Dow and S&P 500 now into positive territory for 2016 (Fidelity, invest)
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Corporate buy backs are supporting the market right now. Retail and institutional investors are still skittish.
Wouldn't a genuine contrarian regard this as a "buy" signal? It's when everyone is convinced that stocks are invincible, that ominous clouds are gathering. But when the commentators, the general public and the so-called experts are shrieking that the rally's phony, the market is rigged and disaster is impending - well, isn't that a textbook contrarian signal?
it sure is a contrarian signal . markets are not in bubbles when there is so much money not in it because we all see the same crappy view . bubbles are when you hear the women at the beauty parlor discussing trades like in 2000
bubbles are when you hear the women at the beauty parlor discussing trades like in 2000
In 1999 I visited the small Midwestern town where I grew up. It's quite common for small businesses to have a television in the public area, and when I was a kid these would typically be tuned to a soap opera, a ball game, etc. But on that visit I noticed that most of them were tuned to CNBC. In particular, I recall visiting a glass shop where the proprietor kept stealing looks at the ticker. The thirst for stock gains was palpable.
In 1999 I visited the small Midwestern town where I grew up. It's quite common for small businesses to have a television in the public area, and when I was a kid these would typically be tuned to a soap opera, a ball game, etc. But on that visit I noticed that most of them were tuned to CNBC. In particular, I recall visiting a glass shop where the proprietor kept stealing looks at the ticker. The thirst for stock gains was palpable.
Everyone now is hungry for a crash. If too many people head for the door at the same time even the FED's printing press can't prop it up. Or if they do watch out for unintended consequences.
what leaves people poorer is these vision's in their head of what can happen but never does so they avoid growing their money .
in their heads we are either in a bubble or markets are plunging and going to hell so they never or rarely act . they want signs we are getting better . but markets recover long before their are any signs , and so they are waiting for the next crash in their heads , which of course even if it happened they wouldn't commit much money to , and odds are it ain't happening any way .
time and time again they are wrong and end up not growing the resources they should over time as they always are waiting for that other proverbial shoe to fall
Last edited by mathjak107; 03-22-2016 at 11:32 AM..
what leaves people poorer is the vision in their head of what can happen but never does so they avoid growing their money .
we are either in a bubble in their head or markets are plunging and going to hell so they never or rarely act .
time and time they are wrong and end up not growing the resources they should over time
What direction are things headed? We've had a 30 year debt bubble. Dropping rates for 30 years. Now we are at zero. Do we continue negative? Or do we reset? What do negative rates look like? Unknown. What does a reset look like? Unknown.
People are out of known territory. So they sit.
I want to dig gold up, not buy it. Doing something productive with your assets. Paper gains are good on paper. Real tangible gains is what I'm hungry for.
i don't care to predict , never did never will . i grew a lot of money just accepting what the markets hand me year after year . the portfolio gets adjusted like nudging a big ship to keep it on course as the big picture changes .
i bought a speculative position in gld , very small though in the scheme of things .
There's no such thing as "real tangible gains". They've not existed since the rise of industrial capitalism, circa 1800. Nothing has intrinsic value… not gold, not clean water, not food, not real estate. Prices fluctuate according to perceptions. Those who are terrified of an impending crash have nowhere to hide. Join a cult, bequeath all of your money to the cult-leader, and take a vow of poverty.
What direction are things headed? I have no idea. When are people NOT "out of known territory"? If the territory were known, we'd be trading accordingly. And then so would everyone else, until conditions are changed by the very act of trading, and the evolving territory is no longer known.
And who is this "everyone", who is "hungry for a crash"? Five million retirees or near-retirees with 7-figure portfolios? Something like one out of 20 or 30 American adults is a millionaire. Where are those people going to put their money? Are they all hungry for a crash?
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