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Old 10-27-2011, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,091 posts, read 10,492,546 times
Reputation: 4104

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I love how doomers go crazy predicting the economic apcolypse when the DJA drops 150 points, 300 points, or even 500 points...and it's the beginning of the end. In less then a month the DJA has gained 1,500+ points (from 10,655 on October 2nd to 12,181 part way through today) and suddenly this indicator is no longer important if it doesn't match their preconceived views of the end any day now

How come these changes in the DJA are only important when it goes down and not up?
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Old 10-27-2011, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,022 posts, read 16,959,064 times
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I agree. There's a lot of selectivity at work. What gets me about many doomers is their smug certainty that they are right. They don't say, "Here are some data that are troubling" but they say, "How are you planning for the collapse?" as if it's axiomatic that there will be a collapse. And they call people who disagree with them "sheeple". Many of them scoff at any government statistics, such as the various consumer price index measurments put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but they do not provide any proof that the measurments are fudged. It's sort of like religious faith - rationality has nothing to do with it. It's a belief system, so arguments to the contrary just don't count in the least.
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Old 10-27-2011, 06:39 PM
 
3,337 posts, read 2,483,872 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by subsound View Post
I love how doomers go crazy predicting the economic apcolypse when the DJA drops 150 points, 300 points, or even 500 points...and it's the beginning of the end. In less then a month the DJA has gained 1,500+ points (from 10,655 on October 2nd to 12,181 part way through today) and suddenly this indicator is no longer important if it doesn't match their preconceived views of the end any day now

How come these changes in the DJA are only important when it goes down and not up?
The Dow is not the barometer of the overall economic health.

It is beyond schizophrenic at this point. Any true investor realizes the roller coaster.

You call me doomsday, but i called the Dow at 12,000 before the end of October on another thread.

It proves my insider trading knowledge, and how the day gamblers get all hot and bothered when their favorite past time is called for what it is.

Wall street is no longer an investment vehicle.

It is a gambling mecca. For the addicted users.

You don't have anything but luck on your side.
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Old 10-27-2011, 06:41 PM
 
3,337 posts, read 2,483,872 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by subsound View Post
I love how doomers go crazy predicting the economic apcolypse when the DJA drops 150 points, 300 points, or even 500 points...and it's the beginning of the end. In less then a month the DJA has gained 1,500+ points (from 10,655 on October 2nd to 12,181 part way through today) and suddenly this indicator is no longer important if it doesn't match their preconceived views of the end any day now

How come these changes in the DJA are only important when it goes down and not up?
The Dow is not the barometer of the overall economic health.

It is beyond schizophrenic at this point. Any true investor realizes the roller coaster.

You call it doomsday, but i called the Dow at 12,000 before the end of October on another thread.

The day gamblers get all hot and bothered when their favorite past time is called for what it is.

Wall street is no longer an investment vehicle.

It is a gambling mecca. For the addicted users.

You don't have anything but luck on your side.

If you had any true knowledge of how the game is played, you wouldn't play.
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Old 10-27-2011, 08:37 PM
 
8,268 posts, read 10,382,153 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
i called the Dow at 12,000 before the end of October on another thread.

It proves my insider trading knowledge
Hah, you mean your 12k October prediction from two days ago when it was already near the end of October and the Dow was at about 11,800k proves your insider trading knowledge? Are you freaking kidding me, can you be any more transparently phony?


Did you already forget your posts from August Mr. Insider Trading Knowledge?

Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
Dow 9k by Sept 21st.
Dow 7k by Oct 31st.
buy in Dec. when the middle east war is in full swing.
Weird, your predictions are far more accurate a few days out than they were a few months out. I bet if we wait until Oct 31st you'd be able to really nail down a sharp forecast for end of August! How about 2 minutes before closing bell, that'll really show 'em your vast insider trading knowledge.
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Old 10-27-2011, 08:43 PM
 
28,906 posts, read 45,235,124 times
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Well, I wouldn't be too triumphalist about it. The debt bubble is still years from unwinding. First, the United States got the contagion. Then it spread to Europe.

