I just love this market (trading, purchase, sell, work)

[mathjak107]

yeah ,you wonder how long this is going to last. its been a great year so far.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by user_id

As I said....one just needs to look beyond investing 101 and if one isn't willing to do then they should rethink what they are doing in the markets. Getting the "average person" involved in the markets was a scam from day one....


Dude...seriously? You are talking about the inflation adjusted rate, not the nominal rate. The nominal yield on treasuries, t-bills, etc is all 0% and once any of these reaches the zero bound they become equivalent to cash and that is why the closer yields get to zero the more things start to change.

what im saying is capital gains are still increasing after rates turn negative if your already a holder and the more negative they go the higher your capital gains still go..

that fact that rates hit zero or turn negative dont act as a floor for your capital gains. i have no idea what your talking about , paying more for a bill or bond than you get back including the interest is a negative return no matter how you look at it..

the world is having such issues with their own currencies loosing value that the slightly negative return they get at times lately from our bills and tips is small compared to what they lose if they dont utilize them. with tips they hope rises in inflation later give them a bigger return later on.

the same can happen with conventional bonds depending how bad the world wants the safety of them .

[Currency Pair Crocodile]

So much action here, I missed it all.

[howard555]

Well, the people who love this market, may need to respect the opinion of Mohamed El-Erian.
He works for Pimco and he thinks the market will be up 20-30% by year end, or down by 20-30%.
He feels that in the middle is the wrong place to be. He based his views on how things turn out in Europe. Greece may be an orderly, or disorderly, default. If they do get a bailout (and no one should want a bail out of anything) Portugal will be next in line to ask for $$$.

[mathjak107]

hmmmm up 30 or down 30... can he be a little more vague?

[Wilson513]

Let's see. Back to 2008 levels, high unemployment, consumer confidence down, trouble in the middle east, a debt load on the government never seen, budgets in the red for ever, health care mess and on any weekend day an Islamist could drop a box of C4 in a food court trash can and the market would drop 3000 points. Yea, things are just peachy.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

yeah ,you wonder how long this is going to last. its been a great year so far.

However if we look at the last 14 months we have a more balanced picture. It was like last year when markets were way up and you knew a correction was coming. It did but didn't run its course within the calendar year so as far as I am concerned we are in a 14 month range and the time to start taking profit is fund or stock specific. Vaue Strategies was down over 25% at the trough last year and ended up down 9.29% for the year and is now up 14.32% for the current year. That is great run and I have started taking the profit. It went into the recommended portfolio when I believe it was down 20 for 2011 so that is a good profit to take. It has slowed down of late and I would not be surprised if it was removed from the portfolio soon.

[Troof]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

hmmmm up 30 or down 30... can he be a little more vague?

LOL, I was thinking the same thing.

That guy is a real pro with that prediction... I'm a mere amateur, so my prediction is somewhere between +/- 33.5%

[user_id]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

what im saying is capital gains are still increasing after rates turn negative

I know what you're saying...and its wrong. To say it again, you are confusing inflation adjusted rates (i.e., real rates) with nominal rates. The lower bound on nominal rates is 0% and once you hit 0% treasuries are equivalent to cash and it is precisely due to this equivalent that they won't appreciate once the bound is reached.

But let's put this another way, if 30-year treasuries are yielding 0% (nominally) what is the point of exchanging your cash for them?

The rest of your commentary doesn't make much sense, obviously you haven't bothered to understand bonds and currencies.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

hmmmm up 30 or down 30... can he be a little more vague?

Nothing vague about it, predicting that the markets will increase or decrease by 30% in X amount of time is a meaningfully prediction. Why? Because its a prediction you can profit from........assuming of course its correct.

Do you know how to profit whether something goes up or down in value?