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Okay, this is true, it's hard to time the market, but there has to exist a time when one should not buy and should buy. It's like with Stocks, nobody knows what to do until AFTER it's happened.
This is why I don't think it's fair to say you can compare the planning procedures with operating a business with the stock market. Operating a business is all about what's about to happen and using those predictions to forecast ROI, stocks are all about what's already happened and using that previous data to some how say that what already happened will just magically happen again
I think the majority of the time you can be long or short in the market. However, choppy times like right it's better to sit on the sidelines (if you aren't a long-term investor). The break below the 200 day was a great time to go short, we found potential bottom, you should cover any shorts now. If we test that bottom again and it goes below, I would start another short position. If it bounces again, then I would buy a position.
Past performances for a business is more reliable than past performances of a stock. If your business has seen its revenue increase 5% every year, it is highly unlikely that the next year you'll see your revenue drop 50-60%. With that being said, I do think historical charts matter with stocks and that it's better to trade based on the current price movement rather than predicting what it will do 6 months from now.
bmw. you clearly have great instincts and feel for the market. You sound just like the traders on CNBC I listen to all day long.
Do you work at anything, or just trade for your own account? Clearly, you could earn a living doing that.
Also, from what I've heard on CNBC, most of the 'rich' guys allocate only part of their capital to the market and keep most of it 'safe.' As Cramer has said, "you only need to get rich once."
Fwiw, my VWINX is only down .825% for the year. For a $3M account, that's still $25,350 - not nothing, but a heck of a lot better than $253K.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 09-01-2015 at 09:55 PM..
bmw. you clearly have great instincts and feel for the market. You sound just like the traders on CNBC I listen to all day long.
Do you work at anything, or just trade for your own account? Clearly, you could earn a living doing that.
Also, from what I've heard on CNBC, most of the 'rich' guys allocate only part of their capital to the market and keep most of it 'safe.' As Cramer has said, "you only need to get rich once."
Fwiw, my VWINX is only down .825% for the year. For a $3M account, that's still $25,350 - not nothing, but a heck of a lot better than $253K.
If you follow the "traders" on CNBC, you will grow broke in a short time.
I think the thing is, once you hit critical mass, there's just not that need to be super aggressive. Preserve the 3 million. Don't go back below critical mass.
If you follow the "traders" on CNBC, you will grow broke in a short time.
Preserve the 3 million. Don't go back below critical mass.
LOL - indeed. Well, I don't have $3M, not anywhere close. Only used that number b/c it was referenced earlier. And, indeed, if I "followed" I surely would go broke. But, I didn't say that - what I said was I "listen" - and I surely do not trade.
Although, I will say Carter Worth saved my bacon in very early 2008. Was working at the time at a "job" - just dutifully contributing to my 401k. But started taping Fast Money b/c I was getting nervous about the market. Thanks to Carter and one of his charts, I went to cash the very next day and did not experience any damage in the calamity that followed. For an 'investor' like me, that was a lucky and profitable night. Lost my job in 2009, with 401k intact and in cash.
My point is bmw appears to have sound instincts on how to profitably navigate the market whether it's up or down. His comments on this thread and others are very similar to what I hear every day from the professional tech guys and the traders - who do make their livings - and very profitable ones, at that - doing what they do.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 09-02-2015 at 12:05 AM..
bmw. you clearly have great instincts and feel for the market. You sound just like the traders on CNBC I listen to all day long.
Do you work at anything, or just trade for your own account? Clearly, you could earn a living doing that.
Also, from what I've heard on CNBC, most of the 'rich' guys allocate only part of their capital to the market and keep most of it 'safe.' As Cramer has said, "you only need to get rich once."
Fwiw, my VWINX is only down .825% for the year. For a $3M account, that's still $25,350 - not nothing, but a heck of a lot better than $253K.
Thanks!
I've been in the market a long time and learned from my mistakes, but the stock market is a never ending learning process. I used to work as a mortgage loan originator and have my real estate license, but I've made trading my primary focus as of lately. I do some little side things as well , so I can keep reinvesting my gains. I'm not a fan of the talking heads on CNBC, but I don't really listen to them much, so maybe they say some good things other than the articles I read on Yahoo Finance lol. I used to watch Cramer, some of his shows actually give good advice for novice investors (not talking specific stock picks, just general advice). I feel when you are young or have a small amount to invest or trade, you should be more aggressive. The older you get or the higher your account becomes, the less aggressive you should be.
LOL - indeed. Well, I don't have $3M, not anywhere close. Only used that number b/c it was referenced earlier. And, indeed, if I "followed" I surely would go broke. But, I didn't say that - what I said was I "listen" - and I surely do not trade.
Although, I will say Carter Worth saved my bacon in very early 2008. Was working at the time at a "job" - just dutifully contributing to my 401k. But started taping Fast Money b/c I was getting nervous about the market. Thanks to Carter and one of his charts, I went to cash the very next day and did not experience any damage in the calamity that followed. For an 'investor' like me, that was a lucky and profitable night. Lost my job in 2009, with 401k intact and in cash.
