A couple high risk, high reward biotech pennies. (balance, trading, calls)

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

Hopefully, some profit takers will start moving over to NAVB now and maybe we can get more than a few cents movement each day.

Q: How can you make your stock go up?
A: Take some action, opposite of your views.


So, I took some action that might increase the value of your NAVB.


I've watched this stock trade between 4.09 and 4.45 from July 3rd to July 18th.
date low high
7/18 4.27 4.42
7/17 4.21 4.34
7/16 4.24 4.35
7/13 4.23 4.36
7/12 4.15 4.24
7/11 4.11 4.38
7/10 4.09 4.40
7/9 4.30 4.44
7/6 4.27 4.45
7/5 4.19 4.32
7/3 4.15 4.31

Last week, I paid 55 cents for the August $4.00 calls, making it all profit above $4.55.
The stock has frustrated me, so I took action. I sold today, the July $4.50 calls for 40 cents.
If I can survive the next 2 days, the calls I sold will expire worthless.
I do not expect the FDA before July 21st.
If the $4.50 calls expire, I lower my cost on the August 4.00 calls to only 15 cents.
That means profits are $1 for $1, above $4.15, and I have 4 weeks left, to wait for the stock to exceed $4.15.

15 cents, or $150.00, gives me a better risk / reward than paying over $4,000.00 for the stock.

Go NAVB.

[treasurekidd]

NAVB was up another 10 cents today to $4.39, hopefully some more ARNA and VVUS shareholder will move on over to NAVB. I thing the next 4-6 weeks are going to be fun. Good luck with the options Howard, but I don't really understand much about them - they make my brain hurt. I hope they work out though. I'm already looking ahead to my next PDUFA play, and am looking at NPSP, IPXL, SNTA and CRTX, with ALXA, RPTP and DVAX after that.

[howard555]

Something on AMRN got released early by mistake......I'm still trying to piece it together.

Go NAVB.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

Good luck with the options Howard, but I don't really understand much about them -
they make my brain hurt. I hope they work out though.

Let me explain them, with this actual example.
You bought X number of shares of NAVB, at $3.73, I think.

For example only, let's assume you bought 1000 shares = $3,730.00.

I bought 10 of the August $4.00 calls for 55 cents = $550.00.
I bought these when the stock was around $4.33. My breakeven is $4.55.
If the stock closes tomorrow under $4.50, my breakeven goes down to $4.15.
(I sold the July $4.50 calls)

Options was a way for me to control 1000 shares for 5+ weeks, for $550.00, instead of a few thousand dollars.

You can hold your shares forever.
I only have until August 17th for NAVB to get above $4.55, or hopefully after tomorrow, above $4.15.

[treasurekidd]

Options was a way for me to control 1000 shares for 5+ weeks, for $550.00, instead of a few thousand dollars.

You can hold your shares forever.
I only have until August 17th for NAVB to get above $4.55, or hopefully after tomorrow, above $4.15.

Wow, that's really timing your bets, huh? I don't know if I'd be comfortable spending $550 only to have them expire worthless. That's a lot of beer money. I know it's really the same gamble with buying the shares, but I like having the potentially very long window for share to recover if they pull back.

Anyway, NAVB made another nice little .15 cent (3.42%) move up today, so I'm currently up 20%, and I think that the move is just starting. My goal is to get out somewhere between $4.75 and $5.25, so I've got a ways to go, but I think it can be done over the next 3-4 weeks. I think it looks pretty good for your $4.55 break even mark this week.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

I think that the move is just starting. My goal is to get out somewhere between $4.75 and $5.25, so I've got a ways to go, but I think it can be done over the next 3-4 weeks. I think it looks pretty good for your $4.55 break even mark this week.

My breakeven is $4.55, but not this week.
I have until August 17th.

If a $4.54 stock (today's close) that has an event on September 10th, can not be above $4.55 on August 17th, then it was a mistake to open the trade.

[treasurekidd]

I still think that's a good play. NAVB should be over $4.55 come August 17. If it's not, then I played it all wrong too.

[treasurekidd]

Another good day with NAVB today, up another .12 cents (2.6%) to $4.66. Nowhere near as volatile and exciting as ARNA was, but I could learn to like this slow and steady gain trend. ONXX soared today after an early FDA approval announcement, so hopefull NAVB will pick up some ONXX shareholders in addition to the ARNA and VVUS crowd.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

Another good day with NAVB today, up another .12 cents (2.6%) to $4.66. Nowhere near as volatile and exciting as ARNA was, but I could learn to like this slow and steady gain trend. ONXX soared today after an early FDA approval announcement, so hopefull NAVB will pick up some ONXX shareholders in addition to the ARNA and VVUS crowd.

I just picked up some NAVB for 4.55.
I'll let you know in 2-3 weeks, if I am a proud owner.

I've tried for days, and it looks like I got it at the bottom for the day.
It appears to be down with the market, and not on it's own news, or the news of one of it's peers.

[treasurekidd]

Yes, todays pullback was a healthy one. I think we'll see it start to trend back up tomorrow. Good job on getting in on the pullback Howard. I;m starting to take a closer look at CRTX, which may be my next stop after I close out the NAVB play.