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Unless something drastic changes the recovery from the Great Recession world-wide is so slow that bonds and inflation stay low to negative. We're still the best world-wide and even here it's super-slow. Europe's "recovery" is much worse than in the 1930s; their current depression
Unemployment is below 6% again. Nothing like the GD.
Potential_Landlord was referring to Europe's unemployment rate, also. In some European countries it is higher than 25%. Youth unemployment is often higher than 50% as they sacrifice this generation to preserve benefits for the older generations.
I sure don't think this downturn is as bad as the GD, but it WAS a depression. Any recession lasting four quarters should and has always been called that. Anyone that believes the current "official" unemployment rate isn't "manufactured" has some drugs I would like to share.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
he seems to be slightly less accurate than a coin toss.
The only thing goofier than taking picks from a guy on TV would be to listen to a prediction from someone in this forum on where something is going.
.......
The only thing goofier than taking picks from a guy on TV would be to listen to a prediction from someone in this forum on where something is going.
From someone maybe, but there are a lot of knowledgeable people here and it seems like I learn more here and the overall consensus is more likely to be accurate.
Well, how would you recommend an inexperienced investor to proceed? Trust an investment advisor? Pay large fees. I watch Cramer but make my own decisions on what to invest in. Because we are already retired and living off our investments, its a scary world out there. I also read tons of articles on Seeking Alpha. I make decisions based on dividends and safe stocks.
I appreciate Cramer for his explanation of what is going on in the market. I like his interviews with CEO's of various companies I might be considering. I like his episodes on education and diversification. I like the call in questions. As a beginner I find this helpful.
It is very difficult to go on your own and hope you don't screw up especially on a down day. Cramer can be reassuring and offer an explanation which you don't find anywhere else.
The people who are negative about Cramer must not be in a place where you depend on your investments to live. Where you don't really trust yourself to understand what is happening.
I have not found another place to get information about the market for the inexperienced investor except Cramer and Seeking Alpha. I don't follow his investment advice except when he talks about certain sectors which are good choices. I will then research his information. I do not buy his picks as I realize he is talking to people who like to trade and make a quick buck.
I am at a place in my life where safety is #1. I am in a place where quick trades are not appealing. But I think Cramer offers information which is very good for beginners and it is annoying when people trash him.
Well, how would you recommend an inexperienced investor to proceed? Trust an investment advisor? Pay large fees. I watch Cramer but make my own decisions on what to invest in. Because we are already retired and living off our investments, its a scary world out there. I also read tons of articles on Seeking Alpha. I make decisions based on dividends and safe stocks.
I appreciate Cramer for his explanation of what is going on in the market. I like his interviews with CEO's of various companies I might be considering. I like his episodes on education and diversification. I like the call in questions. As a beginner I find this helpful.
It is very difficult to go on your own and hope you don't screw up especially on a down day. Cramer can be reassuring and offer an explanation which you don't find anywhere else.
The people who are negative about Cramer must not be in a place where you depend on your investments to live. Where you don't really trust yourself to understand what is happening.
I have not found another place to get information about the market for the inexperienced investor except Cramer and Seeking Alpha. I don't follow his investment advice except when he talks about certain sectors which are good choices. I will then research his information. I do not buy his picks as I realize he is talking to people who like to trade and make a quick buck.
I am at a place in my life where safety is #1. I am in a place where quick trades are not appealing. But I think Cramer offers information which is very good for beginners and it is annoying when people trash him.
Macy
Remember that his show is for people who think they can beat the market by buying individual stocks. Very rarely does he admit that if you don't have time to study stocks, he recommends index funds. That's what everyone SHOULD be doing. The efficient market hypothesis says that nobody can beat the market. So when it comes to picking investments, don't follow Cramer's stock picks and never trust a commission-based "adviser". Commission-based advisers = conflict of interest. They sell you expensive investments. It's OK to hire a fee-only adviser to help you come up with a "game plan" -- just don't CONSTANTLY pay them to be your "asset manager". Any 3rd grader can rebalance a portfolio. That's essentially all that an asset manager does, other than talk you out of doing stupid things like selling all your stocks after a collapse like in 2008. https://pressroom.vanguard.com/conte...3.10.2014.html
How would I recommend a retired inexperienced investor to proceed? If you're conservative then perhaps the same way Cramer suggests (only about 1/3 in stocks with a focus on high dividend stocks)...
