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FB is not the next Myspace. Myspace was successful only with teens and early 20-somethings. FB is popular with teens through middle-aged people. Even my father, who's nearly 70, started using it because many of his friends are on FB. They're 55-75 years old. My former co-workers are in the 30-50 age group and most of them have FB accounts; almost none of them was on Myspace.
FB makes around $1B in net income but the expected market cap will be around $100B. That's way too expensive. Unless I can get in with a trailing P/E of 40, I won't buy. You might as well buy AAPL with its P/E of 35. I wouldn't pay a higher P/E for FB than AAPL; AAPL is growing ridiculously fast.
Yes, they are. Just wait until they decide that they want to break into the social media space and compete directly against Facebook to keep fueling that growth. After all, you can only sell so many Ipods and IPhones, right? So why not take all the customers that already use Apple devices to access Facebook and put them on an Apple social media site? Apple has huge revenues already in place to support their website without relying on the income from advertizing and selling user information that Facebook needs (especially now that they're going public), so they can offer a website with less ads and a more agreeable privacy policy that users will appreciate. Oh, and Google too. Just a thought.
I will be buying Facebook! I honestly believe Facebook will be another BIG competitor to Google. Facebook has growing revenue, growing profit, big revenue, and big profit! They have the ability to make massive acquisitions. They have 850 million users that advertisers can target. They have room to grow internationally. They could potentially create their own phone or own search engine. I think search engine would be the way to go. There are huge possibilities and I definitely think it's a business to take seriously. My largest positions will most likely be Apple and Facebook.
Facebook is the Ford Motor company of our generation. I know it's hard to believe for you old timers out there, but capitalism is moving at the speed of light when it comes to social media. We are all just racing to keep up
FB is not the next Myspace. Myspace was successful only with teens and early 20-somethings. FB is popular with teens through middle-aged people. Even my father, who's nearly 70, started using it because many of his friends are on FB. They're 55-75 years old. My former co-workers are in the 30-50 age group and most of them have FB accounts; almost none of them was on Myspace.
FB makes around $1B in net income but the expected market cap will be around $100B. That's way too expensive. Unless I can get in with a trailing P/E of 40, I won't buy. You might as well buy AAPL with its P/E of 35. I wouldn't pay a higher P/E for FB than AAPL; AAPL is growing ridiculously fast.
I agree 100% with this. Facebook is a game changing company, at least in the short-medium term. Long term, I am not really fully convinced Zuckerberg is the type of manager who can really vault this company to the next level. I mean, they can't even figure out mobile, that alone would scare me in terms of investing in this company for the long term. How innovative are they?
Facebook can simply not justify 100B valuation without significant innovation from their current business model. I personally don't see a really good track record of innovation coming out of this company to justify this kind of valuation premium. This is not to say they can't do it - it is possible - just unlikely in my view. For me this is a clear pass unless it hits the 30-40B valuation range too, and maintains strong fundamentals. That's about how much I think this is overpriced. I just don't see tons of long term upside at 100B. That is not to say it can't or won't vault or rise after IPO, but I don't really think any rise/vault within a few months after IPO really is about fundamentals with this company.
Facebook has traded on the private market at about $44 a share. One thing to note is that those who bought in the private market including the employees of the company are not allowed to sell their shares until 6 months after the IPO. (scheduled for May 17th).
The recently released earnings report is worth taking a look at for anyone planning to invest. I was going to open a large position, but now will enter with a much smaller amount than previously planned.
Not me. I think Facebook has peaked, and I think the social media space is way too fickle.
Anyone remember Myspace? It was bigger then Facebook, and now its nothing. That happened in the course of about 2 years.
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It's a buy!
