U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Happy Halloween!
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics > Investing
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 1.5 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Jump to a detailed profile or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Business Search - 14 Million verified businesses
Search for:  near: 
 
 
Old 03-20-2012, 04:14 PM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
180 posts, read 40,592 times
Reputation: 86
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Like I said, I'm just one guy. But if you look at the history of Apple stock over the last 5 years you'll find that there have been plenty of good short opportunities, it is only in the last 3 months or so that it has gone pretty much straight up.


Let me get this straight, so you believe that one of the most talked about equities is undervalued? Why? What do you know that other investors don't?

Anyhow, undervalued, overvalued.....its all claptrap. I care about the psychology....
1. I mentioned that AAPL has corrections, it's to be expected with any stock. However, trying to guess those corrections is dangerous when the stock is rapidly growing and beating earnings consistently. The risk/reward just isn't there.

2. You can compare AAPL to other leaders in the industry and look at their P/E etc. AAPL is undervalued in that respect.

3. I also care about psychology. AAPL has been driven up by new products, earnings, and growth. What recently happened? New iPad release with record weekend sales, dividend announcement, share buyback announcement. These are making new and old investors excited.
Quick reply to this message

 
Old 03-20-2012, 05:44 PM
Status: "Grains....Grains" (set 10 days ago)
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,313 posts, read 10,255,554 times
Reputation: 4038
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan_ View Post
However, trying to guess those corrections is dangerous when the stock is rapidly growing and beating earnings consistently.
Why is it more dangerous to "guess" the corrections when the stock is bullish rather than bearish? Are you saying that shorting is more risky after a stock has had a major rally, and less risky when the stock has already crashed? Seems...like an odd suggestion....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan_ View Post
2. You can compare AAPL to other leaders in the industry and look at their P/E etc. AAPL is undervalued in that respect.
It is? Apple's P/E is noticeable higher than most others in the industry. Under this criteria you should be buying companies like Xerox, Microsoft, etc...not Apple.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan_ View Post
3. I also care about psychology. AAPL has been driven up by new products, earnings, and growth.
You aren't talking about psychology here, you're talking about earnings, products, etc. Big difference.

Anyhow, I wouldn't short Apple right this minute. There is still a lot of hype so its just a matter of waiting until the euphoria wears thin... Actually, I don't plan to short either, I'll buy puts. I always prefer options when there is a decent market for them.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 05:59 PM
 
24,821 posts, read 26,295,302 times
Reputation: 33334
Well, given that the PE ratio is still not wildly overvalued in the 16 range, and is continuing to fill up its pipeline with a variety of new product and service rollouts, I think people would be hard pressed to classify them as simply another technology company and value them accordingly. What's more, if Apple does what analyst predict and gets into the television content world with a beginning-to-end distribution strategy along the lines of iPod/iTunes, I'm not sure that the growth is going to end anytime in the foreseeable future. In fact, I would argue that if Apple truly cracks the code in terms of content/software/hardware, it will prove the easiest money Apple's ever made, given the current convoluted distribution channel that we must endure to simply watch television programming. All that being said, I'm not sure that shorting is the right strategy for a long time.

I think the other thing to realize that while Microsoft, et al, are in the software biz OR the hardware biz, Apple is not comparable because it is in the content, distribution, hardware, and software industry, all of which combine to ensure multiple revenue streams that complement each other. So you don't just buy an iPhone from Apple. You buy the distribution channel for content and software, too. Furthermore, the people who simply try to weigh Mac technology versus PC technology have totally missed the point of the company's driving value--namely, the ease of customer experience throughout the ownership of the product. From initial purchase to setup to use to customer support to everything else, everything in the Apple universe tends to work far more smoothly than the alternative. This point in particular was reinforced to me once again when I tried to fix my daughters year-old HP the other weekend and seems to be utterly lost on the Microsofts of the world. That's why I've had a buy and hold strategy on Apple since 2002 (And damn glad I did. A shame that it was only $500 at the time. Otherwise, I'd be writing this from my bungalow in French Polynesia). In that sense, to try and compare them to other technology companies in order to derive benchmarks is a little idiotic. The company is sui generis in that regard and doesn't yield to pat, formulaic valuations.

Last edited by cpg35223; 03-20-2012 at 06:51 PM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 06:57 PM
 
Location: Wilkinsburg
1,661 posts, read 1,265,828 times
Reputation: 956
It's just hard to argue that Apple's PPS growth is based on hype when the company makes more money each year (at an accelerating rate) and absolutely crushes its competitors by nearly every performance or valuation metric.

I'm not suggesting that everyone should be loading up on shares right now, but it certainly seems that there are better stocks to short.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 07:10 PM
 
24,821 posts, read 26,295,302 times
Reputation: 33334
Quote:
Originally Posted by ML North View Post
It's just hard to argue that Apple's PPS growth is based on hype when the company makes more money each year (at an accelerating rate) and absolutely crushes its competitors by nearly every performance or valuation metric.

I'm not suggesting that everyone should be loading up on shares right now, but it certainly seems that there are better stocks to short.
Exactly. Look, I'm not a total fanboy. But these people who snipe at the company's performance and products over the past ten years strike me as very good at nitpicking but awfully dense when it comes to grasping strategy.

When did I buy Apple? It wasn't the iPod itself, although that was a pretty cool music player. Instead, it was the iPod's overall product strategy, how it synced to Apple's iTunes, making music management so much easier than my old player. To this day, I kick myself for not doubling down when the iTunes Store came into play. What a brilliant concept that was -- Breathtakingly simple, and designed around the needs of the consumer as opposed to the needs of the record companies. It guaranteed that Apple would completely and utterly dominate the distribution channel for music for years to come. That's why they keep crushing it year after year financially, and people whose investing is simply based on stock technicals don't get it and never will.