65% AGG (the total bond market)
10% XLY (Consumer Staples index)
10% IDU (Dow utilities index)
15% VOO (S&P 500 index)
From someone maybe, but there are a lot of knowledgeable people here and it seems like I learn more here and the overall consensus is more likely to be accurate.
Right, I just don't like threads being clogged with predictions of specific prices like "gold's going below $800 ... and ... Intel is a $45 stock ... " It's annoying and infantile. Generally, it's someone with an axe to grind, like they bought gold at $750 in 1980 and now they hate it or they are fully invested in Intel and they are trying to "pump."
People like bmw335xi say that they think XLE or BP might be a good thing to buy. They are predicting some price level, but that things look attractive there. I respect their opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macyny
Well, how would you recommend an inexperienced investor to proceed? ... I watch Cramer but make my own decisions ...
What you are doing is great.
I like Cramer and I like his trading strategy. The way he trades, he can make money if the stock goes up or down.
What I'm saying is that you should watch, listen and make your own decisions. Hey! ... that's what you are doing. Keep it up.
Cramer has an encyclopedic knowledge of stocks and I find him interesting and, of course, annoying.
I too, have bought stuff that he had panned and both made and lost money, but I did my own research.
I constantly hear him predict this and that and ignore him.
What I'm saying is that people that fixate on him - either agreeing with him or disagreeing with him need to get a life. It's like fixating on Rush Limbaugh.
Even if you don't think you can beat the market as Cramer says you can, studying and staying interested makes it more likely that you are going to have a nest egg. It's better to be a stock market nerd than a stereo nerd or a car nerd if that is what you like to "waste" your money on.
I'm a little bit of a coin nerd. I buy stuff and organize stuff like old coins. It's all worth something and much of it is likely to go up in value.
Someone who is always buying the latest TV or sound system or new phone or .... isn't likely to be worth as much money as I am. I know people who make 2x and 3x what I make who couldn't make it 2 months if they lost their job. I made it for around 5 years after someone gave me a felony record back in 2009. Cramer fans are likely to have reserves like that.
Unemployment is below 6% again. Nothing like the GD.
Hehe. I don't think UE has anything to do with rates but coincidentally I think you are right for the wrong reason. I recently checked on my indicators for where we are in the credit cycle. It looks like we turned the corner and the next economic boom phase is at hand. Of course some crazy event could still derail it at this early stage but barring that I think we are headed for brighter economic times and also at least stable if not rising rates, although not significantly IMO.
All private-sector credits are growing now: consumer, business and financial. The growth compensates for the reduction in borrowing by the federal government. It is still quite slow at 3.5% but the deleveraging seems finally over. Phh! This really took a long time. The last credit cycle took from 1992 to 2007 and we are starting this one even slower so here's to 20 years of happy-time for all of us. Boy we could really use it after all this misery!!! I'm not saying it will be like the late 90s again right away but we should see better growth than the last few years, eventually leading to a real boom again.
I think Cramer is right. At some point, the government will have to raise interest rates if they want to keep our treasuries attractive to foreign investors; however, a spike in interest rates will crush the housing market and the stock market, or at companies that are not selling their products globally.
I think Cramer is right. At some point, the government will have to raise interest rates if they want to keep our treasuries attractive to foreign investors; however, a spike in interest rates will crush the housing market and the stock market, or at companies that are not selling their products globally.
The Fed isn't going to allow rates to spike up. Cramer didn't say why, but he just said that he doesn't think that rates will spike up fast.
japan cut rates , europe is on the edge of entering a recession ,china cut rates , emerging markets are in a slump.
rates are under no pressure to rise
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