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I've been in and out of the GLD & GDX for almost 7 years now, with much success. That failure to break 1300 in the latest mini-rally could've been the nail in the coffin for this sector in the near term. The resistance points keep getting lower (1400s, 1350, 1330, 1300) and support levels keep dropping. I think gold is going to see $1,000 soon (barring any major turmoils).
So do you play the downside as well as the upside? That is, have you shorted gold miners or bought puts on them or the ETFs?
Never shorted them. I've been very lucky trading it mostly buying the dips under 1200, selling 1300, and trading NEM. I believe the long-term story but I don't think the 1140-1200 support is going to hold this time.
Never shorted them. I've been very lucky trading it mostly buying the dips under 1200, selling 1300, and trading NEM. I believe the long-term story but I don't think the 1140-1200 support is going to hold this time.
No options either? I'm just curious. You are the only other person who has posted, that I remember, that they've traded gold and the miners with any success.
I don't care if it goes up or down, only that I'm right. I just wish I was right a lot more than I am.
The gold chart is just ugly. The recent run up to 1,300 sputtered and never took out the previous high of 1,340. Looks like 1,240 will be tested again. Glad I sold most of my gold back at 1,550. I just hold my 4% as an "insurance policy" against economic unrest.
Maybe. It's also showing higher highs and higher lows since Nov and looks like it's building a base on the weeklies and the monthlies.
Coming off the Sep, 2011 highs, it's really tried to go below 1200 over and over without much conviction.
Also, since July, the dollar has been up like a rocket, but gold has just meandered about between 1200 and 1300.
Ugly is in the eye of the beholder.
Also, fundamentally, gold has just been hated for quite some time. It's often best to take a contrary stand at times like these.
Like I said; I don't have an axe to grind - with gold, up, down, I don't care. I just care about being right. It's been way too much work making money since Sep 2011. It was so easy from 2004 to 2011. ( cue the All in The Family Theme song ... ) You can't make money on sideways.
The gold chart is just ugly. The recent run up to 1,300 sputtered and never took out the previous high of 1,340. Looks like 1,240 will be tested again. Glad I sold most of my gold back at 1,550. I just hold my 4% as an "insurance policy" against economic unrest.
Does 4% even make any significant difference? Even if it shot up 20% because of a stock market crash, you'd get 0.8% of gain overall to counter -30% or worse of loss.
Does 4% even make any significant difference? Even if it shot up 20% because of a stock market crash, you'd get 0.8% of gain overall to counter -30% or worse of loss.
That's a heck of a lot better than losing another 0.8%.
In any case, gold won't shoot up any percent because of a stock market crash, or interest rates, or inflation or anything - despite what the media keeps spitting out.
Haters gonna be haters. Gold gonna do what it's gonna do. In the long run, it doesn't go up or down in real terms. In the short run, you can lose a lot of money or make a lot of money.
Ironically, most of the people who accidentally make a lot of money because of lucky timing, turn around and lose it like casino visitors.
Look at Big-Bucks' chart that shows the great basing action in gold from Jun 2013 to date. Anyone who made money from Feb 10 to Sep 11 who wasn't already playing the gold market for many years, most likely lost it all as it went down the "waterfall" from Aug 12 to Jun 13.
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