A couple high risk, high reward biotech pennies. (margin, commissions, investor)

[treasurekidd]

Thanks Howard, that's good info on AMRN. I'll keep my eye on it and do so DD, may be worth getting in a few weeks ahead of FDA in July. I show the date as 7-26-12 - plenty of time to get in if it's worthy.

[treasurekidd]

Well, ARNA closed a bit short of my $7 guess, but my theory was pretty close to how it played out today. I did not sell, and plan to hold through at east Tuesday next week, looking to get out between $8 and $9. Looking at the following over the next few months:

XNPT
ARNA (wait for a pullbacl to buy back in leading up to 6-27 FDA date)
VVUS
AMRN
HZNP
TLON
NAVB

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

Well, ARNA closed a bit short of my $7 guess, but my theory was pretty close to how it played out today. I did not sell, and plan to hold through at east Tuesday next week, looking to get out between $8 and $9. Looking at the following over the next few months:

XNPT
ARNA (wait for a pullbacl to buy back in leading up to 6-27 FDA date)
VVUS
AMRN
HZNP
TLON
NAVB

You gained a friend today. BMO raised their target price on ARNA to $10.00.
I was within 10 cents of getting filled near $2.55 but missed out.

[treasurekidd]

I'm still holding on ARNA, expecting that it will slowly trend up this week. I'm also planning on buying a small chunk of XNPT tomorrow, although maybe I should have bought it today - it went up 12% today alone.

[treasurekidd]

OOOPS! I got the double whammy on Arna today. Down 8% AND an SPO - DOH!! Oh well, I'm still waaay up, and I think it will go higher still heading towards the June 27 FDA decision. I also bought a good chunck of XNPT today, looking to get in before it runs up any higher. I'm hoping it's got another 10% or so before it's June 9th FDA date. Still looking at VVUS, HZNP, AMRN, and NAVB.

[howard555]

Arena - What Now? - Seeking Alpha

I looked for news on Arena yesterday and saw none to support the decline from the after hours high the day of the new to $7.21 down to after hours yesterday of $5.69.
Here its is, they are going to have a secondary offering of shares. This means they need cash, in many cases. And it dilutes the existing shares.

[howard555]

XNPT has no debt = good.
I looked at the options for today. No puts have traded, and only 10 calls have been traded. They were the June $8.00 calls, and sounds like someone wanting to get rich quick or get a move up on low cost. The months are May, June, Sept. and Dec. but zero options bought, except those June $8.00 calls.
The June $6 call is only 70 cents.
These options seem to imply that not much of a move in the stock is anticipated.
It's up about 25% last few weeks but their earnings and revenues were ok.

The options with the greatest open positions are the June $6 calls and the June $6 puts.
The June $6 straddle would cost about $1.50 needing a move up or down, at least $1.50 on the June 9th news. The options do not seem to imply a move that big, is expected.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

Well, ARNA closed a bit short of my $7 guess, but my theory was pretty close to how it played out today.

NAVB

I'm not finding any "key dates" for NAVB.
Do you have any?

The January $3.00 call options are only around 80 cents.
That gives the stock 8 months to get to $3.80 breakeven price.

Some Oct. $3.00 calls sold for 65 cents. I'd rather pay the extra 15 cents and gain an extra 3 months.

Their revenues are very tiny, but they are actually making money.
0 insider ownership and 0 institutional ownership.
When, and if, the institutions pile on, it could go up very fast.

[treasurekidd]

When, and if, the institutions pile on, it could go up very fast.

100% agree with that. NAVB has a Sept 10th PDUFA date (FDA approval deadline) for Lymposeek, so theres plenty of time to watch it and pick and choose when to get it, if at all.

Lymphoseek decision delayed by FDA till September, Navidea says - Columbus - Business First



ARNA went back down today, but I'm still up about 80%, and I think now that the market had digested the public offering (11M shares at $5.50), I think we'll see a slow but steady rise heading towards their June 27 PDUFA date, starting tomorrow or Friday - IMHO, of course.


My XNPT went up 8+% today!

[howard555]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

100% agree with that. NAVB has a Sept 10th PDUFA date (FDA approval deadline) for Lymposeek, so theres plenty of time to watch it and pick and choose when to get it, if at all.

Lymphoseek decision delayed by FDA till September, Navidea says - Columbus - Business First

The stock is $2.81 and has never closed below $2.80 since 2-11-12.
That implies a bottom waiting on Sept. 10th.
It's always been $2.80, or higher, for the last 3 months, so it should stay above $2.80 for 3 more months pending some very negative company specific news. It's been around $3.50 a couple times, so major support waiting on 9/10 seems to be 2.80.

But, making assumptions can be losers.

added: the one year low is $2.00 so the world might have to end, before 9/10, for it fall under $2.00.