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I wouldn't touch the stock market where it's at. Overvalued and full of fluff. Shorted DJI for the 2nd time in my life today. 1st time I ever beat the house.
Doesn't it look like a bear market is taking hold? Equities have nowhere else to go. Growth opportunity going forward is looking limited. Corporate profits have declined. All indicators point to a stagnant (at best) economy.
I posted this in another thread but I find it has more relevance here
Quote:
We are due a decent correction and one could argue that due to such high P/Es and the recent trend of boom/bust cycle the correction should be more of a crash.
Volume has steadily declined since 2008 until its about 1/5th of what the daily average in the years before then. This entire bull market has been driven by steadily weaker volume. That it has went on so long is strange to me. Makes me think that something fundamental about the way the market works has changed. That and the last several correction indicators have failed to deliver lead me to believe that there is something artificial sustaining the current bull. I dunno what that is. Could be a function of the HFT barage that has grown rapidly around the same timeline. I dunno, someone with more knowledge about that would have to opine.
I believe the current run up is well above the average without a major correction in both breadth and time.
Many corporations are fudging their profit numbers with creative accounting.
Board members are lining their pockets by using company cash to buy back stocks instead of seeking growth and development.
I feel we are past due for a correction but I wouldn't bet on one happening right now, not in this market. We might be seeing the start now, but it could very well be just a chance to buy the dip. Greece or China could be, and probably will be, the trigger but I wouldn't bet against the current trend.
Quote:
Originally Posted by viktorka
Volatility is still low, trading volume is still low - there are not panic selling yet. By saying that I have also say that each bear market starts from a simple correction. We have just to watch.
Exactly what I am watching also.
Quote:
Originally Posted by viktorka
When we have increase in volume (S&P 500 average daily volume is about 20% lover than its average volume at the end of 2007) and or increase in volatility (14-day S&P 500 Absolute ATR move closer to 2%), then we may start to worry about market weakening into a bearish action.
At this point it is too early to speculate about recession or crash.
My above quoted post from the other thread brings up the same point, just stated a different way. I am not ready to bet against this market yet. I need to see some signs of life first. Its very strange to me the way volume has melted lower for so long. Usually a divergence between the price and volume like that leads to a correction/trend change earlier.
My concern is if the Greece situation should be viewed as a crystal ball to other QE dependend economies in the future. Greece is at the end of the road and did not & cannot grow out of financial woes. China is stimulating to keep from going into a freefall although the Chinese have been stimulating fake growth for years. Time to pay the piper??
The US is trading at higher multiples and cannot get off the QE tigtrope either without toppling. I guess the answers of is the growth for real or not will be answered in pieces in time suggesting a slower decline then a complete skydive.
Yesterday's computer glitches at United and the NYSE should give a wake up call of what would happen if it was a terrorist attack and what would you do?
I sold it yesterday. Purchased the day prior. You misread what I wrote. Nowhere did I state I placed a large "bet".
I'm more of a day trader than a traditional investor. I do well when volatility spikes.
Another poster picked up the beat the house as bet the house and if you went full turn yesterday why didn't you say that in your first post or since you are actively posting in the thread about real time trades you didn't post it there either
Another poster picked up the beat the house as bet the house and if you went full turn yesterday why didn't you say that in your first post or since you are actively posting in the thread about real time trades you didn't post it there either
I day trade for dough, not for show.
I also work 50 hours a week, and have other crap going on. So keeping you abreast of my most recent trades is not on my list of priorities at the moment.
I also work 50 hours a week, and have other crap going on. So keeping you abreast of my most recent trades is not on my list of priorities at the moment.
I didn't ask you to keep me abreast but I do find the one sided taking interesting
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