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Darn right; they can read from Dr Suess if they want, as long as the market goes up! Of course, we now will be treated to all the links and charts showing how we are heading toward disaster.
As long as the market goes up? What if it doesn't? In the long run. What if it just keeps going up and down and up and down and up and down. With little upward progress. Do you have a game plan for that? Other than working until you're 80 . Robyn
Trust me..... we will roll back. Markets always correct, we had one a few months ago, and we will have another one. Probably sooner than anyone thinks.
As long as the market goes up? What if it doesn't? In the long run. What if it just keeps going up and down and up and down and up and down. With little upward progress. Do you have a game plan for that? Other than working until you're 80 . Robyn
the visions in our heads of the what if's are like the visions gold bugs have of everything turning to crap and they are last man standing .
the reality is so far it has not happened that markets hit a bottom and didn't recover fairly quick . they may trade sideways after retracing for a while , maybe even many years but so far falling and staying down has never been a problem . even the great depression actually had stocks recovering in just under 6 years in dollar terms .
that isn't to say it can't happen , anything is possible , but it is these kind of visions that have left people poorer then had they just went with what was , what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing .
just keep a plan b that may work in the back of your head but sometimes it is impossible to have a plan b .
it is like what if you have a portfolio full of long term bonds , little else and high inflation strikes ? that did happen in 1965/1966 .
Last edited by mathjak107; 03-30-2016 at 03:03 PM..
As long as the market goes up? What if it doesn't? In the long run. What if it just keeps going up and down and up and down and up and down. With little upward progress. Do you have a game plan for that? Other than working until you're 80 . Robyn
I actually retired 2 years ago; so much for me working until 80. Our retirement investments are pretty well set, just occasionally sell a stock that I think is fully valued and move into a different one. I'm not staying up nights worrying that the market may start the slide into oblivion the next day.
As far as the market going up and down and up and down; I love it. The last three months have been great in the non-retirement account. The overreaction by the market on a stock can lead to some very nice short term trading gains.
I am one of the oldest Boomers (close to 69) - and my husband is so old he isn't a Boomer. How old are you? What do you do? In all honesty - I think the best advice I can give to younger people is to concentrate on one's profession/career/job/business. So you can maximize your earnings. And then save a bunch of it. The more money you earn - the lazier your money can be when you get older. I dabbled in the markets a little when I was young - in the 70's. With no great success. My husband - who made most of our money - was never interested in the subject at all (still isn't).
I didn't really start to learn a lot and invest somewhat intelligently until the 80's - when I was about 40 and stopped working. And things were honestly a no-brainer then. AAA munis at 9-10%. Long term treasury zero coupon bonds at 10-15%+ in IRAs. Even plain old 5 year CDs were 5-6-7% or even better. Duh. Everything is a ton harder now when it comes to investments IMO. And I am SO glad this investment climate has come closer to the end of my investing life than the beginning. So I go back to plan A for younger people. Concentrating on professions/careers/jobs/businesses. Earning and saving. And perhaps putting the savings in some safe lower yielding things (tuck them away and forget about them until you have the time to study investments more carefully).
I really don't see anything wrong with that approach. Then again - I'm not a guy who's into the "mine is bigger/better/whatever" approach. I'm just a woman who's looking at things long term. Robyn
Let me start with the Vietnam War. It was not peanuts. Tens of thousands of young people died, many tens of thousands were physically or mentally injured. Be happy you are not starting your life with 2 years of military service under those conditions.
After Vietnam, I moved to Cleveland so my wife could finish her degree. With or without a degree, unemployment was over 20%. No one would even take an application. There was no internet so searching for jobs nationally was an issue. Of course so was moving without any money.
Apparently you are too young to have seen high inflation or high interest rates. They are devastating. They erode your assets and your salary will not keep up. If you are very lucky and your salary keeps up, then the progressive income taxes will bite you.
Investment returns have never been consistent. There have always been Black Fridays, dot com busts and other corrections. I cannot complain about the past few years. The only bust has been the oil boom. Most businesses are doing well and sitting on piles of cash.
Young man, these are the good old days and they have never been better....at least for someone with a degree. Without advanced skills and without a degree, opportunities are getting worse and are likely to continue to worsen.
What kind of snippy tone is that to take with someone you don't even know? To be sure - some generations have it worse on the whole than other generations. But - since my 97 year old father - a child of the Great Depression - is still alive - I think most of us would have to defer to him and others in his generation in terms of worst childhood/young adulthood experiences. At least in general.
When it comes to people in my generation (early boomer) - well most men I know didn't go to Vietnam (upper middle or higher class men). Was Vietnam a FUBAR thing? Sure. But it didn't affect just about anyone I know personally. Also - people like me - lawyers - found it relatively easy to get good jobs then - even during the '73-'74 recession. Today - you're probably better off becoming a plumber than a lawyer.
When it comes to the inflation in the 70's and early 80's - it wasn't an issue for me and my husband - at the start of our careers. Because - although inflation was going up a lot - our incomes were going up a lot more. It was an issue for retired people in my father's generation - and my parents. Especially when it came to putting their youngest kids through school. College education expenses are even a bigger albatross these days for younger adults with kids in college.
