Quote:
Originally Posted by Opin_Yunated
I need recommendations for a portfolio allocation for my goals.
My horizon is 10-15 years (15 being the absolute latest). This is not a retirement scenario. It is a cash-out scenario. This is not a tax-deferred investment (my retirement accounts are separate).
My starting savings rate is $15,000 per year and will most likely rise.
I would think bonds make more sense than stocks, but I will defer to your expertise. I can't seem to find any good reading on this kind of situation. My risk tolerance is high I think (I do not sell ever). I am starting with $0.
|
I think that's very aggressive, but a good place to start would be energy stocks. According to the analysts at Morningstar.com, energy stocks are 27% undervalued as of 1/14/15.
Market Fair Value by Sector, Industry, Super-Sector, Index | Morningstar
The energy ETF VDE or the Vanguard Energy mutual fund (VGENX) would be a good place to start. Most stocks in the energy sector are currently rated 4 stars by Morningstar (out of 5), meaning they're a good value, but not a great value, so there is certainly possible for the sector to fall more. But it's currently the most undervalued sector of the stock market by a wide margin.
The energy sector could easily swing from undervalued to overvalued in the next few years, so it's probably not a set it and forget it investment. But based on the kinds of (probably unrealistically high) double digit returns you're looking for, it's probably the best starting point unless you are interested in creating your own portfolio of individual stocks (which I really don't recommend).
I am a pretty big fan of aggressive bond funds such as Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX...LSBDX once you hit 100K) or Dodge & Cox Global Bond (DODLX) (both of which I own myself). But I really, really don't expect bonds of any kind to return 10% or more over the next decade. I'll be happy if these funds manage 6% and thrilled if they return 8%, so I really don't think bonds are the way to go for you.
In any case, I think you'll really want to increase the amount you save to get to 300K in 10 years.