Apple earnings? (trading, investor, stock, purchase)

[samnyc]

hi,

Apple is reporting their earnings after the bell today? Any one playing this?

Thanks.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by samnyc

hi,

Apple is reporting their earnings after the bell today? Any one playing this?

Thanks.

I have it more than one way.
I own shares.
I own an August 610 put option. This should protect the shares.
I own an August 605 call option. I'm trying to sell the weekly 625 call for $6.20.

Then in after hours, I'm free to sell my shares at any price I choose, and as the numbers come out the stock is going to fly up or down or up AND down.

The company guided to 34B and $8.68.....they always low ball it, so the guidance they give for the Sept. quarter should be almost ignored.

Last quarter 20% of sales of one of their products came from China.
Investors will want to hear that went up.

estimates are:
10.37 earnings, whisper of 11.89.
revenues 37.63B
27m I-phones
4.5m Macs
6.5m I-pods
14.2 I-pads

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by samnyc

hi,

Apple is reporting their earnings after the bell today? Any one playing this?

Thanks.

I own 225 shares of AAPL, I'm about 70% positive they will beat earnings estimates. Whether or not they will beat the "whisper number" I'm not sure though. I'm more worried about their guidance for Q4 because I know it will disappoint just like last year. Either way, I don't really care because I'm confident AAPL will hit or get near $1,000 share in 2013. I think AAPL will float between $500 to $700 until they announce Q1 2013 earnings (which I believe will be the biggest earnings report to date).

I'm deciding whether or not I should buy some call options to play earnings. I bought some Sep options yesterday and ended up selling them this morning for a 15% gain. However, my intention was to hold them into earnings and sell them tomorrow. I'll probably buy some call options right before the market closes today as a gamble.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I own 225 shares of AAPL, I'm about 70% positive they will beat earnings estimates. Whether or not they will beat the "whisper number" I'm not sure though. Either way, I don't really care because I'm confident AAPL will hit or get near $1,000 share in 2013. I think AAPL will float between $500 to $700 until they announce Q1 2013 earnings (which I believe will be the biggest earnings report to date).

I'm deciding whether or not I should buy some call options to play earnings. I bought some Sep options yesterday and ended up selling them this morning for a 15% gain. However, my intention was to hold them into earnings and sell them tomorrow. I'll probably buy some call options right before the market closes today as a gamble.

I hope you are wrong on $500 being the bottom of a trading range.

Maybe it bounces today, to 630-640, and then if it backs up, maybe 575 would be the low.

[howard555]

CNBC just reported that last quarter AAPL went up 9% post earnings.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by howard555

I hope you are wrong on $500 being the bottom of a trading range.

Maybe it bounces today, to 630-640, and then if it backs up, maybe 575 would be the low.

I hope so too, but I figure if they were to miss earnings they would probably go on a downtrend to/near $500 before finding support. I'm thinking they will beat and go to $640 tomorrow. If they miss I'm thinking they will go to $560 tomorrow.

[howard555]

If the stock goes to 500, my shares go down 100. My August 610 put would be worth 110.
I paid 28, so my put would be worth 82 (110-28)

So a 500 stock I'm down 18 or 1800.00. So, 500 won't break me, but I'd rather see it stay near 600 on the downside, so I can sell weekly puts.

[howard555]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I hope so too, but I figure if they were to miss earnings they would probably go on a downtrend to/near $500 before finding support. I'm thinking they will beat and go to $640 tomorrow. If they miss I'm thinking they will go to $560 tomorrow.

With so many moving parts.....I-Phones, I-Pads, I-Pods, Macs, China, low ball guidance, whisper numbers, anticipation of another un-realistic blowout, the after hours is going to be wild.
I won't hesitate to sell, as a trade, on a move above 630.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by howard555

With so many moving parts.....I-Phones, I-Pads, I-Pods, Macs, China, low ball guidance, whisper numbers, anticipation of another un-realistic blowout, the after hours is going to be wild.
I won't hesitate to sell, as a trade, on a move above 630.

I just bought some 600 SEP C for 28.65 and some 630 SEP C for 16.70. If there is a pop after hours I will sell my shares and repurchase them tomorrow. AAPL usually goes higher in after hours vs the following day. If AAPL misses, I'm just hanging onto my shares like I mentioned earlier and selling my options at whatever loss tomorrow. Good luck!

[howard555]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I just bought some 600 SEP C for 28.65 and some 630 SEP C for 16.70. If there is a pop after hours I will sell my shares and repurchase them tomorrow. AAPL usually goes higher in after hours vs the following day. If AAPL misses, I'm just hanging onto my shares like I mentioned earlier and selling my options at whatever loss tomorrow. Good luck!

This should be the order the news is released.

1. Earnings and revenues.
That should create massive volatility.

2. Then the number of products sold, or shipped in each category.

3. Finally the low ball guidance.

If #1 is bad then #2 and #3 will be meaningless.

Go AAPL