $2.00 earnings per share in a few years, lol. Multiplied by 18, its going to be a $36 stock. I think diamond demand has done well.....but I dont know nearly enough to invest in it.
jim rogers is a smart man but he,s not a good man to take advice from for the simple reason he doesn't speak his true feelings in public , at least he hasn't this past three years , if you had heeded rogers this past few years , you would have poured into metals and dumped stocks , thus loosing a fortune
hes a peculiar man , I seriously doubt he followed his own advice
jim rogers is a smart man but he,s not a good man to take advice from for the simple reason he doesn't speak his true feelings in public , at least he hasn't this past three years , if you had heeded rogers this past few years , you would have poured into metals and dumped stocks , thus loosing a fortune
hes a peculiar man , I seriously doubt he followed his own advice
I think he has a great track record, at least for any financial guru.
-He admits that he's a terrible short term trader. I think his skill is picking long term macro trends. He started a commodity fund in 1998, its up I think 300-350%. The S&P since then is up 30-40% (even after this latest run up).
-He's been bullish on China for 10-15 years. Actually much longer since the 80's.
-He's a long term bear on the dollar.
I think one reason why he's worth listening to....he admits what he doesn't know. Very rare on Wall Street. He doesn't get overly attached to gold, silver, US stocks, etc. There are some good books about him (his own, Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist). Also, money masters of our time. A few others. He thinks in 10-20 year cycles, or longer.
It is quit informative thread about investing . I appreciate when I see well written material. Your time isn't going to waste with your posts. Thanks so much and stick with it No doubt you will definitely reach your goals! have a great day!
I feel the same way about gold and silver. Its only value is what someone will pay me for it. Its used a small amount in manufacturing but its not of any real value. I do not see silver going up to 40 an oz any time soon. Not unless the economy tanks back to 08-09 levels. It pays not dividend and your hope is as an end of the world hedge.
I sold all my silver but for about 10ozs for almost 50 and oz. I would not look at silver until the 8 dollar range.
after 5000 years of acceptance as a store of value i don't think you have to worry about the inherant value sticking around for gold .
in fact an ounce of gold still buys a quality mans suit and a good pair of shoes , just the same as it did in the 1800's.
I think a lot of people look at gold with the wrong investing glasses on.
Let's get some facts straight.
- ALL PAPER MONEY HAS FAILED IN THE HISTORY OF MAN KIND.
- Our USD dollar has lost over 95% of its value.
- How can one invest valuing things in dollars?? They can't, so don't price gold in dollars.
- Investing is about increasing the purchasing power of one. THIS IS THE ONLY GOAL OF THE INVESTOR. To INCREASE purchasing power.
Gold is ONLY a barameter of how much money is in circulation. If gold goes down, all other asset classes will follow. Gold does not lose value over long periods of time, they simply go from undervalued to overvalued against is each. This is the supply/demand relationship that moves them.
Our system of fiat currency is a joke. It makes us all slaves. Real money, gold, is one where you can escape the tax system and not speculate. There are times where gold increases its purchasing power against other items mined from the earth and that time is now.
I don't want to own silver. I just want to bet on my feeling that silver will resurface above 40 within six months.
I have a Scotttrade account. Too tired to see if they offer that option tonight.
It better get hopping, then. It was 23.66 on 5/10 when JohnH said that. Now (6/12) it is at 21.81.
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