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Just remember folks that most people don't sell on the way up.
The 20 year/$30 trillion debt accumulation run in China is over. And that means it's over for a lot of companies, ranging from the tech sector to energy/materials, to banks across the world.
We haven't seen any real selling in the last 7 years. Remember that when the S&P is trading sub-1500 within a year.
You can pretend it doesn't matter because the Dow will be 3x or 4x higher in 30 years anyway (ha ha). I don't buy that. We're in an economic shift like we haven't seen before. Population growth could sustain 2-5% GDP last century. Now, with flat pop. growth and an aging demographic globally, China is even encouraging more babies because they see the writing on the wall. It's deflation from here on out. 2008 could've been the end of the show, but the Fed/bailouts really did save the market. . I don't see that happening again (and one reason the banks are so weak). A lot of investors are being arrogant but you saw the whites of their eyes in '09. This shall repeat itself. This deflation/deleveraging that's coming is going to teach people what money really is and where it comes from.
Last edited by Howard Beale; 03-31-2016 at 09:03 AM..
Just remember folks that most people don't sell on the way up. The 20 year/$30 trillion debt accumulation run in China is over. And that means it's over for a lot of companies, ranging from the tech sector to energy/materials, to banks across the world.
We haven't seen any real selling in the last 9 years. Remember that when the S&P is trading sub-1500 within a year.
You can pretend it doesn't matter because the Dow will be 3x or 4x higher in 30 years anyway (ha ha). I don't buy that. We're in an economic shift like we haven't seen before. Population growth could sustain 2-5% GDP last century. Now, with flat pop. growth and an aging demographic globally, China is even encouraging more babies because they see the writing on the wall. It's deflation from here on out. 2008 could've been the end of the show, but the Fed/bailouts really did save the market. . I don't see that happening again (and one reason the banks are so weak). A lot of investors are being arrogant but you saw the whites of their eyes in '09. This shall repeat itself. This deflation/deleveraging that's coming is going to teach people what money really is and where it comes from.
That sounds very similiar to what the crazy people on street corners say when they hold the signs and yell "the end is nigh!". You just have to replace the fed with god and deflation/deleveraging with the end of the world.
"I am planning to be a defense contractor and help my country too but future looks volatile."
LOL . I used to be one. There's a lot of waste, redundancy, and fraud in the business, especially in period like the present where there's much more money being spent than the availalbility of real talent. The money for defense-related spending is also spread out to other departments. Much of it's moved to terrorism in the last decade where most of my extended family is trying to seek shelter from competitive pressures of jobs. I thought you were older than 22. You give yourself away.
"I am planning to be a defense contractor and help my country too but future looks volatile."
LOL . I used to be one. There's a lot of waste, redundancy, and fraud in the business, especially in period like the present where there's much more money being spent than the availalbility of real talent. The money for defense-related spending is also spread out to other departments. Much of it's moved to terrorism in the last decade where most of my extended family is trying to seek shelter from competitive pressures of jobs. I thought you were older than 22. You give yourself away.
I am.
Yes, of course there are certain elements of bureaucracy, fraud and corruption but overall i think situation is better compared to other departments
I think there'll be window of opportunity as army focuses on not losing people and getting more mechanized and software oriented.
Hell if i can get even $1M funding out of this $600B budget it'd be so huge you have no idea
Private industry is not gonna be in a spending spree for a number of years.
Another day, another bunch of comments from the Fed chairman.
Inflation low, no reason to raise rates.
The game continues.
The can has been kicked down the road.
The garbage was in your post, not Mrs. Yellen's speech. Rather than blaming others for your life's issues how about you start to improve your understanding?
These things are not in my control : GDP growth, interest rates, inflation, demographics...etc.
What can we do sometimes
I wish you and your husband happy retirements.
Hope you're doing ok and so nice to have people like you here
Just think whatever business you're considering through to the nth degree before you start out. My husband and I both started our own legal practices. First - my husband supported me when I started mine. And then I supported him when he started his. A good way to do things - but most people don't have that luxury. Still - the cash outflows at the beginning - with no money coming in - were scary.
And there are all kinds of businesses. For example - I'd rather start a plumbing business where I live today than open a restaurant . Robyn
the visions in our heads of the what if's are like the visions gold bugs have of everything turning to crap and they are last man standing .
the reality is so far it has not happened that markets hit a bottom and didn't recover fairly quick . they may trade sideways after retracing for a while , maybe even many years but so far falling and staying down has never been a problem . even the great depression actually had stocks recovering in just under 6 years in dollar terms .
that isn't to say it can't happen , anything is possible , but it is these kind of visions that have left people poorer then had they just went with what was , what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing .
just keep a plan b that may work in the back of your head but sometimes it is impossible to have a plan b .
it is like what if you have a portfolio full of long term bonds , little else and high inflation strikes ? that did happen in 1965/1966 .
You criticize young people for being skeptical about the stock market. But you have your personal bug-a-boos when it comes to bonds. You're still fighting the inflation wars from a long long time ago. Reckon you have been every bit as stupid about bonds are some people have been about stocks. In terms of not locking in yields in individual bonds for long periods of time when yields were higher.
I remember when I first started to manage my father's money about 10 years ago. And he started to give me lip about buying 20-30 year AAA munis at 5%+ with 10 year calls. He would mumble "inflation this - inflation that". And I told him I never wanted to hear from him again when it came to investments. And that he was always free to fire me and hire someone else to manage his money. He shut up. And I haven't heard a peep from him in recent years - because his investment returns have been great. Robyn
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