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Old 06-26-2013, 09:33 PM
 
169 posts, read 192,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
One reason why I've followed Jim more than most commentators....he's not a perma bull attached to any one asset class. I think it gives him better perspective than most.

If you just listen to the gold guys, their cases can get pretty extreme. I.e. various conspiracy theories. And more esoteric arguements. It's like they are attached to the hip to gold (or silver).

I've seen Jim interviewed for years about gold. He's been more objective than 70% of them. I.e. no conspiracies. He expected gold to go down (it had been up for so many years in a row).

I think he gives you a good starting point for global macro direction. I would not follow him blindly. When he says he's short technology stocks?? Or JP Morgan or something?? That makes alarm bells go off.
Jim Rogers is really good. He even admits he is not a great market timer or "trader", but over the longer term (looking out in terms of months and not just weeks), his record is excellent. One of the best in the business if you follow him closely.

Most recent call was looking for a correction in gold when everyone was bullish in the short-term. Said he was looking to buy at 1300, more at 1200, and even more at 1000-1100 if it dropped that low. He specifically said he was not buying when it was above 1300. Should be interesting what gold does over the next few years.
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Old 06-27-2013, 01:45 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,883 posts, read 5,866,508 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Box101 View Post
Jim Rogers is really good. He even admits he is not a great market timer or "trader", but over the longer term (looking out in terms of months and not just weeks), his record is excellent. One of the best in the business if you follow him closely.

Most recent call was looking for a correction in gold when everyone was bullish in the short-term. Said he was looking to buy at 1300, more at 1200, and even more at 1000-1100 if it dropped that low. He specifically said he was not buying when it was above 1300. Should be interesting what gold does over the next few years.
I've followed Jim closely for years, since probably the late 90's, 1998, 99.

He has some great books, Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist. Investment Biker was written in, I think 92, he was talking about the problems now. I think his skill is judging country, A, B, C, D on fundamentals. Like a weight on a scale.

He's been bullish in the last year or two on Myanmar. A few years ago, maybe 2009, he was talking about buying the swiss franc, yen, euro. You pull out the charts, they all kind of go up. Before the yen collapsed and the franc went down.

Have you read Rickards book, Currency Wars? Opinions?

Gold at $1,230 now is definitely interesting. It's down 36% from its high. A 40-50% correction wouldn't be unprecedented based on history. I think if it breaks $1,100 or $1,000, that would really scare people.
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:16 AM
 
169 posts, read 192,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
I've followed Jim closely for years, since probably the late 90's, 1998, 99.

He has some great books, Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist. Investment Biker was written in, I think 92, he was talking about the problems now. I think his skill is judging country, A, B, C, D on fundamentals. Like a weight on a scale.

He's been bullish in the last year or two on Myanmar. A few years ago, maybe 2009, he was talking about buying the swiss franc, yen, euro. You pull out the charts, they all kind of go up. Before the yen collapsed and the franc went down.

Have you read Rickards book, Currency Wars? Opinions?

Gold at $1,230 now is definitely interesting. It's down 36% from its high. A 40-50% correction wouldn't be unprecedented based on history. I think if it breaks $1,100 or $1,000, that would really scare people.
Yeah, Rogers was just talking about picking up another Myanmar stock in the last few days. Was also talking about how it is still relatively difficult to invest there. Also, he is starting to get bullish on Russia (said it was the first time in his lifetime).

And yes, Rickard's Currency Wars is a good book. He was ahead of the curve in terms of discussing the concept of the current currency wars that are being waged by central banks around the world. Really sharp guy. Apparently he even has a Twitter account where he responds to people. I picked up Currency Wars used for $8-$10 on Amazon, and I think it is definitely worth the money and time.

I agree about the breakdown to $1000. Not sure if it has had its final shakeout move to really scare people, but I think it is good to be picking up some at these levels and averaging down if it moves lower. CNBC is really bearish on gold, trashing it just about every day now, so that is most likely a very bullish sign for the long term lol.
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Old 06-27-2013, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,642,348 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Box101 View Post
Let's hear your short-term forecast and 3-5 year outlook, CouponJack. You seem to have all of the answers. That way we can compare your forecast with theirs and see who is more accurate.
I'm the one with all the answers?