My point is bmw appears to have sound instincts on how to profitably navigate the market whether it's up or down. His comments on this thread and others are very similar to what I hear every day from the professional tech guys and the traders - who do make their livings - and very profitable ones, at that - doing what they do.
I really believe technical analysis is important to know, even if you aren't an active trader. It teaches you a lot about the psychology of the market and allows you to keep a cool head during turbulent times. There is money to be made in both bull and bear markets, but the change in between is the time where it's best to sit out unless you are day trading or strictly a long-term investor.
I've been in the market a long time and learned from my mistakes, but the stock market is a never ending learning process. I used to work as a mortgage loan originator and have my real estate license, but I've made trading my primary focus as of lately. I do some little side things as well , so I can keep reinvesting my gains. I'm not a fan of the talking heads on CNBC, but I don't really listen to them much, so maybe they say some good things other than the articles I read on Yahoo Finance lol. I used to watch Cramer, some of his shows actually give good advice for novice investors (not talking specific stock picks, just general advice).
Thanks for the background. I sold (and invested in) real estate off and on until 2000. Way back in the 70's, mortgage originators were making tons of bucks, here. Especially for the times. My son has friend who has been doing that now for a long time - has some very good years, some lean years. Has a working wife w/a great career - no kids - so, they're doing just fine.
Can't say I'm a huge fan of anyone on CNBC, but I do pick up a tip here and there which has helped. And a big shoutout to mathjak from whom I've learned tons. My portfolio (mutual funds) is still in the black for 2015 - but just barely. I don't listen to Cramer much b/c he talks too fast and swallows his words - may tune in for the first 5-10 mins once in a while. I do like Art Cashin, and seriously miss Mark Haines who died a few years ago. There was never any bs with him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
I feel when you are young or have a small amount to invest or trade, you should be more aggressive. The older you get or the higher your account becomes, the less aggressive you should be.
Very sound thinking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
I really believe technical analysis is important to know, even if you aren't an active trader. It teaches you a lot about the psychology of the market and allows you to keep a cool head during turbulent times. There is money to be made in both bull and bear markets, but the change in between is the time where it's best to sit out unless you are day trading or strictly a long-term investor.
Yes, indeed. I was an office manager in the 70's for a small investment advisory firm. We hired a very talented analyst right out of business school who spent endless time on his charts. This was before 'real' technology. Needless to say, he became very well-to-do in short order. He was a great stock picker. Technical analysis matters. Gotta say, having lived through 2008-09 - watching the market crater and come back - helps, as well. That's why I value old birds like Art Cashin - they keep things real.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 09-02-2015 at 01:10 AM..
this is a point i try to get across to the newbees .after a while it isn't the percentage of the drop it is the dollars as you get more and more .
my 50/50 mix has evaporated the last almost 8 years of my 401k contributions not only at max but at catch up max.
that is a small percentage drop but an insane amount of dollers .
i saw in the flash crash in the first few minutes i was down almost 100k .
the newbee who goes we are not down that much percentage does not understand the fact that the dollars i would be down is the equal to him being down 90%.
so the bottom line is i don't care how seasoned of an investor you are , when those losses are in the 6 figures in the drops it hits you . not that you would bail out but the dollars mean a whole lot more as you get more .
Perhaps, but while I don't have as much invested as BMW I do have about half that, so I lost 20-25k in this most recent pullback and it didn't bother me a bit. I doubt if it were double or triple that it would have bothered me either. The reason for me is that I know I won't need that money for at least 25 years. So to me it is the time horizon, not seeing my current account go down. What is the probability that my current investments will be worth less now than 25 years from now? If the answer is very very low, why should I care about now. Now if I were going to need the money in 5-7 years then volatility becomes a concern.
It could also be that BMW plans to start drawing down some of this to supplement his income as I doubt most of this is in traditional retirement accounts given his day trading.
As a side my favorite investment throughout this market turmoil has been my 30k in Publix Supermarkets. Why? Because it is privately held and they only update their stock prices once a quarter. This way I don't have to see what someone would be willing to pay me for share of a company day in and day out. I have no plans to sell, so it is really irrelevant unless the business fundamentally changes.
So many of you already know me here and how I focus on trading my account. However, my account has grown to a size I no longer want to actively trade the entire amount anymore. I want to move a large part of my account into a more conservative investment plan. I'll be 28 years old in October. I plan to keep these until I retire, but might withdraw some dividends every now and then. I was thinking about buying these two mutual funds:
VWENX -Vanguard Wellington Admiral Fund(50%)
VWIAX -Vanguard Wellesley Income Admiral Fund(50%)
What do you think? Thanks!
It seems like either/or would suffice, but it's fine. As Mathjak said, the holdings will be very similar. The main thing is it evens out the stock bond mix between the two to about 52.5%/47.5%. If you like that stock/bond allocation, then go for it.
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