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i think everybody has considered buying oil at the bottom. it doesnt really fit with my strategy but im open to throwing a few bucks in it if i think it can give a small bump to my return. however, if something happens where a war with iran may be on the table; im going to open a large position in oil. w successfully got the oil price to shoot up with the 2nd iraq war so its a proven strategy.
I put quite a bit of my investment funds into OIL related ETF's today. It has to go up in the next few years if history is any guide. My friends tell me I am making a mistake and to wait for the bottom, but what is the bottom?
I put quite a bit of my investment funds into OIL related ETF's today. It has to go up in the next few years if history is any guide. My friends tell me I am making a mistake and to wait for the bottom, but what is the bottom?
The 80-90s wouldn't have been your friend investing in oil. It could stay down for some time. Production is at or near an all time high and demand is falling
I'm not as sophisticated as others, but we have another reminder that oil does not follow the normal supply/demand commodity 'curve'. Politics & financial liquidity kind of wreck those things.
I think its time to gather up money and start to target assets that will outperform quickly when things turn. I like operating stocks rather than commodity funds. I got burnt a few years back (find my posts) in oil commodities, but lessons learned. I'm still long some operators, pipelines, and drillers. Very happy that my non-energy assets have continued to climb. But I'm feeling an oil buy in some months down the road.
$35 or less are coming this year imo. stay away from anything e & p and focus on those beaten down companies actually profiting from the decline like refiners.
OP here.....
"Oil" is down to $12.24. Me buying the Oil shares has proven to be a big mistake, so far at least.
You stated that your investing horizon was long term, so I wouldn't worry about short term price movements. More likely than not, the price of oil will be higher in a couple years. The problem with oil prices is they are highly influenced by collusions (i.e. OPEC) and political turmoil. I bought some UCO looking for a short term gain, held it for 4 days, and sold it for a push.
Heard something that was quite bearish, the rigs are quickly shutting down and yet production is reaching higher levels. It might be a good time to stick your toe in the water but I would start small and add if oil goes lower. I recently bought into Vanguards energy fund and will add if oil goes to 49-30- and will go all in at the 20's if reaches.
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