Who are the people on here who have all these "short term predictions" and claim to know exactly where we are headed? Not me......I take what the markets give me plus a nomimal fee and outperform the overwhelming majority of active investors out there.....

I have no short term forecast other than I have a balanced diversified portfolio of a mixture of asset classes tailored to my need, ability, and willingness to take risk. And I will rebalance accordingly and ignore the noise. That's my short term forecast....

The only people short term forecasts matter too are like I said (market timers/day/short term traders)

All those are are GUESSES (ie short term forecasts). Nothing more, nothing less....just look at the abysmal record of the people on here and their market timing predictions for proof..

Again, I'll ask you the 2 questions directly.

Which camp do you fall into. (market timers/daytraders/short term traders??)

Also, are you either 1. Naive. 2. Ignorant, 3. Lying.......in regards to believing that short term forecasts matter for long term investors..?

Answer those 2 questions and we'll have a better insight of your intentions...

I can understand if the truth is hurtful.
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Old 06-27-2013, 11:45 AM
 
2 posts, read 17,159 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Box101 View Post
Three of the best names in the business are Jim Rickards, Jim Rogers, and Charles Nenner. Nenner is more of a technical analyst, but is pretty good overall. Jim Rickards is the author of Currency Wars. And Jim Rogers of course needs no introduction at all.



All three have had interesting gold/silver commentary as of late. Nenner was forecasting a bottoming out in gold/silver prices by mid-late June, Rogers was predicting the big pullback in gold and now is buying more, and Rickards is very bullish on gold. Keep in mind they are talking about the physical metal, not paper GLD or SLV. Something else to note, Nenner does a lot of cyclical forecasting, and he is showing a major war in the next couple of years, and DOW 5000 by 2017-2018. Not saying it is going to happen exactly this way, but Nenner has had some great calls.

I remember Nenner from a CNBC interview on February 3rd 2009. He said there was about to be a substantial rally in the S&P 500 that would peak around March 9th... When the late Mark Haines asked about his accuracy he said "it's almost never wrong, if I'm wrong I'm maybe wrong by a day." Of course, that day was 838.51 and the closing price on March 9th was 676.53 which was the lowest closing price throughout the entire US financial crisis... He may have had a few great calls here and there, but in that particular instance you would have profited handsomely from doing precisely the opposite.

Link to interview: [url=http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1020388644]Nenner Cycle Signals Entry Point - CNBC[/url]
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Old 06-27-2013, 01:10 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,883 posts, read 5,866,508 times
Reputation: 2762
Quote:
Originally Posted by Box101 View Post
I agree about the breakdown to $1000. Not sure if it has had its final shakeout move to really scare people, but I think it is good to be picking up some at these levels and averaging down if it moves lower. CNBC is really bearish on gold, trashing it just about every day now, so that is most likely a very bullish sign for the long term lol.
I think sub $1,000 would really scare people. Sub $900 would really be a panic. I can see a lot of people dumping around there.

I've been thinking about buying some long dated calls, maybe Jan 14 or 15's on some gold miners. Or maybe short term calls on the GLD, if the market bottoms. I think there could be more panic to come. An awful lot of amateur money piled into gold in the last 18-24 months. I don't think they've really seen panic selling.

Down $22 now, lol. I think a protracted period under $1,200 would scare people.
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:15 PM
 
169 posts, read 192,953 times
Reputation: 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
I'm the one with all the answers?

Who are the people on here who have all these "short term predictions" and claim to know exactly where we are headed? Not me......I take what the markets give me plus a nomimal fee and outperform the overwhelming majority of active investors out there.....

I have no short term forecast other than I have a balanced diversified portfolio of a mixture of asset classes tailored to my need, ability, and willingness to take risk. And I will rebalance accordingly and ignore the noise. That's my short term forecast....

The only people short term forecasts matter too are like I said (market timers/day/short term traders)

All those are are GUESSES (ie short term forecasts). Nothing more, nothing less....just look at the abysmal record of the people on here and their market timing predictions for proof..

Again, I'll ask you the 2 questions directly.

Which camp do you fall into. (market timers/daytraders/short term traders??)

Also, are you either 1. Naive. 2. Ignorant, 3. Lying.......in regards to believing that short term forecasts matter for long term investors..?

Answer those 2 questions and we'll have a better insight of your intentions...

