Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm thinking that a 20% reduction is in the cards, and starting soon.
* Even Wal Mart is getting hammered today.
* The world economy stinks
* The fed seems ready to raise rates
* Russians in Syria. Iran in Syria. Obama sitting around clueless.
Wal Mart is concerning if the slowdown is due to consumers pulling back. My other thought (I do not follow WMT at all so take what I say with a grain of salt) is that WMT was priced for perfection and the guidance wasn't achievable. I really should not be talking since I have not looked at any WMT numbers or done any DD on it. Just my initial guesses.
I'm thinking that a 20% reduction is in the cards, ...
Tell me why I'm wrong
Why? Because you don't have a history of being right?
(1) That could mean that you have never predicted a big reduction before ...
... < or > ...
(2) that could mean that you have predicted such a reduction before and it's almost never been right before.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(1) is an absence of predictions, so no one has anything to go on.
(2) is a preponderance of bad predictions so others can predict that you can't predict.
Can you point to any previous predictions?
I guess you have to start somewhere. If you are correct here, then you have to do it again and be correct twice in a row. As long as you make correct predictions, say, 2/3rds of the time, then I would stop telling you why you were wrong.
Why? Because you don't have a history of being right?
(1) That could mean that you have never predicted a big reduction before ...
... < or > ...
(2) that could mean that you have predicted such a reduction before and it's almost never been right before.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(1) is an absence of predictions, so no one has anything to go on.
(2) is a preponderance of bad predictions so others can predict that you can't predict.
Can you point to any previous predictions?
I guess you have to start somewhere. If you are correct here, then you have to do it again and be correct twice in a row. As long as you make correct predictions, say, 2/3rds of the time, then I would stop telling you why you were wrong.
I'm making a prediction with a little bit of analysis included.
What is your post trying to do?
I'm thinking that a 20% reduction is in the cards, and starting soon.
* Even Wal Mart is getting hammered today.
* The world economy stinks
* The fed seems ready to raise rates
* Russians in Syria. Iran in Syria. Obama sitting around clueless.
Tell me why I'm wrong
*A stock gets 'hammered', and you decide that a 20% drop is looming - and you can't figure out the faulty logic therein?
*Aside from the astute 'stinks' label, that's pretty much described the global economy for a number of years now - so this particular snapshot in time is nothing special.
*And?
*Somehow, you've decided that Russian mucking around in some half-assed Middle Eastern country that means precisely zero to the American economy - plus the fact that you don't like Obama - means a 20% drop. And you expect to be taken seriously?
A crash can always happen, there doesn't need to be a good reason for it... What will keep the market down is if the economy genuinely weakens, which appears to be happening although the extent isn't clear. The strong dollar has caused a problems for manufactures, but economic weakness isn't too pronounced aside from that... It is looking like the fed might pass on December, but it is still too early to tell. We may be looking at a March liftoff.
I'm making a prediction with a little bit of analysis included.
What is your post trying to do?
I was trying to establish whether you have a track record of calling the market.
I realize you posted your reasons, but I never care what anyone predicts.
For instance, where were you when the market took a dump after Jun, 2011? How about Jun 2008?
You asked me why you are wrong and I said what I thought. People here post all the time that they knew that the market was going to crash in 2008, but unless they posted here about it before hand, it's worth what I paid to find out that they knew that was going to happen.
Even if someone makes a good case for buying or selling something that I agree with, once they start telling the forum that such-and-such is going up or down 10% in some timeframe of weeks or months, or whatever, I just don't care.
I decided to comment on this in your OP:
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
* Russians in Syria. Iran in Syria. Obama sitting around clueless.
Did you hear that they are moving their aircraft carrier offshore of Syria?
They are moving a decrepit old POS over there. It's the only one they have. They should be careful, or we might move 2 or 3 of ours in the "neighborhood." Oh wait ... they are already there.
I'm not saying any of that is good, but I'm struggling to figure out how that is something that is going to make the overall stock market heavy.
Hopefully, the Kuznetsov doesn't break down on the way over there. That would be embarrassing.
I was trying to establish whether you have a track record of calling the market.
I realize you posted your reasons, but I never care what anyone predicts.
For instance, where were you when the market took a dump after Jun, 2011? How about Jun 2008?
You asked me why you are wrong and I said what I thought. People here post all the time that they knew that the market was going to crash in 2008, but unless they posted here about it before hand, it's worth what I paid to find out that they knew that was going to happen.
Even if someone makes a good case for buying or selling something that I agree with, once they start telling the forum that such-and-such is going up or down 10% in some timeframe of weeks or months, or whatever, I just don't care.
I decided to comment on this in your OP:
Did you hear that they are moving their aircraft carrier offshore of Syria?
They are moving a decrepit old POS over there. It's the only one they have. They should be careful, or we might move 2 or 3 of ours in the "neighborhood." Oh wait ... they are already there.
I'm not saying any of that is good, but I'm struggling to figure out how that is something that is going to make the overall stock market heavy.
Hopefully, the Kuznetsov doesn't break down on the way over there. That would be embarrassing.
It's difficult to predict what's going to happen in the financial markets since markets are not necessarily correlated to the underlying economies; however, given the lack of GDP growth, despite low oil prices, it could indicate that when oil prices rise, assuming they rise dramatically due to a supply shock and stay elevated for some time, it could ignite a recession that will be echoed throughout the financial markets.
I also think that you're underestimating the Russian military. Who do you think stole your Scottrade account number or has your bank account information? Have you considered that Russia may engage in asymmetric warfare and attack our financial system?
Imagine the damage they can cause without firing a shot. It's also possible that state owned Lukoil may be pumping oil at record levels in an attempt to bankrupt American shale oil producers, knowing that there is over $500 Billion of liabilities at risk. You can thank your idiot state department for starting an economic war with Russia by colluding with the Saudi's who may or may not be in the process of betraying the United States. Given that speculation in large part drives the commodity markets, I'm unsure about this; however, a recent headline suggests that they are attempting to raise the price through media control to a level that can restore some solvency to oil producers without causing a significant strain on the underlying economy.
Do you think the Federal Reserve, holding trillions of dollars of bad debt, will be able to take on potentially another trillion dollars worth of debt?
Possibly, but I doubt it will matter to investors, or program traders using algorithms will not only sell their shares, but turn their machines off and significantly decrease liquidity, which will exacerbate the situation.
Will this happen? I don't know, but it's naïve to think it's impossible.
.... I also think that you're underestimating the Russian military. ....
Imagine the damage they can cause without firing a shot. ... deletia ...
Yeah, all that stuff is true, but it doesn't have anything to do with the OP :
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
...
* Russians in Syria. Iran in Syria. ...
I was just making fun of the idea of displaying power with their old aircraft carrier.
You also act like they are the only game in town. They didn't invent Stuxnet. Now that's a mean bit of cyber warfare.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
