Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
No they are not. Charts and graphs tell you where you have been. They give you an idea of where current trends will run out of gas, which, in effect, is predicting the future.
-- History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme
( inaccurately usually attributed to Mark Twain )
If Iran goes from 2.2 million barrels to 4 million by 2017 while production from US frackers is expected to decline by 1.4 million barrels this year, it doesn't really alleviate the oversupply. On the other hand, China and India are expanding their SPRs.
If Iran goes from 2.2 million barrels to 4 million by 2017 ...
Before the sanctions were imposed on Iran, their production was only 3.7 M bbls/day. It was in long-term decline before that.
Any claims by Iran that they are going to add 2 M bbl/day in one year is political posturing.
Now, after all this time under sanctions, their already stressed-out infrastrastructure is even worse. It's not like they just open up the faucets and the oil pours out. What about the pipes from the wells to the shipping terminals? It's likely that they couldn't handle the load after years of neglect.
There is no way they can reach 3 M bbls/day without significant foreign investment. To want to sink a bunch of investment money in a country that thinks nothing of confiscating assets of foreign entities seems kinda stupid to me.
It's going to be a long slow process at best.
Now, at worst; suppose Iran blusters about how much they are going to ramp up and their OPEC competitors respond by producing at max, just what incentive will Western interests have to invest money to produce ( more ) oil that nobody wants or needs?
It wasn't that long ago they were producing 4 million barrels per day. If you look at just their exports, the lifting of the sanctions would recover most all of the decline expected from fracking closures.
It wasn't that long ago they were producing 4 million barrels per day. If you look at just their exports, the lifting of the sanctions would recover most all of the decline expected from fracking closures.
Iranian oil production hasn't reliably been North of 4 M bbl/day since the 1970s. They briefly would touch that level in the 2000's and then drop back down from that obviously unsustainable level. ( It looks a lot like they were fudging the numbers even then - fill up a few tankers, wait, ... then add those to what can really be produced ...
Your chart fails to include Iranian oil consumption which limits exports. Every year, their subsidized consumption cuts into their ability to export. I guess Persian culture doesn't include the story of eating the goose that lays the golden eggs.
One of the reasons there was no Doha agreement was that the rest of the group could see that Iran's ability to disrupt oil markets has already peaked. It may be a few more months, but the days of surplus production in the world are ending.
There's no agreement because Iran would take back their market share and oil prices would not recover. Their oil production was north of 4 mbpd for most of the 2000's.
I think that stance is as much about green-house-gas and rising sea levels as price of fuel for diesel/gas cars...
The Netherlands is already dealing with rising sea levels and has some of the most sophisticated anti-flood design/infrastructure in the world...
I am sure they only view this as getting much worse...
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