I can understand if the truth is hurtful.
So you have no short-term forecast yourself, yet you constantly knock everyone else on here? Simple way to solve this. Results. There is more to investing than guessing, or investing in some form of basic index fund. I have been doing this for a long time and would welcome comparing your returns to mine. I am more than happy to provide a full disclosure of my calls. It sounds like you are a passive investor who let's someone else manage your money through an index fund. Which is fine, but you're going to have very limited returns. Please elaborate if this is not true.

As for the "camp" I fall into, I am an active investor. I look for things that are cheap. I sell when they are expensive. Some investments I have had for a longer term. Just like a couple natural gas plays I have had since 2009 that have quadrupled in value, and have been paying me 10%+ along the way. I have unloaded a lot that quadrupled or quintupled since 2008-2009. RGR, SWHC BLC, GTN, TVL and SBGI. 2008-2009 was a buying opportunity of a lifetime.

To elaborate on my calls further, the only long positions I have right now are those two natural gas dividend plays. Other than that I am predominantly cash. Picked up a small short position with DOG around $29. Did not sell on the recent dip in the markets. Also, picked up first physical position in silver (Silver Eagles) around $21 and change (they sell at a premium over spot), and a very small amount of gold ( $1250 and change). If the price drops will be looking to pick up even more and will post before I do. Currently looking into some gold miners since they have been so beaten down, but am going to wait a little longer. More people have lost money on gold miners than any other investment in history. Have to be sure you get the right one.

Remember, results are what count.
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:21 PM
 
651 posts, read 858,265 times
Reputation: 320
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
I'm the one with all the answers?

Who are the people on here who have all these "short term predictions" and claim to know exactly where we are headed? Not me......I take what the markets give me plus a nomimal fee and outperform the overwhelming majority of active investors out there.....

I have no short term forecast other than I have a balanced diversified portfolio of a mixture of asset classes tailored to my need, ability, and willingness to take risk. And I will rebalance accordingly and ignore the noise. That's my short term forecast....

The only people short term forecasts matter too are like I said (market timers/day/short term traders)

All those are are GUESSES (ie short term forecasts). Nothing more, nothing less....just look at the abysmal record of the people on here and their market timing predictions for proof..

Again, I'll ask you the 2 questions directly.

Which camp do you fall into. (market timers/daytraders/short term traders??)

Also, are you either 1. Naive. 2. Ignorant, 3. Lying.......in regards to believing that short term forecasts matter for long term investors..?

Answer those 2 questions and we'll have a better insight of your intentions...

I can understand if the truth is hurtful.

I am not a short time person at all. I see the secular bull market and invest in it. When things get pushed down in price I buy it.

It's like any other person who buys anything in life.

ratio's are what works to identify what is cheap and what is expensive. In fact, your index investing or reallocation of funds IS DOING THE SAME THING. swapping overpriced (indexes that have gone up) into ones that go down (rebalancing).

If people are primarily in stocks, they did well from the stock market boom.

I am simply putting my money in the undervalued asset class and waiting. silver bullion is my preferred choice which is a great buy today, although I am waiting for a base before purchasing more.
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:29 PM
 
169 posts, read 192,953 times
Reputation: 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
I think sub $1,000 would really scare people. Sub $900 would really be a panic. I can see a lot of people dumping around there.

I've been thinking about buying some long dated calls, maybe Jan 14 or 15's on some gold miners. Or maybe short term calls on the GLD, if the market bottoms. I think there could be more panic to come. An awful lot of amateur money piled into gold in the last 18-24 months. I don't think they've really seen panic selling.

Down $22 now, lol. I think a protracted period under $1,200 would scare people.
Yeah atheistically a drop under $1000 would really get people. Hopefully it gets that low so we can back up the truck. India will be a key player. I think China has a lot more gold than they are disclosing. GLD scares me because of troubles people have had trying to convert to physical. Lots of talk out there that the paper is not fully backed. GLD is definitely better from a liquidity standpoint right now, but I am buying physical.
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Old 06-27-2013, 03:04 PM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
5,421 posts, read 6,178,831 times
Reputation: 9308
Jim Rickards, Charles Nenner, and Jim Rogers - three good names to ignore, along with all of the hacks on CNBC (although I must admit being a fan of Becky, Maria and Kelly, lol). Put down all their books and newsletters and pick up "The Intelligent Investor".
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