bond allocation to rebalanced portfolio

[mathjak107]

We will always have short term opportunity and long term. Short term is much harder to call for some asset classes and easier for others.

Right now unless we slip into a prolonged recession bonds have lttle place to go except down as rates rise eventually. That to me is an easy call when rates are close to zero.

We dont know when rates will rise but i tend to think there are few who are not in agreement.

I think longer term equities will produce about 6% or so instead of the 9 to 11% they did in the past.

Shorter term the ills of the world makes those zero coupon 30 year treasuries look very attractive for some good capital gains.

For speculating i see those treasuries playing out far better than equities short term.

Despite wall street pushing equities the 30 year is up another 12% ytd so far.

[Ariadne22]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

Despite wall street pushing equities the 30 year is up another 12% ytd so far.

I must have missed the move. TLT in my portfolio is off 2.9% as of today since I bought it ten weeks ago. 'Course a week from now it could all be different.

[mathjak107]

Tlt is not zero coupon. Its up ytd i think about 3.80% or so. The zero coupon 30 year can be as much as 3x as volatile.

I found them to volatile even for the permanent portfolio.

Benham used to have a bunch of target date zero coupon funds. Phew could those things swing.

plmco has one which is an etf

Ill see how they are doing and get the symbol. I havent looked in a while so ill report back with accurate numbers

[mathjak107]

Its zroc..morningstar shows up 12% as of 7/31. Its only a 25 year zero fund so a 30 year would be up a lttle more ytd.

Zroc is a plmco etf. Not for the feint hearted thats for sure but nothing will respond like these zero coupn bonds when the markets falter.

[mathjak107]

Today was a down day for bonds, tlt was down i think 1.41 % while zroz was down 2.24%. big difference in swings up and down.

[irish_bob]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

We will always have short term opportunity and long term. Short term is much harder to call for some asset classes and easier for others.

Right now unless we slip into a prolonged recession bonds have lttle place to go except down as rates rise eventually. That to me is an easy call when rates are close to zero.

We dont know when rates will rise but i tend to think there are few who are not in agreement.

I think longer term equities will produce about 6% or so instead of the 9 to 11% they did in the past.

Shorter term the ills of the world makes those zero coupon 30 year treasuries look very attractive for some good capital gains.

For speculating i see those treasuries playing out far better than equities short term.

Despite wall street pushing equities the 30 year is up another 12% ytd so far.

this is off topic but would you agree with those who say your as well off owning apple right now for the next three years as the s+p , the market is paying just below 2% , apple is yielding 1.75% and both have a PE of around 14 ? , google could also be used as an example , both are cash rich companies so should be able to ride out any major downturn aswell as a the broad market , or am i completley wrongheaded

ps , bare in mind that im not suggesting someone own nothing but apple or google , just making the case for those two mega caps as a core versus the s + p from the POV of yield , growth , security and stability

[mathjak107]

i cant say , i dont know either stock well enough and i certainly would never buy anything based on yield..