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I don't believe fully in the efficient market beliefs but I do believe when most of the investing public thinks things are high or low the markets tend to disappoint the majority.
What happened in '09-'10 to present then? Most people were selling and the market was collapsing. Is the guy who decided to get into the market on July 2nd, 2010 disappointed with what his portfolio looks like today?
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Originally Posted by mathjak107
that falls right inline with - you would find few folks who are not chatting about how cheap oil stocks have become.
But just because everyone is talking doesn't mean people are actually getting in. Most people are saying it is really cheap, but I want to see where it goes. Look at them today. Any stability in oil prices is producing quick 2-3% gains in these stocks. Which to me means, everyone is talking but no one is biting until their is stability.
As i said , markets tend to disappoint the majority.
When most of us see the same things on the radar and think the same way it is usually the opposite that happens.
When interest rates were high and started to come down back in the 1980's we all thought this was only a temporary dip . Well we were sooooooooo wrong.
Go to any financial forum and try to find someone not thinking the oil sector is cheap and you will be hard pressed.
when the views are so one sided that is rarely how things will end up.
even this year the majority wrote bonds off as poor choices at these levels . well the long bond is up 25% ytd . just the opposite of the common view.
I am not a contrarian but I am leery when we all see the same thing as a potential outcome.
we shall see. It looks to me like investors were just waiting for a perceived bottom. Oil is barely up today, yet all oil related companies are up significantly more. Yes everyone was talking about it, but who actually made a move?
Everyone was talking about Black Friday in October, yet Walmart shares didn't jump until the week of. Just because people are talking doesn't mean they are doing.
lol it happens, at least you had a stop. It could have very well gone the opposite direction. I want to see it go up 4 days in a row first. There is a saying I've heard from somewhere where the smart money buys on the first day, the semi-smart money buys on the second day, and the dumb money buys on the third day (which generally means on the fourth day it gaps back down to where it was on the first day). I'm not sure how much truth there is to it, but eh I tend to follow it.
I'm starting to get interested in oil. I might start accumulating with a tight stop. I want to see more buying demand.
Still nervous about oil. I wanted to see some push up for a sustained amount of time. Right now it just looks like traders messing with the futures market. Shoots, up then down, up then down. I'd really love stability around $55 for another day or two. I'm not sure this is actually the bottom though. I think we will see $50.
I bought UCO today at $11.20. Should have bought it at something lower!
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Should have bought it at something lower!
