S&P 800 or DOW 17,000? (bonds, investment, stock, buy)

[howard555]

Gary Shilling says the S&P is headed to 800 when we go into recession late year.
Another well known analyst says Dow 17,000.

800 will scare alot of people.
17,000 is quite a stretch.

I'd settle for a totally side ways market, in a narrow range.

What about you?

[bmw335xi]

I doubt either prediction will occur this year. I believe the market will continue higher, but not to 17,000.

[Willy702]

Anyone who makes predictions for the next year in the market and insists they are very valid predictions is not "smart" money in my book. Most who do such things are either not stock pickers and just need a story to sell people on or are just trying to get lucky so CNBC and the like notice them.

[shaker281]

Gary Shilling has a 4 part article on Bloomberg where he highlights some interesting points. What conclusion you draw from them is another story. Clearly he is a bear.

Then there are all the unknown factors that prevail over time. i.e. the upcoming presidential race. And how it will affect deficit spending. I am not comfortable with Obama's rhetoric on business, but that is likely just BS to play to his base constituency. I am even more concerned that a GOP president and a GOP congress will conspire to spend us into oblivion. They will simply not make the necessary cuts to defense we need to ensure solvency. Nor will they raise revenues. Either party will likely increase the medicare age, so that is a moot point, I believe.

Then there is Europe. The only foreign investment I would even consider at this point are select emerging markets.

Frankly, I have been 100% equities for the past 3 years, but have moved to a 70/30 position. If things start looking ugly, I will go 60/40 or even 50/50.

[mathjak107]

the time to make that decision is before we fall.

it used to crack me up when people would e-mail me in 2008-2009 and ask me if i thought they should sell.

i used to tell them the time to have asked that question was back in october when we broke new highs.

now that we fell 30-45% the only question you should be asking is what do i buy and when should i rebalance.

folks do the opposite and get burned . human nature is we hate to loose money and that will have you doing the wrong thing all the time unless you fight that reaction.

when things fall from a high a little we all go ill sell soon as we go back up.

then we fall some more and you go ill just wait for the next good up day.

we fall further and now you go i cant sell now and lose my money so you end up riding it down until you hit your pucker point and bail.

the words ill change my portfolio allocations if things turn ugly have blindsided more people than we care to count.

[Jaggy001]

Neither prediction is correct IMHO. I think that the world economy will continue to recover slowly and that the markets will also go up slowly but with a decent amount of volatility on the way.

[Troof]

The market always and only goes up... so 800 is impossible.

[mysticaltyger]

Originally Posted by howard555

Gary Shilling says the S&P is headed to 800 when we go into recession late year.
Another well known analyst says Dow 17,000.

800 will scare alot of people.
17,000 is quite a stretch.

I'd settle for a totally side ways market, in a narrow range.

What about you?

Who the heck knows?

[irish_bob]

that siegel guy who was on bloomberg earlier this evening , predicting the dow to reach 17000 within two years , he had,nt a clue

he spoke of how it would benefit northern europe if the euro broke up and how spain and italy only comprised 20% of the eurozone economy and therefore cutting them loose would lift germany etc , he completley overlooked the fact that in the event of a euro breakup , the german deutschmark would soar in value , damage them competitivley and kill thier crucial export sector

[shaker281]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

the time to make that decision is before we fall.

it used to crack me up when people would e-mail me in 2008-2009 and ask me if i thought they should sell.

i used to tell them the time to have asked that question was back in october when we broke new highs.

now that we fell 30-45% the only question you should be asking is what do i buy and when should i rebalance.

folks do the opposite and get burned . human nature is we hate to loose money and that will have you doing the wrong thing all the time unless you fight that reaction.

when things fall from a high a little we all go ill sell soon as we go back up.

then we fall some more and you go ill just wait for the next good up day.

we fall further and now you go i cant sell now and lose my money so you end up riding it down until you hit your pucker point and bail.

the words ill change my portfolio allocations if things turn ugly have blindsided more people than we care to count.

Agree 100%! Why I moved to 30% bonds in my retirement and investment portfolios over the past 12 months in stages! And shifted to less risky/volatile equities. 30% is not too risk averse by many standards, but one year ago I was 100% equities with sizable stakes in small caps and foreign/emerging markets.