I mean, when's the last time you walked into a record store and bought a CD? And, if you did, are you doing it with nearly the same frequency as you did before the iTunes store opened online? That's why entire retail format, record stores, practically vanished almost overnight. To be sure, there are holdouts here and there. But aside for stores that cater to vinyl collectors, the format is a dinosaur as doomed as video stores.

And with its huge pile of cash, established distribution channels, seamless hardware and software integration, and smart, smart business strategy, I wouldn't bet against Apple to achieve the same thing in video content that it has done in music content.

Last edited by cpg35223; 03-20-2012 at 07:21 PM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 08:24 PM
Status: "Grains....Grains" (set 10 days ago)
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,313 posts, read 10,255,554 times
Reputation: 4038
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
It guaranteed that Apple would completely and utterly dominate the distribution channel for music for years to come.
Umm....huh? Apple, by no means, dominates music distribution. You think Apple is the only company that distributions music digitally? This is not to mention that the iTunes is already become outdated and being replaced by music distribution as a service (e.g., spotify).

There are hundreds of start-ups, many established companies, etc that all would like to eat Apple's cake. That is, the primary question is what Apple's competitors do....not what Apple does.

Anyhow, the comments on this thread and else where make it pretty obvious that apple is hyped.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 08:35 PM
Status: "Grains....Grains" (set 10 days ago)
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,313 posts, read 10,255,554 times
Reputation: 4038
Quote:
Originally Posted by ML North View Post
It's just hard to argue that Apple's PPS growth is based on hype when the company makes more money each year (at an accelerating rate) and absolutely crushes its competitors by nearly every performance or valuation metric.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Apple, as a company, has done fairly well but people are investing based on hyped ideas about the future of Apple, not so much its past performance. I'm not sure how anybody that is savvy in tech can have such convenience in the future of Apple....a company that doesn't control any serious technology.

Anyhow, the true value behind Apple is the brand. Apple could vanish tomorrow and all the same products would exist, indeed every product they've created has been from existing ideas/technology. Will their brand hold up? Probably not...but who knows. But is there a lot of hype around Apple right now? Threads like this make it pretty obvious..... My suggestion here is simply that there will be a good shorting opportunity when the hype runs its course....I don't believe you've reached that point yet. I'm not long or short Apple, nor have I been in the past. But heck being long over the last few years would have been nice, but I have a bad tendency of not investing in companies I don't like.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 09:01 PM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,023 posts, read 13,849,722 times
Reputation: 11309
Even if you are Captain Jack Aubrey, never go against the tide. Short interest does a cyclical 9m to 9m and has only been declining over the last few weeks. Two consistent 5+ percentage dips. Market sentiment looks the other way from short sellers. Good luck shorting this one. Am very interested at the 3/15 data. Let's wait and watch.

You're welcome to calculate the short interest ratio and compare it to something where the short interest ratio is insane. Like, UEC, maintaining a consistent short interest ratio which has been alarming since the nuke crisis and shows no sign of abating.

Settlement Date Short Interest Percent Change Average Daily Share Volume Days to Cover
02/29/2012 9,797,118 (6.22) 23,178,150 1.00
02/15/2012 10,446,497 (1.35) 19,290,748 1.00
01/31/2012 10,589,404 (8.16) 14,754,114 1.00
01/13/2012 11,530,052 15.73 10,072,631 1.14
12/30/2011 9,962,590 (5.89) 9,656,582 1.03

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/short-interest - broken link)

Last edited by Currency Pair Crocodile; 03-20-2012 at 09:15 PM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 09:23 PM
 
24,821 posts, read 26,295,302 times
Reputation: 33334
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Apple, as a company, has done fairly well but people are investing based on hyped ideas about the future of Apple, not so much its past performance. I'm not sure how anybody that is savvy in tech can have such convenience in the future of Apple....a company that doesn't control any serious technology.

Anyhow, the true value behind Apple is the brand. Apple could vanish tomorrow and all the same products would exist, indeed every product they've created has been from existing ideas/technology. Will their brand hold up? Probably not...but who knows. But is there a lot of hype around Apple right now? Threads like this make it pretty obvious..... My suggestion here is simply that there will be a good shorting opportunity when the hype runs its course....I don't believe you've reached that point yet. I'm not long or short Apple, nor have I been in the past. But heck being long over the last few years would have been nice, but I have a bad tendency of not investing in companies I don't like.
The highlighted text pretty much proves that you don't know what you're talking about. Fairly well? The first rule of holes: When you're in one, stop digging.

Last edited by cpg35223; 03-20-2012 at 09:35 PM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-20-2012, 09:31 PM
 
24,821 posts, read 26,295,302 times
Reputation: 33334
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Umm....huh? Apple, by no means, dominates music distribution. You think Apple is the only company that distributions music digitally? This is not to mention that the iTunes is already become outdated and being replaced by music distribution as a service (e.g., spotify).

There are hundreds of start-ups, many established companies, etc that all would like to eat Apple's cake. That is, the primary question is what Apple's competitors do....not what Apple does.

Anyhow, the comments on this thread and else where make it pretty obvious that apple is hyped.
Well, given how iTunes accounts for 70% of all digital music sales worldwide, I'm not sure how you can make that statement with a straight face. 70% market share with a hard-wired distribution channel is pretty unassailable. What's more, I'd take this comment more seriously if Apple had been standing still, something for which no evidence exists. The fact that, between iPods, iPads, and iPhones has sold close to 400 million music-playing units, a number that is accelerating, speaks to the long term prospects on the company and its channels. Hype has nothing to do with it, and to say so is to ignore the facts of the matter.
Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:
Over $84,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics > Investing

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2014, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Top