Most frighteningly of all, it appears to be underway in China. Because China is really the Wild Wild West in terms of real estate speculation, off-the-books lending, the Alice In Wonderland effect of heavy government intervention in the markets, and a bevy of regional governors and economic ministers who are routinely cooking the books. In my opinion, nobody really knows what the heck is going on in the Chinese economy, the Chinese most of all.

However, there are some major hints. Every time you watch a news report showing the impressive skyline of Shanghai, remember one thing: The occupancy rate in those buildings is typically in the 25-30% range. And yet they keep on building. So while I don't think we'll be seeing breadlines and stockbrokers hurling themselves out of skyscrapers, I think anybody who thinks we're anywhere close to beyond all this is kind of a fool.

All that being said, I believe people on this board have a major case of confirmation bias. If they believe that the economy is going to hell in a handbasket, then they will see the data and news reports that confirm that. If people think that the real estate market will come back, then they will find the information that confirms that notion.

Last edited by cpg35223; 10-27-2011 at 08:52 PM..
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Old 10-27-2011, 08:46 PM
 
8,268 posts, read 10,382,153 times
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From August:
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
Long term hold, has a nice dividend. But i'd wait till market collapses in Sept/Oct.
Nice advice, Mr. Insider Trading Knowledge.



Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
If you had any true knowledge of how the game is played, you wouldn't play.
And I suspect this is the case with most who constantly claim the stock market is rigged and we're all doomed... they don't really "play" at all they just post as a pretend expert from the sidelines.
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Old 10-27-2011, 09:02 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,091 posts, read 10,492,546 times
Reputation: 4104
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
The Dow is not the barometer of the overall economic health.

It is beyond schizophrenic at this point. Any true investor realizes the roller coaster.

You call it doomsday, but i called the Dow at 12,000 before the end of October on another thread.

The day gamblers get all hot and bothered when their favorite past time is called for what it is.

Wall street is no longer an investment vehicle.

It is a gambling mecca. For the addicted users.

You don't have anything but luck on your side.

If you had any true knowledge of how the game is played, you wouldn't play.
There are 3 linked posts where people think it is, who are very vocal when the drops a few points...and very silent when it gains.

I thought it was really damn funny.

I think you need to look up what Schizophrenia is as the portion about paranoid or bizarre delusions applies well to your rants about puppet masters "pulling every string possible, while cutting their own throats" and "true knowledge" of what you think is going on. It doesn't mean having thoughts you believe are wrong.

So you didn't predict the market collapse in August in Sept/Oct? You called 12k 2 days ago after a gain of 1,200 points to 11,800...MSN and Fools printed articles about it as well that day. Great prediction abilities. 2 posts later you said the economic world would collapse along with the Dow in Q4 since Sept/Oct was a bust.

Last edited by subsound; 10-27-2011 at 09:14 PM..
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Old 10-27-2011, 10:36 PM
 
3,337 posts, read 2,483,872 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
Hah, you mean your 12k October prediction from two days ago when it was already near the end of October and the Dow was at about 11,800k proves your insider trading knowledge? Are you freaking kidding me, can you be any more transparently phony?


Did you already forget your posts from August Mr. Insider Trading Knowledge?



Weird, your predictions are far more accurate a few days out than they were a few months out. I bet if we wait until Oct 31st you'd be able to really nail down a sharp forecast for end of August! How about 2 minutes before closing bell, that'll really show 'em your vast insider trading knowledge.
It's fun isn't it. Spinning the wheel and placing your bets...

NO High like the NYSE....
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Old 10-27-2011, 10:41 PM
 
3,337 posts, read 2,483,872 times
Reputation: 921
[quote=cpg35223;21468722]

Quote:
All that being said, I believe people on this board have a major case of confirmation bias. If they believe that the economy is going to hell in a handbasket, then they will see the data and news reports that confirm that. If people think that the real estate market will come back, then they will find the information that confirms that notion.
Very true. It's a challenge to see objectively when, looking from a certain perspective.
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