When it comes to younger people today - I have seen issues with young nieces/nephews in terms of not only employment - but COL too. Like a niece getting an MBA that is costing her $50k+/year - and living in a $3k/month Los Angeles apartment that she shares with another student. When she was living in NYC and working - she was earning $60k/year - and spending close to $3k/month on rent. Maybe she'll do better in terms of earnings/COL after she finishes her MBA. I have also noticed that our next door neighbors both have their college educated 30ish year old kids living with them now. So - apparently - they can't earn enough to support themselves. Robyn
I actually retired 2 years ago; so much for me working until 80. Our retirement investments are pretty well set, just occasionally sell a stock that I think is fully valued and move into a different one. I'm not staying up nights worrying that the market may start the slide into oblivion the next day.
As far as the market going up and down and up and down; I love it. The last three months have been great in the non-retirement account. The overreaction by the market on a stock can lead to some very nice short term trading gains.
Do you have a pension and/or large SS? Or do you rely primarily on your investments for living expenses? Robyn
I am one of the oldest Boomers (close to 69) - and my husband is so old he isn't a Boomer. How old are you? What do you do? In all honesty - I think the best advice I can give to younger people is to concentrate on one's profession/career/job/business. So you can maximize your earnings. And then save a bunch of it. The more money you earn - the lazier your money can be when you get older. I dabbled in the markets a little when I was young - in the 70's. With no great success. My husband - who made most of our money - was never interested in the subject at all (still isn't).
I didn't really start to learn a lot and invest somewhat intelligently until the 80's - when I was about 40 and stopped working. And things were honestly a no-brainer then. AAA munis at 9-10%. Long term treasury zero coupon bonds at 10-15%+ in IRAs. Even plain old 5 year CDs were 5-6-7% or even better. Duh. Everything is a ton harder now when it comes to investments IMO. And I am SO glad this investment climate has come closer to the end of my investing life than the beginning. So I go back to plan A for younger people. Concentrating on professions/careers/jobs/businesses. Earning and saving. And perhaps putting the savings in some safe lower yielding things (tuck them away and forget about them until you have the time to study investments more carefully).
I really don't see anything wrong with that approach. Then again - I'm not a guy who's into the "mine is bigger/better/whatever" approach. I'm just a woman who's looking at things long term. Robyn
Yes you boomers are lucky to dodge this era.
Joke is on us.
Even 5% CDs look marvelous now
For me it's not important.
I wanna do big things.
I'll risk all i have and start my business.
After that boom or bust.
I couldn't care less.
These things are not in my control : GDP growth, interest rates, inflation, demographics...etc.
What can we do sometimes
I wish you and your husband happy retirements.
Hope you're doing ok and so nice to have people like you here
There are times to be cautious, and this is one of them.
Every time is a time to be cautious! If somehow we muddle into a time when nobody feels the need for caution, that's a guaranteed harbinger of impending disaster.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
You want to keep putting money in at Dow 17.5K....go right ahead. Another 15% rise gets you to above Dow 20K.... a level never before seen. I see limited upside and a whole lot of downside right now.
I see nothing... no downside, no upside, no stasis, no growth and no collapse. I see nothing, and invest as if there were nothing to be seen. Because... what is there really to see?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55
As long as the market goes up? What if it doesn't? In the long run. What if it just keeps going up and down and up and down and up and down. With little upward progress. Do you have a game plan for that? ...
What is "the long run"? 10 years? 50 years? If worldwide stock markets essentially just oscillate for decades and decades, making no concerted progress, then I'd argue that we have a worldwide calamity. The crisis would be far deeper than a few stalwart buy-and-holders getting stuck. Pension plans and sovereign wealth funds would collapse. The Saudis and Kuwaitis would be back to selling camel-manure at the market. The Chinese and the South Koreans would be back to rice-paddies. The Germans would be back to chocolate-bars and leather pants. And Americans would be back to cowboys and ranch-hands.
Eventually markets have to forge ahead. It's not a guess and it's not idle wishful thinking. It may take considerable time for "eventually" to arrive. But some of us have time. Some of us might eventually have 100+ year careers as investors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55
...I think the best advice I can give to younger people is to concentrate on one's profession/career/job/business. So you can maximize your earnings. And then save a bunch of it. ...
This is good advice. But what about the kid who joined a start-up while still a teenager, got vested in stock-options, cashed out just before a pullback, and is now sitting on $15M - at age 27? He went back to grad school, and is now teaching programming at a community college. And he's got 40 years until retirement. Can he possibly earn/save enough going forward, compared to his net worth?
I can't even spell "Fortran", let alone program. But many, many people of my generation are in the position of the aforementioned kid - or were, 20 years ago. This is why I keep reiterating mention of the "sandwich generation" - far too young for retirement, but with enormous ratio of investment portfolio to income. What, besides risky investments, should such people do?
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Darn right; they can read from Dr Suess if they want, as long as the market goes up! Of course, we now will be treated to all the links and charts showing how we are heading toward disaster.
. Robyn
